I would rather give 1/2 point to reduce to no vig, than to buy 1/2 point to -120. Of course, you can't do that for a good reason.
That being said, I'm not 100% sold on the "beat the close" theory. I've got methods that indicate which way the line is more than likely to move and can get on the better side of a good number. However, that doesn't translate into a winning method most times; esp. at -110. Often times it may reduce your losses, but is not a sure fire method for a winning formula.
This is corrrect, simply beating the close will not guarantee long term wins. You have to beat it by enough to overcome the juice you are still paying. If you lay -5 in the NBA and it closes -5.5, the no vig on your -5 ticket it about -108. So you paid -110 for a ticket with a true value of -108 at game time.
Now if you bet -5 and it closed -6, you paid -110 on a ticket that is worth around -117 at game time. That full point is enough to overcome the -110.
Breaking even can be a daunting task at -110 when tackling a 50/50 betting proposition; almost impossible at -120 for those addicted to buying points or other ancillary costs tacked on (thus increasing the vig on a bet w/ expense).
People may point to ML sports where the vig does vary considerable, but you are then reducing the betting proposition in relation; so the vig is still there in terms of that relationship. Being on the right side is useful and utmost, but the vig is often an overlooked aspect.
It's all about what number you get something at. I will use soccer as an example. I have beat soccer every year for five years and I still do not know all the rules or positions. I certainly don't know anything about the teams or how good/bad any of them are. It's just getting a good number in relationship to the close.
I think in a common sense approach to my dilemma, my method is to evaluate the game w/o any influence; then play numbers at that point. Clouded perception of making a bet because of perceived value probably is not wise; regardless of closing beat or no/low vig - or even best number on the planet. I already liked the U41 in tonight's tilt, so taking U42 -105 was a no brainer; but admittedly only took tampa at the good number reduced thinking it is a fg game.
If you are going to truly handicap, I believe you need to break down a game before the lines come out or before actually looking at a number yourself. If you scan the odds and say "Bulls -6 looks short, I'm going to look into that further", you have already created bias. Whether you admit it or not, you now want to bet the Bulls and are looking for reasons to do it.
In a perfect world, there would be no vig; but then there would be no place to take a bet either. This topic overflows greatly into the legalization of sports betting discussion. Clearing houses could reduce the vig to very low to maintain profit and only bet overflow.