Point Blank – April 26
The Playoff Passages #8 (Games of 4/25) – A series grows in Brooklyn; Some Kidd-ing with the Bucks rotation; The Warriors earn their time off; Damian Lillard can’t even steal the ball from Nick Calathes...
Saturday brought a lot of food for thought, with Brooklyn beating Atlanta in a manner that hardly called for the term “upset”, and Jason Kidd making an interesting decision that played out well, even if it does not necessarily lead to an easy path in terms of projecting the next step on Chicago/Milwaukee. So time to go to work…
Brooklyn 91 Atlanta 83
Oh how interesting this one is now, both from a basketball standpoint, and that of those that bet on basketball. On the court, there just is not much difference between the #1 seed and the #8 at this juncture. But markets being what they are, respect will have to be shown for historical data, which relishes the opportunity to play the “big favorite” off of a defeat. To many Game #4 will be the very essence of Zig Zag. So let’s look at the numbers, then follow the money, and we are likely to end up with a ticket in our pockets come Monday night. Marketology experience tells us that there is no hurry.
Atlanta came out with passion in the 1st Quarter of the series opener, and the Nets seemed about as disinterested as any team in recent memory for the playoffs. It was 32-20 Hawks after those 12 minutes. Since then these teams have played 132 minutes, and it reads Brooklyn 254-246. Over the full series the Nets have won the boards by +17 and have out-shot the Hawks 48.3 percent to 43.4 on two-point attempts. When playing in Atlanta they dug themselves early holes by turning the ball over, but on Saturday with a home crowd behind them there were only three points off of turnovers for the Hawks in the first half, establishing a Brooklyn lead, and except for an 11-0 run in the 3rd quarter, the Nets held the scoreboard upper hand for almost the entire afternoon.
The gist from watching the series is that Atlanta does not hold physical advantages, and with Brooklyn having competed toe-to-toe since that opening stretch of game #1, the psychological edge to the favorite may also be gone. That means it is a real series now, with Atlanta playing with more precision, and that pretty much being the only true edge. And that edge does not correlate to a team being -4 on the road, which is the new tariff for Monday night. The markets force that off of basketball history, but the current flow in this series, and the relative talent distribution between the teams, does not line up the way that the history of these settings calls for.
Yes, the Hawks should shoot a little better from the perimeter than their 6-30 on Saturday. But Brooklyn is sitting in a position to even the series on Monday night despite Deron Williams and Joe Johnson being a combined 24-76 to this point, including 8-31 beyond the arc. Could the Ziggers even push this one to 4.5?
Milwaukee 92 Chicago 90
Both learning from Game #4, and applying those lessons to #5 in Chicago, becomes a major challenge of interpretation. Jason Kidd won by scrambling his rotation, not only getting more bench time from O. J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, John Henson and Jared Dudley overall, but when the game was on the line, those four played the entire 4th Quarter. Michael Carter-Williams, Ersan Ilyasova. Zaza Pachulla and Giannis Antetokounmpo were nowhere to be found, as Kidd did not make a substitution throw those seven timeouts during the final stanza. Even when there was a notion that his reserves might be wearing down, as Chicago rallied from 87-79 at 3:30 to 90-all in the final minute, Kidd did not waver, and it ended with one of the more memorable finishing baskets in playoff memory, an almost perfect pass from Dudley to Bayless to win it.
So what did it mean in terms of breaking down Saturday? Off of that exhausting affair on Thursday night, the Bucks had fresher players on the floor through most of the closing stretch, except for Khris Middleton, who logged 48:59 in Game #4, before adding 46:21 to that yesterday. It worked. But what does it mean for Monday in Chicago? Will anyone know the Milwaukee rotation before tipoff? Kidd was extremely tight-lipped about that in the post-game, and why not – he has no particular reason to let Tom Thibodeau in on his plans.
What was the key to the flow? Either the energy of the Bucks on defense, or the sloppiness of the Bulls offense, take your pick. Chicago turned the ball over a frightening 26 times, with Milwaukee recording 20 steals, matching the high count for any NBA game this season. That explains how a team can out-shoot the other 48.5 percent to 39.1, and also win the boards 39-34, yet get saddled with a defeat. Here is how Pau Gasol summed up that turnover count - "We're letting them take the initiative, be the aggressor. They're putting us on our heels a little bit. We've just got to do a better job of protecting ourselves, setting our ground and protecting the ball and really making them pay for their aggressiveness.” The Gasol/Derrick Rose/Jimmy Butler trio each had more turnovers than assists.
