Point Blank – October 23
The Future is Then; Chargers/Broncos “In the Sights"
Ohio State’s trip to Penn State, for a Saturday prime time setting on ABC, is being viewed by many as the first showcase for the Nittany Lions in the James Franklin era. The ingredients appear to be there: Franklin vs. Urban Meyer, in a battle of coaching egos. Recruiting turf battles galore. Larry Johnson coaching up the Buckeye DL, after spending 17 seasons on the other side of the field. A sell-out crowd, in “white-out” mode.
But those wearing white will likely go away disappointed. Anyone tuning in to watch a close game may need to switch channels to Ole Miss/LSU on ESPN. And those holding a Penn State ticket could spend a big part of their evening feeling Buyer’s Remorse. The setting being billed, is not the setting that is
Is this truly the first showcase for Franklin? That is at least a year away. For while Penn State fared better than many anticipated in Bill O’Brien’s two seasons, and the Nittany Lions are on track for a bowl appearance, 2014 is a relative dead-zone for the program – there are only eight seniors that came on board as scholarship recipients in their freshman year. The key from a handicapping perspective is to understand what the numbers really mean.
Penn State will take the field with 64 scholarship players. That is precariously low, when competing against opponents mostly sitting at or near the limit of 85. And there are aspects of the that which have been most apparent in the latter stages of the last two Big 10 games, losses to Northwestern and Michigan in which they were out-scored 20-0 in the fourth quarter. In particular, go back to Monday’s take of “Big 10 games are too long for Northwestern” (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1066684.aspx) to understand just what it means to fail that way vs. the Wildcats. And even though there was a bye before facing Michigan, Franklin openly admitted that his team was still “a little gassed” in the final stages of that loss.
Those are the logical consequences of “64”, but here is the reality – that is not the true number, “47” is. That is how many scholarship players Franklin has used, with 17 freshmen not seeing game time yet that he hopes to redshirt. So far a soft schedule has not brought 47 fully into play, but both the talent level, and the tempo, that Ohio State brings, makes that a significant handicapping issue this week.
Here is how Franklin assessed the state of his program in a recent press conference - “I think our numbers will get back quicker now because of what’s happened the last couple of years. But the issue is some positions, depending on your approach, whether you go heavy junior college or whether you go high school. Yeah, you might get your numbers back on the offensive line next year but they’re still going to be almost all freshmen or sophomores. Maybe a few juniors. If you look at most programs in the country, you usually don’t play on the offensive line until your redshirt sophomore year. So I think that’s where it will change. I think our numbers will be back but we’ll still be young. You don’t go from being the second-youngest team in the country to mature overnight.”
One of the prime reasons the coach reference to the OL is because it is the team’s biggest weakness this season, with Christian Hackenberg being sacked 20 times already, an alarming count vs. that schedule. The starting lineup includes two former DL that had to be switched over to that side of the ball.
Meyer, of course, will bring no sympathies. His team comes in fresh, having had a bye two weeks ago before coasting past Rutgers last Saturday, while there is only a home game vs. Illinois on deck. And because of events from around the nation in recent weeks, the Buckeyes are entitled to take the field as though they are still in the hunt for a Playoff spot. Sweep out, which would include a win at Michigan State, and 12-1 gets them into the debate. Also consider that their loss to Virginia Tech may be the worst of any one-defeat team, which brings a need for style points into play. Meyer understands such matters as well as anyone, with a 44-27-2 ATS tally in his career when favored by -13 or more, which carries added significance because it has been a winning record in the role with four different programs. In this setting, it could mean the Penn State lack of depth gets stripped of its camouflage.
For as much as Franklin might relish the chance to show a frenzied environment at the opening kickoff on Saturday night to potential recruits, this is a game in which he might prefer those cameras to be shut off early.
In the Sights…
It was not a shock to see the markets begin to surge towards the Broncos for this evening’s showdown vs. the Chargers. Denver just played a dynamic game in a high visibility setting against San Francisco, and for all of the success that San Diego has had under Mike McCoy, the lack of sex appeal from a team built around ball control and execution has been apparent in the market behaviors. But step back a bit and allow some of the meaning behind a +8.5 (there are even 9’s showing, so no hurry) to sink in.
This will be the 25th game of the McCoy era, and there has been exactly one Charger loss by more than this spread. That was a “one of those nights” affairs at Oakland early LY, when turnovers were 5-0. Yet even that game only fell on 10. And it is not as though there is going to be any intimidation on this field – San Diego won 27-20 here on a Thursday night last December, before the Chargers put on a late rally to only lose 24-17 in the playoffs a month later, when they could not stop Peyton Manning on a third-and-17 with a little over 3:00 remaining, in order to get the ball back with a chance to tie.
Is there a particular logic to why they were able to compete so well? First is the general fact that they are going to hang around against anyone, with a ball-control style that not only brings an efficient offense, rating #5 on the Football Outsiders charts, but also does it at a snails pace, sitting at #31 in seconds per play. In 2013, when they stood toe-to-toe with the Broncos on this field, they were #2 in efficiency, and also #31 in seconds per snap. But against this opponent also consider familiarity as a key. McCoy was the Denver OC in 2012, helping to create the designs as Peyton Manning came on board. San Diego OC Frank Reich was an assistant at Indianapolis for Manning’s final six seasons there. Their ability to help DC John Pagano put game plans together has certainly been a factor, although Pagano faces some adjustment issues on this short week, with CB Brandon Flowers out, and Jason Verrett a game-time decision. But as CB Shareece Wright pointed out to the San Diego Union-Tribune “We didn’t have Flowers or Verrett last year when we played them on a Thursday night. This is how I feel.” And Reece can be confident - starting across from him at CB will be Richard Marshall. That was the starting tandem when they won here last December.