Point Blank – August 27
Roxy, Arne and “Once Upon a Time”…D. J. Readers means more to Clemson than you may think (Camp Questions #17)…King Felix rides the BABIP roller-coaster; The Slings and Arrows of Archer’s Wednesday fortune…Yovani Gallardo is allowing too much contact…
Wednesday brought a truly splendid interlude, a most symbolic Old School lunch with Michael Roxborough, in the U.S. a short while for his usual tour of Del Mar, and Arne K. Lang, at a booth in the venerable Peppermill that afforded perhaps the most fitting of backdrops for the discussion – the emptiness across Las Vegas Boulevard that was once the Stardust, and to the north the soon to be leveled Riviera. It was a setting that provided a rear view mirror for each of our lives, at the same time that our individual vehicles are still going forward, albeit with different routes having been chosen.
There was a temptation to record the conversation, except that some of the stories would have required a name to be bleeped out, either as a personal courtesy or for legal reasons. There is a temptation to write some of the stories, but that same editing would be necessary. There will come a point in time in which the colorful history of how Las Vegas once developed into the global mecca for sports betting will be written, and hopefully it will be Arne as author, having had a prime view of those sometimes murky, yet almost always interesting, waters (about two-thirds of the folks that came up in conversation yesterday had nicknames). And he brings an elegance of penmanship to do it justice.
For now it will be left at that, except to note perhaps a bittersweet aspect of the industry arc when it comes to our fair city. On Tuesday evening there were some delightful moments with a young gentleman from Paddy Power, who generously offered to buy me a few pints of Deschutes Black Butte Porter (and yes, they were not imperial pints, but we do what we can here) . It was easy to see the energy and purpose of where this industry is heading, with the Paddy Power/Betfair merger creating an entity with enough power and scope to be the villains in a James Bond movie. There are visions of vibrant times ahead, with the betting boards not only bringing more options, but taking higher limits. The bittersweet part is that it is not Las Vegas taking the lead on these fronts. Roxy left a leadership void that was never filled; his visions and energies were not replaced because in part they were not replaceable, and also in part because decisions began being made by guys with the top button of their shirt closed.
Once upon a time there was not a busier avenue for sports wagering anywhere than the 100 yards or so between Scotty Schetter’s Stardust betting windows, and those of Jack Lysaght at the Rivera (there were runners who could almost beat 10 seconds flat if there was no traffic). That was where the betting line got hammered out each morning before just about anyone else globally would open. Soon there will be not be a trace of either property. There needs to be a monument near that crossing of Las Vegas Boulevard, perhaps a life-size bronze of Montana Mel at a pay phone. But at least for one afternoon the memories came back to life (and also a reminder that the Peppermill has never changed; consider that a good thing). Now it is time for new memories to be made, but in the emerging global marketplace, it will not be Las Vegas conducting the orchestra.
D. J. Reader means more to Clemson than you may think (Camp Questions #17)
Time to begin making the 2015 NCAA season a part of the processes here, with some news out of Clemson that may mean more than just the blip it would be on most radar screens – starting DT D. J. Reader leaving the team indefinitely for personal reasons. Reader only has four career starts, so it may not seem like a big deal, but when all of the other puzzle pieces are scattered around it does raise some questions, especially for a team rated #12 in the opening AP poll.
How about this for a starting point – there are still 11 players from last year’s defense on NFL rosters as the cutdown dates approach next week. Only four were drafted, among seven Tiger starters lost, but on that list includes big-timers like Vic Beasley, Grady Jarrett and Stephone Anthony. The fact that so many others will still be in pro uniforms this weekend speaks volumes for the talent and depth that 2014 defense had. It also shows how much there is to replace, and things may be getting a bit dicey.
Before Reader left the team there had already been some attrition, losing LB Korie Rogers, DE Ebenezer Ogundeko and DB Korrin Wiggins, all listed as second-string on the depth chart coming out of spring practice, although Wiggins was a starter in nickel packages. And while a full-time starter’s role would have been new to Reader, his departure leaves one Senior on the entire two-deep on defense, starting LB B. J. Goodson.
Naturally breaking in new starting faces is trying enough, but now consider that the depth that was so important last year may now be a major weakness – the current depth chart only has one Junior in a #2 spot, with seven Freshmen. Making things even more difficult for HC Dabo Swinney and DC Brent Venables is that the schedule does not give those two faces much time to learn. Following tune-ups vs. Wofford and Appalachian State they have to travel to Louisville after a short practice week on September 17, then a bye, before they run into Notre Dame and Georgia Tech on consecutive weeks. That means three quality opponents, running three vastly different offensive schemes, before this unit may be close to being ready.
