Point Blank – August 26
What now, for King Felix…Be prepared to adjust your Miami defensive ratings big time (Camp Questions #16)…Nothing is coming easily for the Rays these days...
For Felix Hernandez to bounce back well off of a bad game is something that was written about here earlier this season (check this “In the Sights…” take), and something that has been most profitable through the years. Hence his matchup vs. Chris Sale and the White Sox was under the microscope on Friday night, after Hernandez came off of what may well have been the worst outing of his career, getting tagged for 10 runs over only 2 1/3 IP against the Red Sox in Fenway. Fortunately there was not much desire to buck Sale at the price point, but King Felix did not respond well from the Boston drubbing, laboring to a loss against the White Sox, a game in which he had more than twice as many hits allowed (nine) as Ks (four).
The question becomes “now what?” because over the last five outings, the Hernandez bottom line has simply been terrible. He has lasted only 28 2/3 innings in that span, allowing 27 runs on an astonishing 50 hits. His K and BB rates have actually been fine, however, fanning 27 with only five free passes, so how does the savvy handicapper deal with all of those hits?
There can obviously be some consideration for Baseball Being Baseball, but might that be falling into a trap? His K and BB rates were such that those five games actually included FIP counts of 1.32, 2.55 and 2.29. So where is the culprit? Could it have been about missing high in the strike zone, and not getting the usual assortment of ground balls? Actually, no:
Hernandez GB%, L5:
41.7 – 61.9 – 63.6 – 50.0 – 55.0
Since he is sitting at 56.1 percent for the season, those counts are right about where they should be. So if his K/9 has been right at his season rate over the last five, his BB/9 has actually been lower, and his GB% has been right where it should be, what the hell is going on? Let’s look at some of baseball’s roulette, BABIP and LOB%.
BABIP LOB%
.455 58.8
.524 69.2
.273 75.0
.692 40.8
.429 60.0
.296 73.1
Those last two numbers in bold are the MLB rates so far this season. Has this simply been an inordinate amount of cluster luck? Is it just a case of too many balls finding holes, particularly with runners on base? You can make that argument off of the numbers, but rarely do we see a performer of this caliber get stretched out that far over a series of games. One or two bad ones, yes, but this many? How about this for an alternative – has this been a case of Hernandez actually find too much of the strike zone? His 1.6 BB/9 through the five-game cycle is nearly one full walk less per-9 than his career average.
Near the end of yesterday’s thread it was pointed out by poster Jake, a former sinker-baller that was on the verge of switching from AAA bus rides to Major League airports before Tommy John surgery changed his arc, that sometimes what appears to be bad luck for a sinker-baller – too much contact finding openings between the infielders for hits – is often a case of the pitcher getting too much of the plate with his pitches, which makes it easier for the batters to set the geometry. Has that been the Hernandez issue?
It creates a fascinating laboratory setting for this afternoon vs. Oakland, because Hernandez is a competitor, and with his ERA at its highest level since 2007 (also the highest FIP since 2008), there will be some pride to correct. The strikeout and walk counts tell us that he is not nearly as far off of his game as the 8.48 allowance over those five starts would indicate, so the potential for the turn is there. It does leave the key question as to whether the dice have run badly, or if it has been his own control, something you might not see from the traditional method of tracking the category, that has been the culprit.
There has been a lot of market play against Hernandez this morning, money to the A’s as a side, and even some to the Over. I will likely fade a little of that with some First Half Under, not wanting any part of either bullpen. With Chris Bassitt continuing to command the strike zone, reducing the opportunities for big innings, it is a reasonable fit.
About that Dolphin DL (Camp Questions #16)…
There might not be a bigger upgrade to make anywhere in setting the first NFL ratings this season than the Miami defensive front, both in terms of stopping the run, and rushing the passer. The issues that the Dolphins had were addressed here several times towards the end of last season, including being the final take in this column and they were simply bludgeoned down the stretch, their playoff hopes dashed along the way. When they counting was done they checked in at #25 on the Football Outsiders best defensive charts, despite the fact that there is talent on hand, particularly Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon rushing from the outside. There just wasn’t enough of it, both front-line and from the reserve cast, which led to a late-season decline that can create misleading impressions about the overall ability. Now those depth issues have changed, and have changed changed in a way that a defense that was in the bottom quartile of the NFL in 2014 could be in the top group this season.
It starts with Ndamukong Suh up front, creating the big-time playmaker that was lacking in the interior. And while that would seemingly be easy enough for just about anyone to recognize, what that does for the outside pass rushers may not fully be grasped. The Dolphins may be able to collapse a pocket as well as any team, and there may not be a better combination than Suh/Wake on the left side.
What may also be missed is how much the depth has improved. Not only was Suh added, but Terrence Fede is ready for a bigger role after showing promise in his rookie season; Anthony Johnson is healthy again after being limited to seven games last year; rookie Jordan Phillips brings a massive presence inside; and Derrick Shelby can also play valuable minutes. There are a lot of puzzle pieces available, to the point at which free agent C. J. Mosley has not been able to crack the rotation and is in danger of not making the cut. So far in ramping up to the opener at Washington they have been dominating.
The starting defense has not been scored on in the pre-season, but it has not just been what they have done in the live games; this story from the Miami Herald (http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article31839450.html), about their domination of Carolina in joint practices last week, may tell an even more significant tale.
Be prepared to like this defense a lot, and be prepared early. The Dolphins could easily be favored in each of their first six games, which means that momentum could build quickly. Do not view improved defensive statistics as something that might regress to last year; the particular circumstances of that late-season decline are long gone, and there should not be much carry-over at all from those numbers.
In the Sights…
There is far too much price being thrown at Tampa tonight, the Rays now as high as -200 in several key precincts, and along with that comes the adjustment to the other options, which now has #921 Minnesota Run Line in a favorable range. That means time to get in play with a Twins team that has found a second wind, showing a resiliency in putting together a solid weekend in Baltimore, and then a four-run win in this series opener.
The issue for the Rays is one of firepower – they just do not bring enough, which means that wins will not come easily. They are just 1-10 with a -1.5 attached over their last 11 games, and 7-27 in that category since the All Star break. Now they have to try to break through against Tyler Duffey and that intriguing curveball, and it will not be easy.
Duffey worked to a 2.56 over 52 2/3 innings at AA, and a 2.53 over 85 1/3 at AAA, before getting his call-up, but that call did not come at a fortuitous time – opening your MLB career against the Blue Jays in Toronto is a daunting prospect, and the combination of nerves and the best offense in baseball led to an inauspicious debut. Since then he has worked back-to-back wins over the Indians and Orioles, and through three games his SwS% of 10.0 is an early indication of his stuff. On the first look this is not a great setting for the Tampa offense to break out.
With the Total sitting at 6.5 in most stores the run being offered to the Twins is of extreme value, more so than the way it is being priced.
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