Point Blank – September 15
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #1
And now for the week that was across the NFL gridirons, with the networks kind enough to show us some game action in between DraftKings and FanDuel commercials. Charles Mackay would be rolling in his grave for missing a shot at this ("In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it..."), but it is not the time or place for that discourse just yet. The quality of play was poor, but the markets picked enough winners to cause some sweating behind the counter. Let’s get to it, but first one “housecleaning” matter; beginning tomorrow the posting time for this column will get pushed back to Noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific. As the MLB heads down the stretch there are going to be some shops waiting a little later to post their lines, especially for non-contending teams, and that will bring the ability here to incorporate more reflections on the early market activity.
Item: Shed no tears for the men behind the curtains
Yes, you have likely already glanced through stories about how tough Sunday was for The House, a combination of too many favorites winning and covering, which not only cashed a lot of straight tickets, but also congregated on teasers and parlays in a way that led to an uncomfortable bottom line. But for those that do not have to deal with the suits upstairs when the accounting is done, there can actually be some subtle smiles. A savvy bookmaker will often root a bit for the players in the early going – the more confidence they develop, the more likely they are to reload when they run out of funds, which is usually inevitable. And with Monday bringing a pair of Dog and Under results, the last leg for so many parlays not getting completed, what could have been a historical loss will turn into a much different bottom line when most properties do their figures this morning.
Item: Since I do have to say something about the Giants/Cowboys ending
I will make it brief - of course Tom Coughlin/Ben McAdoo/Eli Manning and anyone else involved got it wrong. You can easily look that up and find it written elsewhere; for once the Sports Mediaverse was handed something that could not be screwed up in the post-mortem, Coughlin’s mea culpa (“It’s my fault at the end of the game. There’s nobody to blame but me.”) and Manning’s follow up (“That’s 100 percent on me. It can’t happen.”), spelling it it out well. Yet that was only the immediate aftermath, before it got even more bizarre.
Here was some follow-up, from RB Rashad Jennings, that is simply mind-numbing – “On the first-down play, I was told ‘Rashad, don’t score’. On second down, ‘Rashad, don’t score’. I was tempted to say, ‘Forget it’, and go score because I could. But I didn’t want to be that guy. But definitely, I was asked not to score.”
Seriously? Apparently, yes. From Manning – “I informed Rashad, if they let you score, do down at the 1-inch line and don’t score. It’s my mistake. It did not come from the sideline.” And this is from a QB in his 12th NFL season.
Here is what matters from a different direction– the Cowboys won a game despite a -3 TO differential, including going 72 yards in six plays to score without Dez Bryant on the field. NFL teams do not win often with -3’s, especially with a key offensive weapon missing. To have opened 0-1, and then face a tough cycle ahead without Bryant, would have been ominous. They avoided that, barely.
There is naturally a flip side to this, concerning the Giants, which I will get to in a moment, but first let’s examine that same concept from another Sunday playing field…
Item: How the hell does a Super Bowl favorite go +2 in TOs, +1 in Defense/Special Teams TDs, and LOSE?
Give the Seahawks a +2 turnover advantage, and a +7 on the scoreboard from Defense/Special Teams, and even if you are as good as they are, you should lose in low double figures. If you are weaker, you should get blown out. The Rams had those disadvantages, yet won anyway.
If the first thing you do in your post-game analysis is to check the yards-per-play category across the NFL box scores, you are not doing the wrong thing. It is actually a strong starting point, in an era in which per-play efficiencies across the board mean more than total accumulations. What you would find from Seattle/St. Louis was a 2.1-yard advantage for the Rams, 6.4 vs. 4.3. Only one other game matched that, Cincinnati’s domination of Oakland, although in truth that one would have been much worse than 6.1 vs. 4.0 had the Bengals not backed off.
So establish some key bases from that result, for while it is only one game, there are some realities brought to light. First is that the St. Louis defensive front is so very legit. There is an awful lot of talent blending together, which brings all sorts of tactical options for Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams, and a depth to stay aggressive for the full game. After a slow transition to the Williams playbook last year they picked it up in a major way as the schedule progressed, and a top three finish on the Football Outsiders charts is within reach for 2015.
