Point Blank – October 7
SMU/Houston Prelude – On Being Tom Herman (can playing to the cameras make up for not having a crowd?)…In this matchup, a Texas Ranger is no match for Dudley Do-Right…
While numbers crunchers and “trendsvestites” plod away at what they do, using particular methodologies to try to get edges, a lot of the focus here each day is on looking for the aspects of sport that simply do not quantify easily, yet have a major impact on the outcomes. There is a good opportunity to explore just such a setting when Houston hosts SMU tomorrow night, in front of the ESPN2 cameras, and you can understand some key components of that game flow by putting yourself in Tom Herman’s shoes today.
First, note that if you are role-playing Herman, you woke up to a bittersweet cup of coffee this morning. If you live in Houston you could not help but get excited about the Astros beating the Yankees in the Bronx, adding a sporting buzz across the city. But it is not all good. Here is a serious issue in understanding Thursday’s setting, especially in measuring some aspects of the home field advantage – those ESPN2 cameras are going to show a lot of empty seats. I will get back to that it a moment…
First some prelude. Herman had to be excited about a chance to showcase his program on national television, which means recruits watching his brand of offense in play. I will have to live a lot longer than the actuarial tables project to ever see an OC have a play-calling run better than the one that he put together vs. Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs last year. So now he not only can Herman showcase his system, but a QB in Greg Ward that belongs in the Heisman mix this season, and can set the stage for fully getting into the hunt in 2016 with a big showing. And Herman was also savvy enough to not have his team take SMU lightly, despite the high pointspread and the 69-9 dominance of the Mustangs the past two season.
This week began with Houston players finding a half dozen SMU jersey’s taped to the floor leading up to the team locker room -
And Herman also projected – “For us this is a really, really, really big game. We run into these guys in just about everything we do, from recruiting to media market to you name it. We want to make sure we have bragging rights for the entire year.”
It all sounds great, doesn’t it? But it isn’t. Of all times to showcase the Houston program via those cameras, the Cougars are playing at the exact same time that both the Astros and Texans will be. In a professional sports oriented city in which it is difficult enough to attract a fan base, Herman was thrown a huge curveball in this setting. The crowd will be abysmal, with even the most ardent fans of the University realizing they can stay home and watch all three local teams on television. The rather somber attendance figures are one of those subtle factors in determining the home field advantage quotient is the sort of thing that will be off of most radar screens, but the kind of thing you should be looking for.
But now to where it gets most intriguing of all in terms of Herman’s approach – this one was already about who is watching around the country, than sitting in the stadium. Here is why that matters, and it goes far beyond getting Ward into the Heisman conversation or impressing potential recruits – Houston has a legitimate chance to go undefeated. The Cougars will be favored in every game the rest of the way, and the road trips are only to Tulane, UCF and Connecticut. That means that they are looking at a big-time bowl game, and possibly even on the outskirts of the Playoff conversation.
That is where you want to begin the process of being Herman. Because it is a rare opportunity for the pollsters to be watching, and perhaps many of those on the playoff committee, does this turn into an all-out 60-minute affair, which is hardly the norm in this pointspread range? While sportsmanship might dictate Herman backing off a bit if the game gets out of hand, in truth the best thing that he can do for his program is to keep his foot on the pedal. It is a rather unfortunate reality of the way the structure is designed these days, but a savvy coach has to play to that reality.
Plenty of food for though here, and a good exercise in thinking outside of the usual foundations, the kind of exercise that will help to build out your handicapping imagination. In particular, when you see lines in this range, put yourself in the shoes of the coach that is favored, and you may find some times in which the particular circumstances do create intrigue.
In the Sights, MLB…
As will be the case here throughout the playoffs, the Point Blank bullpen will be myself and all-around good guy Eric Strasser, of PalmTree baseball. You can read our opening to this year’s post-season right here, which includes a recommendation on the #934 Pirates Run Line tonight, and now there is something else for the pocket as well, a series ticket on #882 Toronto. The price may not look not cheap, but the -240 is more than fair value for this matchup. I would suggest playing your normal unit size, which will mean the return of slightly less than a half unit.
Texas faces an uphill battle across multiple fronts. First of course is that phenomenal Blue Jay offense, which almost set the rather unique standard of scorning a full run per game more than any other team (127 more than the Yankees). But how about this for a unique way to look at the teams, from Eric (through the playoffs, his takes will be in italics) – I have to think that if you took the starter at each position from the two teams and had to choose one, the only possible Ranger to be picked is (Rougned) Odor at second base. I wouldn’t even choose him.
So if Toronto has the better player at every position, can Texas make it up with pitching? No. The Blue jays are no slouches on the mound either - The starting rotation doesn’t get much credit because when people think of the Jays they think about the offense. Looking at the four best starters ERA’s in the American League after the All-Star break, David Price was number one. Marco Estrada was number two and RA Dickey number four. Marcus Stroman didn’t qualify based on innings pitched but all he did after coming back from knee surgery was 4 – 0 with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
Note some of the timing of that pitching surge had to do with Troy Tulowiztki coming on board, a major defensive upgrade at shortstop over Jose Reyes, and a great move for the overall energy of the team because Tulowiztki busts a gut to get to every ball, something Reyes stopped doing a while back. Which leads to another under-rated notion about the Blue Jays – they finished #1 on the PADE (Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency) scales.
Let’s also add something to the starting pitching debate – Yovani Gallardo may be the only right-hander going for the Rangers in this series, and while Toronto was good against right-handers – compiling a .266 (#5), .335 (#1), .455 (tied for #1) slash line, with a .791 OPS that led the Major’s, against left-handers it was an even better.278/.354/.463 with a stunning .818 OPS. All but batting average earned a #1 ranking. Add it all up and you have a team that may have only turned in a 93-69 record, but they out-scored the opposition by 221 runs. Only two teams in this millennium have bettered that, both in 2001, the Mariners and A’s.
Eric’s conclusion - I can see only the narrowest of paths for the Rangers to advance. They will have to out-slug the Blue Jays and get much better pitching than the numbers say is possible. I think the Rangers will be lucky to win a game and the Jays should move on without much trouble. I echo that. So far I have not seen many props on a quick Toronto win, or a sweep, but there is plenty of time to sort through them before first pitch on Thursday. If the series price is all there is it is still not bad, since the ticket has a chance to be turned around quickly.
By the way, there is still time to enter into the "How many times in the NL Playoffs will any team score five runs or more" contest, which was posted in the earlier Wild Card column. The winner gets an autographed copy of Eric's book "Betting Baseball for Profit". The entry list is pretty good so far, but closes at Cubs/Pirates First Pitch tonight. You can enter in either of the threads.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)