Point Blank – January 27
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Super Bowl Edition…The Pistons lose a cylinder (at the wrong time)...Marcus Paige didn’t have a turnover last night (his teammates had 20)…
I am not going to be much help in terms of picking a Super Bowl winner – this game grades out as one at which either team would be a play at +3, which you will not see between now and kickoff. It is a good line, between two evenly matched teams. But since picking the outright winner represents less than .5 percent of the total wagering options available, it means that there are still a plethora of ways to find an edge. Let’s get to a few of them.
Item: The Pace
Naturally this begins with the Total in mind, but also in terms of setting a scale for Props opportunities. On the first look it is a study of contrasts, with Seattle #31 in seconds-per-snap at 29.4, and New England #2 at 25.5, the Seahawks using an average of 3.4 extra seconds in between offensive plays than the Patriots. But given that these teams combined to win 17 regular-season games in double figures, that is actually not the starting point – it would include too many late-game situations in which they were intentionally working the clock. Since I believe this line is in the right place, and given the matchups expect a close game, there is a lesser chance of that fitting into the equation.
Instead, isolate the Pace counts by First Half and Second Half, and it tells a different tale –
Team First Half/Rank Second Half/Rank
Patriots 24.3 (#2) 26.8 (#12)
Seahawks 28.6 (#22) 30.2 (#32)
That allows you to see the impact that those big leads had on their game management. The Patriots trailed only the mercurial Eagles for the opening 30 minutes, and were nearly two full seconds faster than the #3 Ravens. And from that second-half count, you can see clear evidence of how Pete Carroll manages a lead.
Of course the major question concerning New England and pace is how Bill Belichick decides to attack. As noted often in this column throughout the season, the Patriot offense brings a unique flexibility, one that can have Tom Brady drop back and spread the field by throwing on nearly every down, like that second half vs. Baltimore in the divisional playoff round, when a RB did not carry the ball from scrimmage after halftime; or those jumbo packages with six OL on the field to play smashmouth, like the regular-season wins over the Vikings, Bengals and Colts, and the playoff rematch vs. Indy.
The inclination for Sunday, because of some matchups in the passing game that we will get to in a moment, is that the ground game should be the anticipation. But while that would ordinarily bring a corresponding logic of a slower pace, be a little careful with that. The Patriots indeed played to a crawl in the first usage of that package, with only 59 snaps at Minnesota, but there was a major focus that afternoon on working the clock in a dull 6-0 second half of a 30-7 rout. The latter three games in which we saw those six-OL formations produced 82 snaps vs. Cincinnati, and 76 and 74 against Indianapolis, even with slow end games because of major leads in all three. Your key takeaway here is that the Patriots do not necessarily slow the pace all that much when they are playing their power game. But also that those power formations may be a big part of the proceedings, since the best way to attack the Seahawk defense right now is to run directly at them (even in their two playoff wins, they allowed Carolina and Green Bay RBs to carry 39 times for 217 yards, a meaningful 5.6 per attempt).
For Seattle, nothing really changes in terms of pace. The Seahawks have a particular gear on offense, and will stick with it regardless of the opponent. Part of that is playing to strength – it was not just game management that had them with the highest percentage of running plays of any offense, but the fact that they netted 5.3 per attempt, a full .6 of a yard more than any other team. That matched the highest differential between one team and the rest of the league since 2007. And while that will obviously have you going to the New England rush defense tables to determine how well the Patriots can hold up in the trenches, those numbers are not necessarily a great indicator, as we move forward.
Item: Russell Wilson’s mobility
The problem with isolating any rush defense against the Seahawks is that they gain some of their yards through unconventional means – the running of the QB. Wilson was given credit for 849 yards at 7.2 per carry, with eight scampers of more than 20 yards, and six TDs. But there is a two-fold problem in the comprehension of that – first are those Read Option designs that are difficult to calculate in terms on anticipating a defense, because they are not seen often. Second is that many of those yards were actually pass plays in which Wilson was forced to break the pocket. The latter happened quite often – note that he was #27 in the NFL in Sack Rate, at 8.5 percent of all drop-backs (contrast this to Tom Brady’s 3.5 as you look to sack props).
While the stats may not unlock the key to this particular matchup, here is a reasonable assumption – while those Read Option plays were not fully utilized during the regular season, with a natural focus on keeping Wilson away from contact as much as possible, in a setting like this that factor goes away. There is no “next week” to worry about, so do not be surprised if he is more active. As such, an Over on Wilson rushing props will be a place to look, and if you find a good price on him to score the game’s first TD, that can be worth something.