Then there is the flip side, which was presented as a lead topic two weeks ago, concerning the issues of the Seattle OL. Naturally that group had a rough go against one of the league’s beset defensive fronts on the road, their single toughest matchup of the season just happening to come in the opener. It was not a shock to position coach Tom Cable, who stated afterwards that it was “kind of what I expected, quite honestly.” But this group has some work to do, and with trips to Green Bay, Cincinnati and Dallas before their bye week, it will not be an easy transition.
There also has to be the mention of Kim Chancellor’s absence, with replacement Dion Bailey falling down on that 37-yard pass from Nick Foles to Lance Kendricks that tied the game in the final minute of regulation. Bailey did not have a bad game overall, so there are apparently no notions of reaching a compromise in time for Aaron Rodgers this week (Chancellor forfeited $267,647 by not playing yesterday), but at his best he is not a replacement for Chancellor.
The Seahawks are still an awfully good team, as strong as any in the league, but the current issues are genuine. To lose the YPP by 2.1 should create an echo that you hear a few times as you adjust the power ratings.
Item: S/T Time - Back to the Giants, and other defenses that could not make plays
Now back to the Giants. If it was a good thing for Dallas to win with a -3, it is naturally a bad thing to lose with a +3. But it should not come as a shock – the New York defensive issues were written about as a lead topic in August, with injuries making it difficult for Steve Spagnuolo to get his playbook installed (“Steve Spagnuolo faces Giant headaches”).That defense was on the field for 68 plays Sunday night, and did not come up with a sack, despite 45 Tony Romo drop-backs, allowing 6.4 yards per play. They did have three takeaways, but a couple of those were of a rather fluky variety. When the game was on the line, they could not make a play. They were not alone.
There were a few defenses that did not come up with a sack or a takeaway, which I refer to as S/T as a quick box score read, and what is significant is that like the case of the Giants, a couple of of them were already under the microscope. That S/T category is so essential in 2015, because you are not going to make stops by sitting back and trying to play contain. The rules just do not allow that; it is more about being disruptive if you are going to succeed. Here are the teams that came up empty in that category, naturally all four going down SU and ATS -
Zero S/T counts on Week #1:
CHICAGO (53 snaps, 6.1 YPP)
INDIANAPOLIS (55 snaps, 6.2 YPP)
NEW ORLEANS (57 snaps, 7.5 YPP)
OAKLAND (65 snaps, 6.1 YPP)
Yet no major surprises on this list. There were “Camp Questions” takes on the Saints and Bears back when the season was in preview mode, the Colts have a precociously young DL, and the Raiders are still the Raiders (more on them in a moment). These are defenses with legitimate flaws, not groups that merely had a bad Sunday afternoon (and the Saints had a terrible, terrible day). Make the S/T category a focus of your early-season Post-Mortems, and a continuing part of your quick-read process, and it will help you to appreciate what it takes to win on the field in 2015, and at the betting windows.
Item: Peyton Manning got sacked three times in the first half
Does there really need to be much said here? No player got as much coverage on this page in the second half of 2014 as Manning, with his fastball losing its zip, and in putting Ravens/Broncos Under “In the Sights…” last week there was also discussion of the transition to Gary Kubiak’s offense, which is putting Manning under center a lot more, something that is not a good idea given his diminished mobility. So I will keep it short to avoid redundancy, but having had all of the off-season to get healthy again, the fact that the Broncos have not scored a touchdown in any of the 20 drives Manning has led since the start of the pre-season speaks volumes.
Manning was sacked three times in the first half on Sunday. He had not been sacked that many times in a full game in two seasons. And as bad as the overall passing game was, much of that was without Terrell Suggs on the field in opposition. The downside here is that it finally has become apparent to the markets at large – the two games between the Broncos and Chiefs had closing Totals of 50.5 and 49 last year, now there are already 41.5’s out there in key precincts for Thursday night. Mackay might have been pleased to know that some markets are ruthlessly efficient, even if that does make our task more difficult.
