Point Blank – November 30
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #13
The weekend that was on the NCAA gridirons, with many teams having played for the last time; far too many mediocre bowlers not putting their pads away yet; name plaques being removed from many head coaching office doors; and only a limited field having any chance at all to be in the Playoffs on New Year’s Eve (pencil Oklahoma and the Big 10 winner in, with Alabama and Clemson in play-in games this week, and Ohio State watching and hoping for an upset to occur in one of those affairs).
Item: On Sportsmanship and scoreboard/box score impacts (cue Otis Redding, even some veteran coaches need to “Try a Little Tenderness”)
Sporting events provide all sorts of subplots, many of them pertinent for our purposes here, which is why they are sorted through so carefully, the dryness of the box score leaving so many colors and shapes out. Among those prime factors are settings in which coaches show some sportsmanship, reducing what could have been significantly larger scoring and statistical gaps. Yet there are also those in which a coach does something that is not necessary, adding salt to an opponent’s wounds. This week there were some surprising endings from guys like Nick Saban and Jumbo Fisher, who I would ordinarily expect something better from. So with another long read ahead today a musical background will help you along, a suggestion from the late great Otis Redding as a better way to handle those end-games; just “Try a Little Tenderness”…
Every once in a while one cannot help but sit back and wonder what might have been had Redding’s life extended longer than the 26 years and a few months; his voice was only going to get better, and his life experiences were going to add up to give that voice so many different possibilities to sing about.
But now time to tweak the scores and stats from coaches who lacked tenderness, and from a couple that did…
Sub-Item: Alabama 22 Auburn 13 at 0:33
This one really mattered to folks in the betting community because it turned around countless millions of dollars globally when Derrick Henry broke a fourth-and-1 run for 25 yards and a TD for the 29-13 final. It is understandable for Saban to want the first down; in theory there is an Auburn miracle available if the Tigers get the ball back with 25 seconds or so down by nine. That is a bit of a reach, but given what has happened in this series previously, you can forgive Saban that. What you should not absolve is his not telling Henry to simply take a knee once he broke the line of scrimmage, the sporting thing being to just down himself and let the remaining clock run out. That did not happen, even though there was a timeout before the play to give out that instruction, so another seven points get added both for the Bama offense, and against the Auburn defense.
There is another issue here, and it was brought up in a Monday column several weeks ago, when Saban continued to run Henry to the very end vs. LSU despite the game being well in hand. It is easy to understand a coach wanting to wrap a game up by having his best talent handling the ball, and there is also the motivation of getting that player a Heisman Trophy. But the biggest stages for Alabama are still ahead, a game vs. a talented Florida defense this week, and possibly two playoff tilts. As such, does having Henry carry the ball 19 times in Saturday’s fourth quarter make sense, including all 14 snaps on the last two drives? His load is now at 295 rush attempts and 10 pass receptions, and the former count could have easily been shaved in the LSU and Auburn wins. Henry did manage to escape injury, but will fatigue become an issue?
Sub-Item: Florida State 20 Florida 2 at 0:28
Fisher had no particular purpose after he called a time out with 0:28 remaining, having run the play clock all the way down. It was fourth-and-2 at the Florida 29-yard line, and the outcome was sealed (fortunately this one did not involved any point spreads anywhere). No need for any more points, and there was no need to have star RB Dalvin Cook on the field. But Cook was handed the ball, and like Henry he broke it for a TD, instead of taking a knee to allow the game to run out. Yes, it theoretically helps his minimal Heisman chances, but all it really does long-term as add fuel to the Florida fire in future editions of the series. It should not have happened, but it did, and it also minimalizes that the Seminole offense was only sitting only 275 yards prior to that play.
