Point Blank – July 2
Analyzing Aces: The returns of Moore/Cain/Fernandez (and please feel free to spill coffee on those pitching forms)…You can not afford an offensive hole at 1B…
Thursday brings one of the more unusual MLB boards we are going to see this season, and perhaps in any season – three ace-level pitchers (OK, Matt Cain is not likely to ever be one again; more on that in a moment), all with layoffs of nearly a full calendar year or more, returning on the same day. It is naturally going to provide quite a challenge for both the guys setting the odds, and for those of us trying to beat them, and prepping for that adventure was a big part of the process for me yesterday.
And then came this morning…
There will be on-going notations here of improper statistics being placed in public view; as a prime example there are currently some leading sources still listing the Tampa Bay road record at 22-14, instead of the proper 21-12, because games played against the Orioles at Tropicana Park, when the social unrest in Baltimore forced them to be moved from Camden Yards, are listed as “away” for the Rays. Yes, they batted first. But what is the more important measure of home/away, the impact of ballparks on teams, or the impact of batting first or last? You get the picture.
So how about this from the daily pitching form in today’s Las Vegas Review Journal, and one likely repeated across hundreds of newspapers around North America –
Last 3 Starts W/L IP ERA
Moore 0-3 14.1 6.28
Cain 1-1 19.1 1.86
Fernandez 1-1 20.0 3.15
The absurdity of that makes it one that will be difficult to top, but there is a lesson there in why you cannot blindly trust all of the numbers placed in front of you. The last time any of those three worked from a Major League mound was Cain, on July 9 of last year, and consider that Moore’s “Last 3” includes his final start from 2013, and then two from last April. Just automated gibberish.
So go ahead and spill your coffee over that part of the sports section. Now let’s get down to work…
Matt Moore
Moore had what appeared to be a breakout in 2013, a 17-4/3.29 that comes in view first from most sources, but he was not all that – FIP only pegged him at 3.95, which was just a tick from the AL average of 3.97 that season. He survived a 4.6 BB/9, largely through a .259 BABIP (the AL played to a .296). Then two ugly starts into 2014 it was time for Tommy John surgery, which he had on April 22. To prepare for today’s return Moore has had 21 1/3 IP over five rehab outings, the last two at AAA, and showed decent velocity, even if the command was a bit wobbly.
What to expect? First, the markets may still be grading that 2013 too highly. Second is that he is going to be brought along slowly, with this from Kevin Cash setting the stage – “We’ll be very smart with Matt Moore through this start and probably many more.”
Matt Cain
Cain may be the trickiest read of the three. First there is the difficulty of grading his uninspiring 2014 numbers, because it is not easy to weigh how much of that was due to his injury, which led to surgery for bone chips in his right elbow. Later there was also surgery for a bone spur on his right ankle, and while attempting to rehab this season he has had to deal with a strained flexor tendon in his pitching arm.
Now for some necessary perspective. Cain had eight consecutive seasons of at least 180 IP before 2014 was cut short, and there had already bee a general pattern of decline visible -
FIP
2011 2.91
2012 3.40
2013 3.93
2014 4.58
Yes, the injury impacted the 2014 numbers, but look at the consistency of those drops. Cain has made a career out of a lot of fly-balls that did not turn into home runs, something that a crafty pitcher can get away with in West Coast ballparks. Watch closely to see if he can still do that; otherwise he may not get back near his previous career levels.
Jose Fernandez
There is an awkward question in play for this one – if the Marlins did not have an afternoon home game in which they needed to sell some tickets, would Fernandez be on the hill today? He is the best talent among the returning trio, and one of the best talents in the sport. But having only had 36 Major League starts across two seasons, and never pitching at the AA or AAA level prior to that, does he know enough about himself to work back to health properly?
The Marlins gave him five appearances, and 24 2/3 innings, before this return, and there was finally one at the AA level, but just one. He had decent stuff in that outing (seven Ks vs. two BB), but also allowed four runs on six hits. I am dumbfounded that a team that is 33-46 and heading nowhere would not give him at least one outing at AAA to sharpen up, and ideally two or three.
So what do these returns mean for the pocket?
In the Sights…
There is a temptation to do something with Giants/Marlins Over at 6.5, because that would be the price if Cain and Fernandez were fully on form. They are not likely to be, and for Cain, “form” may simply mean average anyway. But can the offenses bring enough cooperation for that purpose? The Marlins can only fill a small part of the hole left by Giancarlo Stanton, while the Giants are likely to be without Buster Posey.
There is something to do in Tampa, however, and that is to put #963 Cleveland into play. The Indians have dominated this series to a 21-4 tune, with their starting rotation no-hitting the Rays deep into each of the games. Now Corey Kluber brings even better stuff than his predecessors, the Tribe have a fresh bullpen behind him, and what had been an over-achieving Tampa team is now realizing those offensive limitations. When Grady Sizemore is your cleanup hitter, and there is no punch at all coming from the key 1B slot -
AVG OBP SLG OPS
MLB .258 .333 .441 .774
Tampa .213 .275 .317 .592
getting dominated by opposing pitching staffs will be the protocol for much of the season ahead.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)