I subscribe to the rule of thumb that when you get a chance to take Alabama for a TD or less, bet Bama every frickin' time. They may play even in the first half, but their ability to dominate in 2nd halves is unmatched.
I don't know why folks think 'Bama got lucky...those hits/pressures that Bama inflicted on LSU's QB adds up, and they finally got to him in the 4th. Meanwhile, Bama shut down Fournette.. Again.