Of course, there is also the other end of the spectrum…
Sub-Item: Memphis 56 SMU 0 Halftime (63-0 final)
Justin Fuentes has earned his way to Virginia Tech, doing so many little things right in turning around the Memphis program. On Saturday there was also an example of doing it right, even though it created an awkward box score to sift through. Fuentes’ Tigers exploded to a 56-0 halftime lead vs. SMU by playing superb football, especially keeping in mind that the Mustangs came in having dominated Tulane 49-21 the previous week. Memphis QB Paxton Lynch threw seven TD passes in the first two quarters, and was in position to shatter all kinds of records. But Fuentes did the right thing – Lynch and the key Tiger skill people did not play after intermission, and the offense did not score a point the rest of the way (the defense did tack on a TD on a fumble return). Memphis managed to run 8:52 through only 14 snaps in a long fourth quarter drive that nearly ended the game, being stopped on fourth down with 0:28 remaining.
That result leaves bad statistics out there, since one can only wonder how bad the game would have been had the Tigers kept attacking. But the fan of the sport can work around that, and admire Fuentes for showing some class. As did Butch Jones…
Sub-Item: Tennessee 53 Vanderbilt 14 at 5:00 (53-28 final)
Think about what could have been for Tennessee, which led both Alabama and Oklahoma in the second half, two teams that could end up playing for the National Championship. The Vols were talented enough to be there, just not yet polished enough to finish. That polish has been developing, and while a quick glance might indicate there was an end-game failure vs. Vanderbilt, as 53-14 morphed into 53-28, that would be wrong. There were no Tennessee defensive starters on the field in the fourth quarter, with a lot of younger players seeing action in front of the home fans in those closing Commodore TD drives. It takes some game integrity away from the scoreboard and stat sheets, of course, but it was the sporting way for Jones to play it.
Now speaking of corrupted stats…
Item: What do you do with the Baylor/TCU statistics
How about this, not a damn thing. In a game played through a heavy cold rain the box score does not tell us anything useful about either offense or either defense. So what do I do with it? Nothing. I will treat the game as though it never happened. Other sources won’t, which will leave messes to clean up, and I dread how many times a scribe will write, or an announcer will enunciate, something about Chris Johnson’s bad passing statistics, but his 7-24 night does not represent his abilities at all.
Item: Oklahoma just missed out on seven straight “Double-200” games
While some stats do not need to be counted at all, some are more than allowed to be adjusted a bit to set a proper contest. After that humbling loss to Texas, when the Oklahoma offense was far too much air raid, to the detriment of the talent on hand, the Sooners responded by running the ball more than 50 times in each of the next two games. When you have Samaji Perine and Joe Mixon you do that, which does not detract from the passing game; it actually enhances it. In putting together a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run that should have the Sooners locked into a New Year’s eve Playoff slot they should have accomplished the “double” of both running and passing for over 200 years in each game. The one failure was only throwing for 180 at Oklahoma State on Saturday night, but that is only because they did not have to throw the ball all that often (Baker Mayfield was an efficient 17-25-180, with two TDs and no interceptions, when they did).
This is a superbly balanced offense, one loaded with NFL talent in the skill positions, and they will provide a huge challenge to any of their potential Playoff opponents. The key is that after struggling at Tennessee and losing to Texas, they favored the talent over the playbook, instead of forcing a system that was not the right way for this bunch to play.
Item: Is the North Carolina defensive depth an issue?
One of the defenses that could possibly match up against the Sooners is the improved Tar Heel unit, which has made good strides under Gene Chizik. But now that things are getting serious, let’s take that improvement with a grain of salt – there was really only one way to go for a team that was a disastrous #117 in the nation in allowing 497.8 yards per game last year. And no, you do not excuse that defense for being on the field too much because of the Larry Fedora tempo – they were also #115 in yards-per-play allowed. They stunk.
A few weeks ago that unit was a topic here, focusing no how there may have been some misleading scoreboard and stat charts on consecutive weeks, when they rolled out to halftime leads of 38-10 vs. Duke and 31-0 vs. Miami before seeming to coast late. It sounded plausible that the defense may have been quite good, but then coasted, in allowing Duke to finished with 31 points and 533 yards, and Miami 21 and 425. But as things get real serious now with the Clemson showdown approaching, it is time to re-visit.
