Point Blank – November 23
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #12
The weekend that was on the NCAA gridirons, one providing some plot twists that cannot help but leave the serious fan with a wry smile, appreciating the greatness of the sport, while also anticipating the potential for all sorts of confusion in a Playoff picture that has a chance to get more muddled, instead of clearer, over the two Saturday’s ahead.
Item: Michigan State never had the lead vs. Michigan or Ohio State (Sparty laughs last)
Let that one sink in for a bit. The Spartans should now be in a position in which winning their next two games has them in one of the New Year’s Eve semi-finals, and they owe it to wins in their two biggest games, despite the fact that they never had the lead in either of them, both clinching scores coming after time had expired. It was indeed who laughs last laughing best for Mark Dantonio, especially when you are looking at Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh while chuckling, so with another long read ahead today let’s provide some musical background on the theme, "The Last Laugh" from Mark Knopfler and Van Morrison, a pair of legends that well understand life’s subtleties -
It has been a most unusual season for Michigan State, which has actually been a bit of a disappointment overall, struggling to put away teams like Purdue and Rutgers that they should have dominated, and then playing passive defense against Nebraska to allow for something drastic to happen, which did. More on that one in a moment, but first, despite the fact that they were battling uphill vs. Michigan and Ohio State on the scoreboards through those games, do not neglect the bottom lines –
1st Downs Total Offense
Michigan State 39 680
Michigan/OSU 19 359
Those games were convincing as hell on the field despite the tenuous scoreboards, and they were on the road. And at Columbus on Saturday they were also without Connor Cook. To win those games by 20 first downs and 321 yards at those venues is superb football, and there should not be any question about Sparty being in the Playoffs should those next two games enter the win column.
Here is an intriguing aspect, and I would hope that someone at ESPN would be savvy enough to ask this on Tuesday’s broadcast of the new rankings – does The Committee have the insight to properly look at the Nebraska result? The Big 10 knew that it was an improper ending, but could not do anything about it, lacking the power. The Committee has the power. If someone in that room were to say “You know guys, the way I look at it Michigan State is really 11-0”, they would have a valid point. But by winning out, the Spartans can make it all moot.
Meanwhile the flip side of Saturday’s outcome in Columbus also brings major talking points…
Item: 7 First Downs and 132 yards (where have you gone Tom Herman, redux)
Here is how the Ohio State offense closed out last season to win the National Championship –
Pts 1st D Yards
Wisconsin 59 24 558
Alabama 42 23 537
Oregon 42 28 538
Eight starters returned from that offense, but you could have said nine with Braxton Miller coming back to play WR. On paper they looked like the best in the nation coming into the season. It did not turn out to be, and after failing to ignite throughout the campaign, the production vs. Michigan State was astounding. Note that in each of the three games of that magical late-season run to win the title, they had more production in a single quarter than they did in the entire game vs. the Spartans.
Where did it go wrong? A variety of fingers can be pointed, one of them that I will specifically address in the next header, but the big key may have been the loss of OC Tom Herman, which became a prime topic here all the way back in mid-September. Not only has the Buckeye offense lacked a pace and a dynamic without him, but until QB Greg Ward got hurt, Herman had Houston on the verge of going unbeaten.
This is not the storyline you will read from the Sports Mediaverse, because Meyer has developed such a reputation, and while he has indeed earned much of it, note that a lot of his success came from having a great offensive mind to lean on. Dan Mullen was his QB coach at Bowling Green, then OC at Utah and Florida, and when Mullen left for Mississippi State to coach the 2009 season, Meyer was fine because he had Tim Tebow around for his senior season. But what happened the following campaign? Florida fell from 13-1 to 8-5, the offense producing 107 fewer yards per game, and Meyer’s time at Gainesville ended.
Meyer is a great coach, there is no disputing his success. But one of the things that great coaches do is have top-notch assistants working for them. It may well be that Meyer’s own offensive designs are not all that special, but with Mullen and Herman around available pieces were fit into their proper places. That has not been the case this season, which leads to a couple of key issues, first of properly acknowledging just where the Buckeyes are, and then projecting where they go next.
Item: On rebounding from tough losses (the Gospel according to Ezekiel)
One of those Ohio State players having a disappointing season is RB Ezekiel Elliot, who has been very good, but like many others was expecting more than that. Elliot’s post-game comments following Saturday’s loss exploded across the Sports Mediaverse (of course they would), but they are worth bringing in to play here for those that did not see them.