Golden State 109 New Orleans 98
The Warriors are the team of now, Stephen Curry will be this season’s MVP, and Anthony Davis (36 points, 11 rebounds, three blocked shots) is the player of the future. That is the takeaway as the first piece in the NBA bracket moves on to the second round. The Pelicans made a pretty good account of themselves in this series despite getting swept 4-0, competing to win a couple of times when Golden State did not play at a peak level. But on Saturday the Warriors played their best basketball of the series, which made the game result no contest, with the only drama coming from a late New Orleans flirtation with the pointspread.
Curry was spectacular on his way to 39 points, along with nine assists and even eight rebounds, leading to the following from Monty Williams - "What we've been through playing against Steph sometimes, it's not fair. Steph is like, he's on a different level -- some of the shots he makes, his command of the ball, his ability to finish. The moment doesn't bother him.” Yet he was not even the best player in this series – that goes to Draymond Green, who once again had a terrific overall game – 22 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists, leading to a +18 in his 41:49 of court time. And it is Green that will be such a key the rest of the way – likely Zach Randolph next, then Blake Griffin or Kawhi Leonard, and possibly LeBron. One can not help but get a little excited about the possibilities of those matchups, and now Steve Kerr and his team get a chance to sit back and rest while awaiting them.
Memphis 115 Portland 109
The theme of this series had been the inability of the Trail Blazers to find offensive production from someone other than LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, particularly the hole at the #2 spot. So Nicholas Batum and C. J. McCollum combined for 53 points, giving Portland four players that scored more than 20 in the game, and it was a loss anyway. And it was a loss despite Mike Conley missing the final 16:03 after being elbowed in the face, with Beno Udrih not being able to play at all because of a sprained ankle.
While the Wesley Matthews numbers are easy to see on the offensive end, the Trail Blazer defense suffered an even bigger hit once he left – it became more difficult to hide Lillard on that end of the court. That defense was exploited last night – there were only six Memphis turnovers, just two coming from Portland steals (the Trail Blazers only have four steals from their starting lineup in the series, none from Lillard). It led to a 62-49 lead for the Grizzlies at halftime, and then they piled it on at the FT line in one of the more extensive Barnum & Bailey closing stretches in recent memory – 187 at 1:31 turned in 224, with 37 points being scored over those final 91 ticks, Terry Stotts scrambling it up to the bitter end despite never getting closer than six points in the sequence. Make sure you note that much of that flow was also Portland driving to the basket for five layups, instead of trying to get three points out of possessions, which will unfairly lead to worse Memphis defensive grades than the reality of the game would call for.
Now time to sit back and wait for the medical folks to do their thing – while Memphis winning this series and heading to the Bay area is a foregone conclusion, the health of Conley and Udrih will be prime issues before a game #4 handicap can be developed.
In the Sights…
I am going back to the well with #507 Houston tonight, the second straight appearance for the Rockets on this part of the page, and if you have been following along you know many of the key details – the Mavericks are an old bunch that does not fit terribly well, now made even more fragile with Richard Jefferson and Raymond Felton having to play through injuries, while the Houston upside is becoming intriguing, especially Dwight Howard playing with a high degree of energy and freshness. Her Per-48 rates for this series are 28.1 points, 23.3 rebounds and 4.9 blocked shots, leading to a +50 Houston advantage in 88:44 of court time. And when Josh Smith deals 13 assists over two games, you can see that the rest of the team has the focus in the right place. There are veterans on this roster that want a ring.
But here is what really seals the decision – I am not sure that the Mavericks can play any better than they did in Game #3. Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis competed to their limits, combining for 68 points, and as a team they shot 52.3 percent. It will not be easy for them to get to that level again, and there is a fundamental matchup issue that Rick Carlisle can not solve from this roster – a short back-court was a prime reason why Dallas allowed more made triples than any other team, and it just so happens that the Rockets led the NBA in made shots beyond the arc. Houston is averaging 1.26 points for every 3-pointer tried in this series, the equivalent of shooting 63 percent on 2-pointers. The Mavericks have no answer for that, but at least after tonight can begin an off-season of looking for one.
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