Two weeks ago the Tar Heels were in a real game, a competitive battle vs. Virginia Tech, and the Hokies scored TDs on each of their final two drives to send it to OT (111 yards in 13 plays on those marches). This past weekend they never did get command of N. C. State, allowing 30 points and 514 yards, and in the second half the Wolfpack had TD drives of 82 and 92 yards. Again, there was a degree of scoreboard control, the lead never getting below the final margin of 11, but it is now a fact that the Carolina defense has allowed 83 points in the second half over their four November games (not counting the Virginia Tech FG in overtime). Is the depth there as they step up to face their toughest challenge of the season?
Item: Is the Stanford defensive depth an issue?
It is one thing for a defense like North Carolina to fade a bit late in the season; that would not be news. But it is another matter entirely when it is the Stanford defense doing the fade. Yes, the Cardinal have been up against some big-time challenges the last three weeks, but to allow 89 points over three games on their own field (Notre Dame also had a TD on a kickoff return) is alarming, especially with 92 passes being thrown without a single interception.
Want something even more troubling? Aiding the cause of the defense was Oregon only getting off 47 snaps and Notre Dame 60, because of the game flows. Yet those two offenses averaged more than 9.0 per snap. This was the youngest defense David Shaw has fielded since taking over at The Farm (12 underclassmen on the two-deep), but they have not necessarily developed as the season went on in terms of either tactics or depth, and it has taken three wins in games in which they allowed more than 30 points for the Cardinal to have made it to this point at 10-2. Now that defense faces a major challenge against a Southern Cal offense that dinged them for 31 points at 7.1 per play earlier, without a single turnover. And kudos to Kim Helton, for getting the HC position that he showed he deserved.
Item: -16 First Downs and -274 yards
That was the Michigan deficit in the two showdown games vs. Michigan State and Ohio State, both in Ann Arbor. It shows how much work there is to do for Jim Harbaugh to get the Wolverines to the level they want to be at. Harbaugh wants to build the identity of being a physically tough team that will win the battles in the trenches, but they came away with only a combined total of 119 rushing yards in those defeats. There is work to be done.
Item: South Florida really is a Willie Taggert team now
Meanwhile Willie Taggert has indeed put his stamp on the South Florida program, after what had been a sluggish start, just 6-18 through his first two seasons. But Taggert is playing a lot of his own recruits now, with 32 of the 44 players on the depth chart returning next year, and the stamp he has put on the program was in exhibit in a terrific November run that may have fallen below some radar screens.
The Bulls put together a 4-0 SU and ATS run over the final month, beating the market expectations by a significant 89 points, and you did not have to look far to see why – they out-rushed those four opponents by a commanding 1,211-367. Think of the fun ahead, with QB Quinton Flowers and RB Marlon Mack only sophomores, and the top three in receptions being a junior (Rodney Adams), sophomore (D’Ernest Johnson) and a freshman (Chris Barr). That they were this good this early speaks volumes about the potential there is going forward.
Item: Put the Tulsa/Tulane ending on a special shelf
In the Hall of Fame of misleading final scores, create a special shelf for Tulsa 45 Tulane 34, with the Golden Hurricanes closing at -9. When Jordy Joseph threw a TD pass to Andrew Hicks with 7:48 remaining it was 34-24 Tulane, and a Green Wave team that had played with a lot of passion that night to send HC Chris Johnson out on a winning note (his dismissal had already been announced earlier in the week), was on their way to a win. It did not happen.
Tulsa countered with a 75-yard TD drive to make it 34-31, and the first pass Joseph threw after the TD to Hicks also went for a score, this time the wrong way, a Pick-Six for Tulsa’s Craig Suits. The Golden Hurricanes went to the lead at 38-34.