First let me set the proper tone with an opening quote by Elliot that somehow gets deleted in other places, because the context does matter - “Honestly, I go into every game planning to dominate. It hurts so bad. I honestly don’t know how to react right now. I just wish I was given the opportunity to do more.” That was from a talented young player with a lot of competitive drive. He was caught up in the moment. But what followed did come across as a bombshell -
“I’m disappointed in the play calling. I’ disappointed in the situations that we were put in, and I wish it all played out differently. It is very disappointing. In that one drive that we had where we kind of had some momentum after we scored on the strip-sack, the plays we ran, we ran a lot of gap schemes and we were gashing them. You guys saw that on that drive. We had a lot of momentum.”
“Honestly, we didn’t see those plays for the rest of the game. Those plays weren’t called anymore. I asked for those plays to be called, and they weren’t. It just hurts. It hurts a lot because of how we lost. I feel like we just weren’t put in the right opportunity to win this game. We weren’t put in the right situations to win this game.”
I could write an entire column on this topic, but for now the focus narrows to the key points. First, if a program is under the proper control, a player does not say something like that publicly. As much as Elliot’s competitiveness is respected, there is some maturity lacking. That does raise one of the issues that has surrounded Columbus this season – was here a prima-donna aspect to having so much talent in the skill positions that could haunt the team? But it also goes right to the heart of the play-calling issue, and the fact that the Buckeyes may have genuine limitations in that regard.
Second, of course, is what happens going forward. A huge aspect in NCAA handicapping is evaluating how teams are going to respond off of adversity, with some using it to elevate (a point made here about Florida State last week, in that impressive rebound off of the Clemson loss), while others can crash. As Ohio State/Michigan approaches, it is going to be about a lot more than statistics and matchups in projecting the outcome; this will be a fascinating week for reading between the lines to see what comes out of Columbus.
Meanwhile one other NCAA power showed a lot of class in the way they handled themselves after what could have been a crushing defeat…
Item: Baylor responded to a loss with class
Art Briles and his team were brilliant in their 45-35 win at Oklahoma State, getting a comfortable win (they led by 17 twice in the final stanza) despite a -3 turnover differential, which speaks volumes. And it was also despite the fact that the home loss to Oklahoma the previous Saturday had severely dampened their Playoff hopes. The Bears came out aggressively and with tremendous energy, running 104 offensive plays and going for over three hundred yards both running and passing, while the defense forced punts on seven straight possessions at one point. And much of the second half was under the direction of third-string QB Chris Johnson, after Jarrett Stidham left the game with both ankle and hand injuries.
Baylor may not make the Playoffs, although there is still opportunity. But on Saturday night in Stillwater it became clear that Baylor has arrived.
This being college football, of course, whereas adversity can have one team climb a ladder to escape, it can crush another…
Item: Duke is 0-3 SU and ATS since the Miami ending
And a significant -43 below the market expectations for those games, a little over two full touchdowns per outing. Consider even that to be a bit kind – they trailed Virginia 42-20 in the fourth quarter on Saturday before closing the gap late. That is not something I would have expected from a David Cutcliffe team. But could playing a four-OT marathon vs. Virginia Tech, and then have the draining loss to Miami, in consecutive weeks have been a little too much for their psyche to handle?
The Blue Devils are still playing for a winning season when they head to Wake Forest, and are bowl eligible, but there will be some readying between the lines this week to determine if their batteries have any life remaining.
Item: In regulation -
Citadel/Florida Atlantic/Georgia Southern 54
South Carolina/Florida/Georgia 53
Had FAU and Georgia Southern managed to win their games in overtime, there are folks across the nation that would have put “The Last Laugh” on repeat, and played it over and over and over. It was a feast time for those that complain about the SEC being over-rated, and there really is some food for though in those results – these were not cases of weak sisters getting some bounces to hang around, but instead taking the game right to those big favorites, winning the rushing battle by a shocking 726-339.
The SEC has been good this season, but not great. That is something to remember come bowl time. And it is also something to remember as some programs expect a little too much from their coaches and players…
Item: Will anyone do any better at LSU than Les Miles?
A major handicapping focus in this week’s board will be whether the stories detailing how fragile Miles’ job status hurt or help the Tigers, as they prepare to host Texas A&M in what may well be the last game for Miles at Baton Rouge. Because this is the SEC, and a football-frenzied region, some of the stories are comic book in nature, but these are real-life comics. You can get a taste of some of it here. All Miles has done is go 110-32 as HC of the Tigers, including 60-27 in SEC play. He has been to two National Championship games, winning one. That is absurdly good when competing at that level. So why such a furor right now? I can say without embarrassment that the best starting place is at Point Blank, and what was written a couple of weeks ago.