Item: Pay attention to Tyler Eifert’s day
The Bengals had a chance to be truly dynamic last year, when the NFL opened up the rules in a way that made it tougher for defenses to check bigger and more physical WRs and TEs. With A. J. Green, Eifert, and Marvin Jones, plus good depth from Mohamed Sanu, there was the potential for a major down-field passing game. It did not come together, because that projected starting trio was never on the field. On Sunday they were, and Eifert’s 9-104-2 line jumps off the page. At 6-6/250 he has a tremendous upside, especially in a league in which Graham/Gronkowski were tough enough to handle under the old rules. When he works the middle of the field it creates even more room for Green, Jones and Sanu on the outside, and with a talented one-two RB combination of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, there is no excuse for Andy Dalton to not take a step forward this season (unless he genuinely has reached his ceiling already).
One wonders how far out Sunday’s win at Oakland could have been stretched, with the Bengals getting to 33-0 in the third quarter before backing off. Of course it also means that we have to address…
Item: The Raiders did it again
This was a topic in several of these Tuesday review sessions last week – the Raiders were consistently worse than the scoreboards and box scores could show, but made a habit of scoring late TDs in one-sided games when the opposition had backed off. On Sunday they did it again.
The final counts will read 13 points, 16 first downs, and 246 yards. When they got the ball with 12:46 remaining, those categories were zero, 10 and 142. On the first TD drive they had to convert on fourth-down twice. They were flat-out dominated, much worse than the official counting will show, and that needs to be a part of your power rating focus already.
Item: Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown were one-two in rushing for Cleveland
Since part of this week’s theme is addressing particular pre-season concerns, and how several of them manifested on the playing field, here is yet another. A month ago there was a take on how little upside the Cleveland RB rotation was bringing, and on Sunday there may have been an all-timer – has any team in NFL history had their two leading rushers be their first- and second-team QBs? It is a difficult item to look up, but I would be willing to bet it at pick’em.
With Johnny Manziel possibly starting this week there will be a lot of attention to the Cleveland offense, but while he is not ready for this load anyway, it is even more of a problem in not having a lead RB to take some of the pressure off. The Cleveland RBs managed just 46 yards on 20 attempts, a meager 2.3, and there is not anyone that is going to command the respect of a defense. Now let’s factor in more about Manziel, and another young QB that struggled on Sunday…
Item: Avoid the over-reactions to Jameis Winston in Tampa
The Sports Mediaverse could not help but have a field day with the Tennessee rout of Tampa Bay, clean-cut all-American guy Marcus Mariota winning decisively over Winston, someone that many are ready to not like because of some of his off-field issues. And while they may be correct concerning the latter, with the jury remaining out for a long time on that front, from a purely football standpoint you do not want to over-react to that showing. Winston should struggle early, given the circumstances.
Consider the Winston situation to be much like Manziel’s last year. While both brought a tremendous amount of sizzle out of college, you just do not go from being a college sophomore to being a successful starter in the NFL. It just does not happen. There were 24 first-round picks that became opening-day starters since 1980, and Winston is the only one to have done it after his sophomore campaign. For all of the physical tools a player might possess, there is so much football to be learned, and both are in the process of taking those classes. Manziel simply may not be good enough, but Winston is another matter.
Will Winston struggle to read defenses this season? Yes. Does he have the ability to adapt? This is the silly part – while there were so many media takes on his lack of maturity and intelligence following Sunday’s poor showing, this is a player that was admitted into Stanford, and Winston’s Wonderlic score was 27 this past spring. For comparison, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees scored a 28. He has the ability to figure it out.
I like Mariota a lot, a player with all of the tools to have a long and successful career, but to compare him with Winston right now is unfair to the latter – Mariota had four full years at Oregon (he red-shirted as a freshman), and played in 14 more games. This was a substantial difference in their preparation for Sunday’s stage, and there is indeed a gap between them because of it. That gap will narrow over time, and Winston may turn out to have more upside.
By the way, for as disastrous as Winston’s showing is being portrayed, of those 24 rookie starters, his passer rating on Sunday checked in at #11. As always, set some perspective before making judgments and you can remain calm through a frenzy (that one was for Mackay).