Then came the football drama. Instead of being shell-shocked by throwing away the lead, Joseph settled down to lead Tulane on a long march, beginning from the 14-yard line and reaching the Tulsa 16. All of the feel-good was out there, Joseph redeeming himself, and the team playing with effort pride to close it out on a high note for Johnson. But on a third-and-9 play with 1:27 remaining, Joseph’s pass was intercepted by Kolton Shindelar, who instead of taking a knee bolted 91 yards for a TD. Tulsa went from being down 34-31 midway through the fourth quarter to winning by 11 without the offense ever taking the field again.
Sometimes football simply happens, through illogical sequences that make the sorting process even more challenging. Which takes us to Fresno…
Item: Colorado State’s “special” turnaround
Despite needing a win to bolster bowl hopes, Colorado State seemingly came out flat and disinterested at Fresno on Saturday night, and when Watt Bryan missed a FG with 1:26 remaining in the first half, the Rams were doing to head to intermission down 24-7, and have a difficult time getting their batteries recharged. But the defense did hold Fresno State to a quick three-and-out on the ensuing drive, and Joe Hansley returned the punt 61 yards for a TD, cutting the deficit to 24-14. The Bulldogs then ran the ball on the only remaining play of the half.
How did the second half begin? A 96-yard return of the kickoff for a TD by Kevin Nutt. The PAT was blocked, but without having a single offensive snap, Colorado State put 13 points on the board in less than 1:00 of football time, and the momentum of the game turned, as the Rams went on to win 34-31. Assessing these cycles is not easy, but in having to sort through the psyche’s of young athletes, those momentum swings are an integral part of the post-mortem process.
Item: About that Air Force passing (it matters when the opponents are prepared)
There is something else you may have missed from the late-night Saturday board, and it does become a big factor in the Mountain West championship game between Air Force and San Diego State this week. It has been noted here on the past couple of Monday’s just how effective Karson Roberts and the Falcon passing attack have been down the stretch, but now it gets a question – is it that the air game has improved so much, or is it that opponents have been caught off guard by not preparing for it?
The yardage counts were still outstanding in the last two games, 446 yards on 32 attempts. But six of those 32 passes were intercepted, three each by Boise State and New Mexico, especially for a Lobo defense that only had nine interceptions through 10 lined games prior to Saturday’s kickoff. That category becomes of extreme importance this week because…
Item: San Diego State was +19 in turnover ratio in going 8-0 in Mountain West games
You do not get much more old school than Rocky Long, and for his Aztecs to dominate their half of the Mountain West this season only required that – run the ball and play good defense, and you can control what was a weak western division. They did more than control, however, they dominated. State out-rushed those eight conference opponents by a massive 2,267-584, and when you control the line of scrimmage that easily it brings another area squarely into play – turnovers.
When you can power up and run the ball, it means low-risk plays. When the other side can’t run, and is forced to play from behind, it creates defensive opportunities. It added up to a +19 turnover edge for the Aztecs in those eight Mountain West games, and in terms of this week’s matchup note a secondary that came up with 14 interceptions in league play. Meanwhile the offense did not throw a single pick, their last for the regular season coming all the way back at California on September 12.
Avoiding those interceptions was Maxwell Smith, a Kentucky transfer, at QB, but Smith’s season ended with a knee injury early in Saturday’s 31-14 win over Nevada. He will be replaced by red-shirt freshman Christian Chapman, who gave Smith a good battle in fall camp for the #1 spot, but had only seen action in two games prior to Saturday. The gap may not be all that wide, with Smith only completing 55 percent of his passes at 7.6 per attempt. If that is the case, then a significant part of the handicap does come down to how well the State defense can recognize the way Air Force is throwing downfield these days. Long has traditionally game-planned well against the Falcons, with a 4-0 SU and ATS in the series since coming to State, beating the market expectations by 46 points across those games, but now he will need to tweak those designs a bit.
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