The expectations for this year’s team were too high, and because The Committee ludicrously puts their ratings out so early, that #2 slot in the first poll got folks on the bayou believing things that were not close to being true. The previous column details that aspect of it, and also noted the realities behind the current LSU team – they could easily be the pre-season #1 for 2016, because of how much young talent is on the roster. Just not this season. They went to Alabama and Mississippi with more than twice as many freshmen as seniors on the two-deep, and you do not win at places like that with so much inexperience.
Do the Tigers need help? Yes, a new OC might not be a bad idea. But replacing Miles? Here is an open wager for anyone so inclined to take it – if the game vs. Texas A&M is to be his last at LSU, I will lay -200 that the Tiger record in the next 11 SEC seasons will not better their record of the last 11. No need to worry about payment; it would be easy to escrow the money.
Of course, LSU is not the only place where expectations may be askew…
Item: Will anyone do any better at Iowa State than Paul Rhoads?
It is easy to understand the frustrations of the folks at Iowa State after the Cyclones saw double-figure leads in the second half vs. Oklahoma State and Kansas State turn into defeats the past two weeks. The debate should be on whether or not there was something wrong with the leadership of Rhoads and his staff that led to those games getting away, or if there was something right that had them in position to win them in the first place. There has already been a resolution by the adiministration, but for now our focus is on the immediate future for the Cyclones, who become a major psychological study before they head to West Virginia this week.
Winning at Ames is not going to be easy – recruiting the kind of athletes needed to compete with the Oklahoma and Texas schools leading the Big 12 is a major challenge, and one that may be beyond reach. Rhoads was brought in because of his local ties and managed to get his teams to compete hard, including three bowl trips, but the personnel is not good enough to take a higher step. The nature of this roster, and their connections to their coach, is worth evaluating, and you can start with a good piece from Bobby Le Gesse of the Ames Tribune. Use this quote from guard Oni Omoile as a preview - “Just doesn’t make it any easier emotionally when he is a guy that took you in, especially me. He was a guy that took you in when most other schools didn’t think you were good enough for a scholarship offer in one of these BCS power five conferences.”
Rhoads will coach the team this week, which means some study ahead – does this become a “win one for the coach” setting, in which the players go all out? Or will there be a level of depression setting in that may drain their energy? The answer to that may well be the ATS answer to that game. And it is not the only case study of that particular discipline on this week’s board…
Item: Win One for the Coach, in the Aftermath (Missouri/Virginia Tech)
Much like determining how hard Iowa State will go for Rhoads is a major handicapping factor, so are a couple of others, as Missouri takes the field after playing the last game in Columbia for Gary Pinkel, and Virginia Tech the last in Blacksburg for Frank Beamer.
Both the Tigers and Hokies gave it what they had before coming up short on Saturday, Missouri simply not having enough, and Tech almost there vs. North Carolina. But I see different paths this week. I believe it is a tough setting for Pinkel and his team, with the last two weeks both being of such an emotional nature that there may not be all that much left in the tank, for a team that lacks firepower to begin with – only 33 points across the last five SEC games. And it was rather Freudian the way Pinkel himself referred to the outcome afterwards - “I didn’t want it to end like this. I know we have another game left, another opportunity. But I certainly didn’t want it to end like this.” For the Tigers, this may have indeed been an end, especially since playing at Arkansas does not create any special motivation.
That may not be the case for Virginia Tech. It is much easier to find motivation this week because the game is vs. rival Virginia in Charlottesville, where there are usually plenty of Tech fans in attendance (the Hokies are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on this trip over the past decade), perhaps even more than usual this time, and because of the ACC bowl distribution (Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida State could all be heading to the Playoffs of a “New Year’s Six” game), a win likely will extend the season for the 23rd straight time, that legacy something to be proud of. I can see the Hokies having something left in their tank, especially since it will only be their third game in 28 days.
Item: Last 3 Games Mississippi Pass Defense allows 1,079 yards
Item: Last 3 Games Dak Prescott throws for 1,115 yards
Just something to be thinking about as you handicap the Side, Total, and Player Props for the Egg Bowl.
Item: Updating the Air in Air Force
Last week there was a take on just how well Air Force is throwing the ball down the field these days, which is creating a diversity making this offense extremely difficult to stop. It was that balance that led the way to a remarkable outcome at Boise State on Friday night – the Falcons won outright as a double-figure underdog despite a -4 turnover differential. Go look up how often that happens, and you will be amazed by the results.
