Point Blank – August 25
Deciphering Syndergaard’s road “syns”…Did the Colts spend their money on offense wisely (Camp Questions #15)…Charlie Morton is dealing right now…
The Mets are in the midst of some delicate juggling acts right now, preparing for a run into October, while also trying to keep some superb young talent in their pitching rotation from throwing too many innings. Adding to that is the most pronounced Home/Away splits for Noah Syndergaard -
W/L ERA BB/9
Home 7-1 1.82 1.1
Away 0-5 5.05 3.5
That is quite a gap, especially in terms of control, which would seem to explain most of it. But it is also a small sampling, with 64 1/3 IP at home and 46 1/3 from opposing mounds, and for a great prospect it is something that you might want to just let play out, and let his abilities settle in. The Mets may not be doing that.
An article in the Wall Street Journal last Tuesday attempted to shed light on the issue – “Mets' Syndergaard is 7-1 at Home, 0-5 on the Road. Here’s Why”. The sub-heading – “Since the Mets bat first in road games, Syndegaard must sit idly by for an additional 20 minutes or more”. The article goes on to state that the big issue was Syndergaard not changing his game-day routine, finishing warmups at the same time regardless of whether he is at home or on the road. So the task would be easy enough – just change the pattern, have him warmup a few minutes later to reduce the downtime, and he should be fine. New York pitching coach Dan Warthen addressed that in the article. Case closed, and the WSJ has rewarded all of us with useful info that can be incorporated into our power ratings.
Except that it may not be useful info at all. As is so often the case in the Sports Mediaverse, there was another step needed before reaching any kind of conclusion, which was apparently not taken. Syndergaard’s problem was not shaking off the down time after his warmups – in eight of his nine road starts he did not allow a run in the first inning, and across those games he had 10 Ks vs. only 2 BB in the opening frame. He was actually getting out of the gate rather well, the struggles coming later.
That is why watching tonight at Philadelphia will provide the opportunity to see both his stuff, and the body language behind it, to learn. If the Mets had just left him alone to work through the rigors of learning to pitch on the road, he may have been fine. But by confronting an issue too early, might they have put something in his hand that can impact confidence? To change the patterns of this kind of prospect because of a sampling of less than 50 IP could possibly hurt more than it helps. Baseball can be a fragile sport for the psyche, and it will be an interesting case study to follow how this plays out.
Did the Colts spend their money on offense wisely…
When Andrew Luck is running the show, just about any team would have the makings of a first-rate NFL offense. Naturally it makes sense to devote off-season resources to supplying him with weapons, which the Colts did. But did they do it right?
--First round selection of WR Phillip Dorsett? Check. Good upside
--Signing of free agent WR Andre Johnson? Consider it a way to replace Reggie Wayne, and to also give the WR corps some size.
--Signing of free agent RB Frank Gore? Not easy to get excited about a guy in his 11th season that may be a step slow hitting the hole. And that is an issue because…
--The OL needed help, and did not get much.
The Colts were #24 in yards per rush last year, and while the sack rates were good, a lot of that stems from both Luck’s wheels, and his ability to get the ball out. In truth the OL was nothing special. But the only draft pick spent on that group was a #7 on Denzelle Good, who is not a certainty to make the roster. The only other addition was free agent Todd Herremans, who they hope has some life left in his 11th season, but that was offset by losing Gosder Cherilus. Once again it does not look like a group that will get much push in the ground game, and in moving Jake Mewhort from LG to RT, they are taking a bit of a gamble for a player in his second season.
There is not a Pro Bowler to be found in this group. Luck will overcome much of that with savvy and ability in the passing game, but can this line get any leverage in the trenches to open room for Gore? Instead of Dorsett/Johnson/Gore, if one of those additions was subbed out for someone that can contribute more upfront, might this be a much better offense?
In the Sights…
Ever since adapting a delivery modeled after Roy Halladay following an injury in 2012, Charlie Morton has been consistently effective. His 2013 allowance was 3.26, and in 2014 it was 3.72, with some bad luck turning that into a 6-12 personal line. So that 4.06 so far this season might look like he has fallen off, but because he has not reached 100 innings yet, the weight of one disastrous game at Washington early this season is tough to statistically overcome – remove that game, and his ERA drops to 3.36. It is his current form that really brings the intrigue, and it sets up a ticket on #956 Miami Team Total Under.
Morton’s August has been a 2-0/2.52 over four starts, which will not necessarily set off fireworks. But the Pirates went 4-0 in those games, winning by 16 runs, and not only have the usual Morton ground-ball rates been there, but how about 30 Ks vs. only six BB over those 25 frames? In the last two outings, against the Mets and Giants, it has been 17 Ks vs. only eight hits allowed. Because Morton’s season got a late start he may just be rounding into form now, heading towards a peak instead of the fatigue that others have to work through.
The Marlins just do not bring much to counter that form - after scoring eight runs against Jerome Williams in the first two innings of this home stand it has only been six tallies over 42 frames since, vs. an uninspiring quartet of opposing starters (Eickhoff/Harang/Nola/Happ). Mark Melancon will not be available for the Pirates tonight, but having added Joakim Soria the end-game bullpen has the depth to be trusted.
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