Point Blank – August 26
A “Run Line” September…
As promised last week, a day was going to be set aside, before the flaps are opened to enter the regular season football tents, to talk about a key handicapping issue for the MLB pennant races – the Run Lines. The 2014 season is a bit different from the past, and if you understand the flows correctly there are going to be some prime money-making opportunities down the stretch.
Here is the gist – the better teams this season are not all that dominating (will anyone finish August with a .600 win%?), and have been pitching-heavy. It means that they are not going to run away and hide in September, despite average game prices that will once again be increased, as the oddsmakers search for the plateaus at which the markets will be willing to buck contenders, and play on the also-rans. When the better teams do win, it will be less likely that those victories come by margins than they have in the past. Hence, the increased value of that +1.5 on the Run Line over the final furlong.
Run Line prices tend to be generic, predominantly factored from the Side and Total equations for any given game. So the theory here will be that there will be more general value than usual bucking the contenders, since this particular group brings flaws, but that there is also the greater likelihood of wins by those teams coming by a single run than in the past, increasing the particular value of those +1.5’s.
As of this morning there are 14 teams that are within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot, and those are the teams that will be focused on. Let’s start with the simplest of all equations – runs scored and allowed – so that any notion of selectively using some of the more advance metrics to “fudge” the theory is removed. Of those 14 contenders, only two are below league in terms of runs allowed. But five of them are below average for runs scored, including the Braves at #26 and Cardinals at #28.
Now the next step – how much breathing room have these teams been getting since the All Star break. Here is the record for each team in that span with a -1.5 attached:
Atlanta (12-24)
Baltimore (15-20)
Detroit (14-24)
KC (17-19)
LAA (9-27)
LAD (13-22)
Milwaukee (18-20)
NY Yankees (11-24)
Oakland (10-27)
Pittsburgh (15-21)
St. Louis (9-25)
San Francisco (14-21)
Seattle (17-18)
Washington (15-22)
Yes, this is overly simplified – in many of the games the teams were actually the underdogs, and less than even money to win the game, much less build a margin. But for today’s purpose the point may easier to grasp through this approach, rather than breaking down the exact $$$ rates when teams were in the -1.5 role. Bottom line – there are no dominant MLB teams in 2014.
There is an added subtle point, yet an important one. Because many of the teams on that list have been accustomed to winning through pitching and defense, in many instances the managers think about playing for a single run earlier in a game than usual. When you have players giving up an out by hitting behind a runner, or bunting, that further reduces the opportunities for a game to break open. That is something that you will be able to take advantage of, even though it may not always show in the box scores.
So what is your best strategy? The most basic will be to look for the +1.5 with a quality opposing starter that is on form. Last week there was an “In the sights…” take on Wade Miley in that role at Washington, and while Miley labored that afternoon, he got the +1.5 money. That particular equation also brings the previous paragraph into play even more – the tougher the opposing starter is, the more likely a manager is to sacrifice outs for bases, trying harder to get one run in exchange for lessening the chances of a big inning.
In the Sights…
Are the markets going too low with the Boise State/Mississippi Total on Thursday? An opener of 56.5 has now reached 53.5, despite ideal dome conditions for two teams that are going to play at brisk paces behind experienced senior QBs on offense. The matchups to watch are a lot of big and athletic WRs against smaller CBs. Ole Miss has 6-3 Cody Core, 6-3 Quincy Adeboyejo, 6-2 Laquon Treadwell, 6-1 Vince Sanders and 6-1 Trey Bledsoe up against a Boise defense that goes 5-9 across at the starting CB spots, and 5-10 and 5-9 in the two deep, while for the Broncos 6-3 Matt Miller will be a tough matchup for an Ole Miss defense that also has a pair of 5-9 starters at CB.
Vegas…
Dinner on Sunday night was with a pair of out-of-towners wrapping up their Supercontest weekend, plus another local sports bettor. The chance for a walk-through of the new SLS beckoned, and Umami Burger became the choice, to view how they were going to integrate a William Hill book into the space. With SLS more than doubling the restaurant/club allocations compared to the old Sahara (it will be great to have more of Jose Andres available), space is tight, leading to a cluttered and claustrophobic casino area. There are too many tables and machines in too small of a space, not allowing for any hint of “design”, which is incongruous with an overall property concept that exhibits a sophistication of purpose.
If you are at the SLS and want to make a bet, you can – there is a William Hill counter. But the old notion of wanting to sit in a comfy seat and watch NCAA/NFL games for 6+ hours? Not here. There are only four tables dedicated to Sports Book customers, with bar-height chairs you may not want to return to after getting up to make a halftime wager. There are some reasonably comfy booths along the interior walls of Umami, but the patio area is filled with traditional wooden picnic tables. Not bad to grab a burger, not good to sit through an NFL Sunday (despite ample televisions throughout). And if you are a local, note that the sports book is located about as far from valet/parking garage as it could have been. This is not a “quick stop” to make a bet.
If there is a genuine plus to betting and watching at Umami (the food did not overwhelm, although the house-made pickles had a nice brightness of flavor), it is that you can finally sip a Gulden Draak as a game plays out, a libation that has been far too difficult to find around this city…