The COUNTDOWN to College Football is now at 71 days as California and Hawaii meet in Sydney Australia on August 27th. Then on Thursday September 1st the season kicks-off in earnest with 6 games that evening, four game on Friday, a 7:30 AM ET kickoff from Ireland on Saturday, a full Saturday card, Notre Dame at Texas on Sunday and Ole Miss at Florida St on Labor Day!
This opening weekend is loaded with marquee matchups and is probably the best overall weekend of football the entire season. With that said my play for today may ranks among the "ugliest" games of the week.
Ralph Michaels June Best Bet
New Mexico St +7 UTEP (Saturday, Sep 3rd 3PM ET)
New Mexico St head coach Doug Martin is in his 4th season here and while their record only improved by one game from last year (3-9) compared to 2014 (2-10) the Aggies certainly saw improvement. They won 3 of their final 5 games and outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents.This season New Mex St returns 14 starters including RB Larry Rose III who ran for 1,651 yards and almost 7 yards per carry (6.87). The Aggies defense was porous so say the least allowing 522 yards per game but the stop unit will clearly be better as former Boston College DC and 4-year head coach Frank Spaziani is the new DC.
UTEP was to also return 14 starters but it looks as if QB Matt Leftwhich will not be ready after having shoulder surgery in April and the starting job may well go a Fresno St transfer who did not join the team until after spring practices.That situation is a concern especially with the Miners top 2 RB's departing and while UTEP does return their top 5 receivers there is rarely enough time in August practices to get their timing down.
Last season these teams met and UTEP won the game 50-47 but only had a one-yard edge and won in OT. Now the Miners are laying a full TD but in their last 14 games against FBS foes they've only beaten ONE team by over 3 points. Add in the fact that the Aggies rushed for 4.9 ypc last season with an experienced RB returning and the Miners allowed 5.0 ypc and lost their top DL and two of their three LB's which is a match-up I like. Meanwhile this UTEP squad is loaded with in-state Texas players and no matter how hard the coaches try to keep them focused on this opener their eyes will be looking ahead to next weeks game at Texas thinking - We've beaten New Mexico St 7 straight times so no concern BUT the Longhorns are playing Notre Dame on Sunday and we can pull the upset as they will definitely be in a letdown mode. Lastly the Aggie's do have New Mexico on deck but not many fans realize that UTEP and New Mexico St are only 45 mile apart they will be ready!
Having managed Phil Steele Publications and Northcoast Sports for over 15 years my main focus was naturally on football. As most of you know my College Basketball passion is not to be outdone. Every day I'll be providing you with an interesting charts, a comp play or some unique analysis that can't be found anywhere except here at Pregame! If there's something you would like to see JUST ASK and I find access to - You will see it here!