Point Blank – September 1
Is Illinois better without Tim Beckman (or: “Popping some corks in Champaign”)…Do the Bears have any playmakers on “D” (Camp Questions #19)…Have you noticed how good Anthony DeSclafani has been recently?
It as not surprising to see the betting markets react to Tim Beckman’s dismissal at Illinois by lowering the price range for the Illini opener vs. Kent State on Friday, with -15.5 now leveling off at -14. Ordinarily that would seem appropriate for a team being dealt the blow of losing their head coach at a most unusual time. But might this situation play out differently than the seemingly “common wisdom” has reacted?
First, losing Beckman is not losing a major tactical or leadership presence from the sidelines. He had only gone 12-25 in his three seasons, 4-20 in Big 10 play, and if two of those conference wins had not come at the end of 2014, which got the team to 6-6 and a bowl appearance, he would almost assuredly have been gone then. Part of that was because in audition to the team failing on the field, the rumors about mishandling of player injury situations were already out there. Now an independent investigation has come up with enough information to make the latter such an issue that the school decided to remove him now, rather than let the season begin with Beckman in charge.
Here is the twist that might make this play out differently than the first market reactions. Interim HC Bill Cubit is well-respected by the players, perhaps much more so than Beckman, and because he has 13 years of experience as a HC, five with Widener in Division III and then eight with Western Michigan, which included three bowl trips, he can step in and quickly calm the waters. Cubit is an easy guy to like, something that could not be said about the gruff demeanor of Beckman, and it has also been reported that this season will be treated by the Illinois administration as an audition for him to get the full-time job. As such, instead of a dispirited team losing focus through this shuffle, might it actually provide a breath of fresh air?
Use this, from talented starting QB Wes Lunt to Shannon Ryan of the Chicago Tribune over the weekend, as a starting point – “He’s like a father to most of us. He’s a really good football coach but he truly cares about his players. We’re behind him because we believe in him.”
Cubit still faces a difficult challenge ahead – anything more than two Big 10 wins would be a significant accomplishment But in terms of the first game out of the gate, there may be a whole lot more energy coming from both the players, and the fans, because of Beckman’s dismissal, rather than it being a negative factor.
Do the Bears have any playmakers on “D” (Camp Questions #19)…
Why not stay in the state of Illinois for a look at the NFL as well. In detailing how good A. J. McCarron was on Saturday for the Bengals vs. Chicago in yesterday’s column, I also hinted that the Bear defense would be a topic for discussion this week. That time is now. For while John Fox brings a reputation for being a defensive-minded coach, and in fact helped build a Denver unit that could be the NFL’s best on that side of the ball this season, do not expect much of anything out of the Chicago unit anytime soon. The Bears defense may have to take a step backwards, before any improvements can be made. The bottom line is that in order to be successful, any defense needs playmakers to build around. I don’t see any in this unit.
First note the shuffling going on under Fox and Vic Fangio. Ego Ferguson is slated to start at DE. Rookie Eddie Goldman moves to the top of the charts at NT while Jay Ratliff serves a three-game suspension to open the season. The LB corps does not have anyone that has ever been a full-time starter at their current spot, with Pernel McPhee not getting a single start anywhere last year, and Jared Allen and Shea McClellin learning new positions. Allen is anything but an automatic fit on the outside, while McClellin is playing his third different position. Christian Jones only had five starts last year, so this entire group faces all sorts of chemistry issues. As for depth, the transitions of Lamarr Houston and Willie Young from DE to LB have also been made more difficult because of pre-season injuries, which has caused them to lose precious time.
Then there is the secondary, where two-time Pro Bowler Tim Jennings was cut yesterday (admittedly after having a subpar 2014), and safety Ryan Mundy was placed on season-ending IR with a hip injury. That leaves Kyle Fuller and Alan Ball starting at CB, with Tracy Porter in the nickel packages, and Brock Vereen joining Antrel Rolle as the starting safeties. How about a round of applause for Rolle, who is the only player on this defense that started all 16 games last year. And he started them for the Giants.
It is one thing for a new HC and a new DC to try to install their playbook to a veteran cast, but it is another matter entirely when that cast is not accustomed to playing together. And it gets even worse when you try to find playmakers. If Allen does not make a smooth transition to LB, and at the age of 34 why should he, it will be difficult to go into any kind of attack mode. Fox may indeed be a defensive wizard, but that comes later – there may be nothing more that he can do with this bunch than order up some vanilla designs, so do not let the reputation of the coach lead to some belief that there is upside here. Perhaps not until next season, when there will likely be another slew of new faces in the mix.
About Last Night/In the Sights…
Why, why, why did Bryan Price send Aroldis Chapman back out on the mound with a 13-5 lead in the bottom of the 9th at Wrigley last night? It was easy to understand him bringing his ace closer in for a longer stint, with the Reds hanging on 7-5 in the 8th, but after tacking on six more runs to break the game open, what purpose was served to send him back out there?
I bring that up because it impacts the way that I will play the Tuesday board, forced to take a lesser return with #905 Cincinnati First Half than the full game would offer. But still a good enough underdog payback to play Anthony DeSclafani into Dan Haren, backed by that under-rated late-season notion of many also-rans rising up to play hard when they can spoil things for a rival, which the Reds did on Monday.
Anti-Haren notions were a lead topic on this page three weeks ago, and since donning a Cubs uniform it has been a 1-2/6.31 in which he has allowed eight HRs over 25 2/3 innings. It was simply a bad move to get a guy who does not have much left in his tank, his SwS% having gone from 9.1 to 7.1 and now a dangerously low 6.0 the past three seasons. His GB% is also at a career low 31.7, which will not play well when the wind is neutral in Wrigley, which it is tonight (a slight out breeze in the early forecasts).
Meanwhile DeSclafani has quietly put together a decent season, but is even more quietly having a strong recent run – over his last six starts it has been a sparkling count of 28 Ks vs. only four BB, but that has failed to cause much of a ripple because he only got one win in that span. That is what happens when you run into Zack Greinke twice in a short cycle, bitter losses of 2-1 and 1-0 in which DeSclafani worked well, and his 4-3/2.60 for the full season on the road bodes well for his confidence level tonight.
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