Over the past three games Karson Roberts had thrown 43 passes, which have resulted in 706 yards and five TDs. That is 16.4 yards per pass attempt, a full two yards better than the national leaders (Oklahoma State) this season. And look at what happens when the field gets stretched and opposing defenses have to respect the pass – the Falcons also ran for over 300 yards vs. both Utah State and Boise State defenses that are usually sound against the ground game. Now that explosive attack heads to New Mexico, and it all matters because…
Item: It gets a little tricky in the Mountain West this week
Air Force and San Diego State will meet a week from Saturday in the Mountain West championship game, that is set. So you might think that each team could be a little distracted this week, possibly even holding back a little if they have a big lead late, but not so fast.
The Mountain West has its title tilt played on the home field on the team rated highest by the Playoff Committee. But because those ratings only go down 25 places, neither the Falcons nor the Aztecs are included. So what is the second step? The league uses a composite of four sets of computers rankings – Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley Matrix and Wolfe. Prior to this past weekend San Diego State had a slight edge, but because the difficulty of opponents each team just beat is so wide (Boise State vs. UNLV), that will tighten up. It leads to some more reading between the lines this week, in terms of how the ratings shake out, and just what impact they may have on the game plans for Rocky Long and Troy Calhoun. That home field advantage for next week is significant.
Item: Vernon Adams had more TD passes than incompletions vs. USC
Just to follow-up, since Adams and the Oregon Ducks have been a topic here a few times recently. On Saturday he riddled the Trojan defense for 407 passing yards in only 25 attempts, six of them going for TDs, just five falling incomplete. Over the past three games the Oregon offense has averaged 8.9 yards per play, and that has to make Oregon State HC Gary Anderson and DC Kelaokalani Sitake want to go into a dark place and hide…
Item: Here is how bad it was for Oregon State vs. Washington
The 52-7 final score, making the third straight loss for the depleted Beavers by 30 points or more, certainly paints a dismal portrait. The reality is even more harsh. Three weeks ago UCLA led 41-0 in the third quarter at Corvallis, and Jim Mora was kind enough to have the scoreboard end that way. This past Saturday it was 52-0 Washington with 5:57 left in the third quarter, and Chris Petersen also chose to not have his team score again. But Petersen had to work at it.
After scoring on their first drive of the second half, running the ball on 10 of those 11 plays, there were nothing but runs the rest of the way (if you want the specifics, 43 of 44 second-half snaps were runs). The last three Washington drives got to the Oregon State 16-yard line, the 15 and the 10. On each of them Petersen chose a straight handoff into the line on both third down and fourth down, essentially letting State know what was coming, and that is how points got kept off the board. Had the Huskies tried at all, it would have taken nothing for three more TDs to have hit the board.
At least the Beavers have a quality HC in Anderson to help gut through this rebuilding process, which can keep the attention of the younger players in the right places. What happens when you lack that leadership? 2015 Hawaii happens…
Item: Hawaii has trailed 69-7 at halftime of the last two home games (vs., gulp, Fresno State and San Jose State)
I may have missed some of the particulars in Hawaii firing Norm Chow when there were still four games remaining on the Warrior schedule; it just seemed like a classless thing to do that was not going to bring much upside. If there is more to it, I apologize. But what is the risk that gets run when a program does such a thing? The past two weeks brought home games against unimposing Fresno State and San Jose State, those teams of a magnitude that Hawaii closed at -7.5 for the first of the two games, and it was mostly +7.5 at kickoff on Saturday night. In other words, the Warriors were expected to play even against those two teams over eight quarters. They hardly did that, of course, the final scores being a collective 84-37, coming up 47 points short of the expectations. But those final scoreboards were actually kind…
Hawaii tailed 69-7 at halftime the last two Saturday nights. Given the quality of the competition It was some of the least inspired football I have ever seen. That raises questions about just what to expect when UL-Monroe comes to the islands this week, the Warhawks already having fired their HC, Todd Berry. Might this qualify as the flattest tire of any lined college game of this era? With QB injuries for each side the oddsmakers and key precincts have an excuse to not post an opener, but it will be fascinating to see what they eventually come up with.
In the Sights…
Scroll up a bit, re-read the takes on Oregon and Oregon State, and then go ahead and put #140 Oregon (time change to 4:00 Eastern; 1:00 Pacific) in the pocket. This was a difficult game for the oddsmakers to price, largely because those recent Beaver scoreboards did not come close to showcasing how depleted the team is, and while UCLA and Washington were holding back for key games on deck, the Ducks can let it flow here, giving the seniors a chance to go out in style. A State defense that has had to face 157 rushing attempts already in November has a short practice week to recuperate, and it is even more difficult to do that when the pilot light has long gone out. This price will likely not get any better.
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