There is still plenty of talent and athleticism on the Clemson defense, but the inexperience could be exploited in those early tests. In this context, losing Reader is a significantly bigger blow than the first glance may acknowledge.
About Last Night (and yesterday afternoon)…
Yesterday the feature topic was about the seemingly bad form of Felix Hernandez, who had an awful bottom line over his previous five starts. The focus was on whether there was something truly wrong with his stuff, or if it was instead a rather long cycle of the Baseball dice being rolled well against him. The markets certainly reacted, with money both against Seattle and to the Over, the biggest investments against Hernandez in memory. So what happened? Hernandez was Hernandez. And Baseball was Baseball.
As noted yesterday, there was nothing wrong with his K, BB or GB% numbers during his slide, but the BABIP and LOB% counts were far from the usual distribution. On Wednesday his K, BB and GB% counts wee again within his usual boundaries, but this time Baseball corrected. Of the 18 balls put in play by Oakland against Hernandez, only one was a hit, for a single game BABIP of .056. None of the three base-runners scored, for a perfect LOB% of 100. Hernandez may not have been all that different of a pitcher from the one that had been getting tagged, but as noted here so often, the geometry of Baseball is an absolute factor, one that forces all short-term numbers to be taken with a grain of salt.
Which then takes us to last night in Tampa Bay, and the bizarre 7th inning for Chris Archer. Archer had explosive stuff against the Twins, with 12 Ks of the 29 batters he faced, and he entered that inning in a 2-2 tie. A few pitches later he left with the bases loaded and no outs, and two of those runners came around to score, leaving him with both a loss, and a single game ERA of 6.00 that does not come close to measuring how well he pitched (FIP says 1.79, in this case a much better tour guide).
So what happened in the 7th? Archer walked Shane Robinson to open the frame, his first free pass allowed. Byron Buxton then bunted to advance Robinson, but laid the ball down so perfectly that he was able to beat it out for a hit. Then it was time for Brian Dozier to advance Robinson and Buxton, and Dozier actually made a terrible bunt. But Baseball Being Baseball, Dozier’s bunt was so bad it became a positive result – a blooper in the air that fell into a no man’s land, just out of the reach of Archer.
Baseball will record forever the plays by Buxton and Dozier as hits, something they do not deserve credit for, nor should there be statistical blame against Archer. Sometimes things just happen, and that is why there are the continuing searches here to go inside the numbers as deeply as possible, to get to those subtle truths that can be elusive when viewing the epitaph of a box score.
In the Sights…
The Blue Jays are having one hell of a road trip, going 6-1 and out-scoring the opposition by 35 runs. The best offensive lineup in the Majors is one that makes it difficult for pitchers that work to contact to survive, and on a warm afternoon in Texas, Yovani Gallardo is the wrong guy to turn that form around. At a more than reasonable price point, #955 Toronto is in play.
Gallardo’s 10-9/3.25 for the full season helps to bring that respectable range, his bottom line benefitting from that rather remarkable June run in which he managed to get balls in play to find gloves, but that is not who he is. There has been an ominous drop in his K/9 rates, from 9.0 in 2012 to 7.2, then 6.8, and now 5.9, and as the season wears on that is only getting worse. Since the All Star break Gallardo has worked to a 5.25, allowing the unsightly ratio of 48 hits vs. only 18 Ks, while also issuing 15 walks. But the sport has been kind – he has actually gone 3-1 through that span, and the Rangers 5-2. It is going to be awfully difficult to maintain that – this team hits the ball too hard to rely on contact outs.
Meanwhile Marco Estrada continues to be steady and effective for the Jays, allowing two runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, and one of the two times he rose above that count was excusable – in a 15-3 win against the Angels in his last outing it was 10-0 in the 4th, and his job was to merely throw strikes from that point. He did, with 67 of 95 pitches in the zone, and no walks, so allowing a pair of home runs with that big of a lead can actually be excused a bit.
I would split this one half straight and half Run Line. It has been two full months since Gallardo last got beyond the 6th inning, and with the Texas bullpen not laid out well today (assume Patton, Freeman and Bass all out because of high pitch counts from last night), there is a good chance of it breaking open in the latter stages.
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