It is when Wilson has to throw, and Brady as well, that what I believe will be the key matchup of the game takes place…
Item: The Key Matchup - Who gets open?
Picking a winner of a close game is not easy. The Total is also difficult, given the challenges of determining the pace already dealt with. But here is one area that I believe can be exploited through the Props – these WRs are not going to beat these CBs often. Neither side brings a dynamic group of wideouts, and in particular the Seahawks lack depth at the position. Meanwhile standing across the field are two of the best cover corners in NFL history in Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, while Kyle Arrington and Byron Maxwell are also capable.
How mediocre are the WRs? While the metrics continue to be a work in progress, let’s look at the starters based on how a couple of groups that work very hard at this, Football Outsiders (FO) and Pro Football Focus (PFF), grade them out this season –
Player FO PFF
Brandon LaFell #27 #33
Doug Baldwin #33 #20
Julian Edelman #33 #68
Jermaine Kearse #62 #81
There is nothing special about this group, and had the Patriots and Seahawks been eliminated in the playoffs, no one from that quartet was heading to the Pro Bowl. It is that matchup that will open the greatest opportunities this week, the “game inside the game” that can best be exploited.
You can try to find value from each QBs total passing yards Under (especially given the high number of running plays I expect); any of the individual WRs to go Under for yards or receptions; and there would be a consideration to play the Longest TD prop Under, since the defenses are fundamentally sound enough to not give up a long rushing TD. It is difficult to envision long pass plays unless they are shorter throws after which tackles are broken. Brady will find Rob Gronkowski, but mostly on intermediate stuff.
That gives you plenty to be searching for over the course of the week; now you have to perform your due diligence in the Props shopping to find the best values. But between now and Sunday there is plenty of money to be made…
In the Sights…
In yesterday’s column there was a key focus point (link at the bottom of this page) on just how well the #503 Cleveland defense had played on that 4-0 homestand, when there was some practice time to assimilate Timfoey Mozgov properly into the rotation, along with J. R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. The fact that it has worked so well also means everyone else buying in right now, and it could lead to an extremely high level of energy tonight - for as long as LeBron James has been around, there may have been few more humbling losses for him than the 103-80 drubbing that the Pistons dealt them in Cleveland back on December 28.
Kyrie Irving did not play in that game, and both James and Shawn Marion left early with injuries, as Detroit flat-out dominated the second half. Afterwards David Blatt noted that “We lost our energy and our competitiveness, and that should never happen”. That puts the Pistons squarely in the bulls-eye for this setting, and as the momentum from their own surge following the exorcism of the Josh Smith demons subsides, they are vulnerable for this setting.
Brandon Jennings had been the catalyst for their turnaround, and you can rate his game vs. Orlando last week as one of the better outings by a PG this season (24 points and 21 assists, vs. only two turnovers, in just 32:49). But his campaign is over, and note that when he suffered that torn Achilles, the Pistons were averaging 6.3 more PP100 when he was on the court, compared to when he was sitting. Yes, DJ Augustin had a magical game at Toronto on Sunday, with 35 points and eight assists over 37:21, but that is not a level of play that he is going to match again any time soon. The problem is that even with him performing so well the Pistons still lost, and the fact that he had to go 37:21 is ominous – they just do not have a competent backup at the position, trying to work out a deal to get Pablo Prigioni from the Knicks if they can. For as hot as their surge was, this could become a fragile bunch rather quickly, badly missing the Jennings leadership.
About Last Night…
Syracuse played about as expected at North Carolina on Monday, showing the grit that a Jim Boeheim team can have, but then getting gassed out down the stretch, getting whipped 40-23 on the boards, and allowing 55.4 percent shooting for the game. Boeheim may not coach long enough to ever see his defense allow 93 points again. Yet the Orange only lost by 10, and it is important to break down why, in terms of adjusting them properly going forward. It was a most remarkable night of carelessness with the ball from North Carolina, a game in which Roy Williams had his players going a little too fast. Or at least some of them.
This was actually a box score for the ages – the Tar Heels turned the ball over 20 times, yet not one of those was from PG Marcus Paige. That is simply unheard-of.
Assists Turnovers
Marcus Paige 8 0
All other NC players 2 20
With just a few less giveaways North Carolina might have threatened the 100-point barrier, and through a combination of fatigue and foul trouble, Syracuse simply was not able to guard down the stretch, allowing 33 points over the final 8:40. And even that includes the Tar Heels missing eight FTs over that span. With a difficult schedule ahead, Boeheim may face one of his most difficult coaching challenges, yet the fact that last night’s game fell right around the number could still keep the markets from a full recognition of those issues.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five…Some Orange Crush, in Chapel Hill?...