Item: And sometimes veterans (cough, Matt Ryan, cough) also struggle with decisions
Let’s also begin the season with what will once again be a recurring narrative – you should not like QBs that throw interceptions in the end zone, especially on 1st or 2nd down, and throwing INTs with a double-figure lead in the second half of a game is almost unconscionable. Matt Ryan made each of those mistakes last night, and while he will come away with a favorable impression from many because the bottom line was decent and the Falcons got the win, that is not the way to grade him.
Ryan’s interception in the end zone was not necessarily a bad read; it was a slight underthrow that Kiko Alonzo made a great catch on. But his pick to open the second half, when Atlanta was leading 20-3, is horrific for a veteran. Game management says that with a 17-point lead you do not take chances; especially on a third-and-14 play. If there is nothing available you throw the ball away, bring on the punter, and challenge the opposition to work the field. Instead Ryan set the Philadelphia rally in motion, the Eagles only needing to drive eight yards for a TD that reversed the momentum of the game. Ryan has teetered around that B+/A- classification throughout his career, flirting with elite status but never quite attaining it. Last night he showed why.
In the Sights, MLB…
One of the notions I have been putting into play on the MLB diamonds in recent weeks is how also-rans will rise up and play with energy when put in position to play spoiler against a rival. The last time the Brewers were in this position at home they turned in a 3-0 sweep of the Pirates, winning by a collective 10 runs, and as they return from a long road trip I anticipate a good effort, as a chance to knock St. Louis out of first place brings a sense of purpose. For tonight, it means #908 Milwaukee Run Line, daring a slumping Cardinal offense to get a margin.
You will see an uninspiring 2-2/4.14 for Ariel Pena’s season at AAA, and most will not take a second look, but this is what you will find if you do – he indeed struggled at the altitude with Colorado Springs, a 5.52 allowance, but on the road it was a 2.81. And note that after being converted to a starting role he dealt to a 2.37 tune over seven outings, with 9.8 K/9. He is not a great prospect, but he is better than he is being priced.
The flip side is that Carlos Martinez looks vulnerable. He has only dealt to a 1-3/5.60 over his last five starts, and after being pushed back a couple of days two starts back because of back trouble, he has followed up with PPI counts of 20.0 and 19.8. He may not have been ready for this innings toll yet, so with the markets pricing him more on his full-season numbers than current form, there is value to be found.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal
Monday lunches this autumn will once again be a culinary journey across the Las Vegas landscape, a chance to spread out the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL box score page, and re-sort through the games in a process that I believe can be effective for anyone – after a weekend of computer and television screens, sometimes looking at things in a different format can help to spark some ideas. It is also a chance to appreciate a local newspaper that sadly underperforms across other fronts, but does provide one of the better NFL recap editions of any in North America.
There was a bittersweet aspect to Monday, the sentimental choice being Carson Kitchen downtown, and a tip of the glass, even if it was only root beer, to the memory of founder Kerry Simon, who unfortunately passed away far too early, at the age of 60. Kerry had been fighting MSA, and the bell ending the last round sadly rang on Friday.
First a little musical interlude on today's long read. For a restaurant near the corner of east Carson and 6th Streets, time for some Joe Grushecky, and a song that celebrates the subtle sweetness of being able to live your own way over time, something both Joe and Kerry have done (yes, the Las Vegas Carson Street is a long way from Pittsburgh’s South Side, but not for this purpose). If you are not yet a Grushecky fan become one; there simply are not many better people –
Simon had been a big part of the Las Vegas landscape since the 90’s, and many of his creations will live on, but the relatively new Carson Kitchen may have been his favorite. Instead of being under a Hotel/Casino roof he was able to create a fun urban vibe, and the menu focus was on doing contemporary American fare with a twist, which is what he was best at. So the proper setting for this Monday was to pay tribute to those inspirations, and while squinting to find the rushing production of the Cleveland RBs, it was a “Wild Boar Sloppy Joe” (crispy fennel, orange aioli), and the Simon touch with spicy tater tots. It was casual yet creative, a classic riff on his unique style. He will be missed.
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