Update with results of refined version of Rocky returning starter system
First, thanks Rocky for adding the week two picks above. If you could also give me the week one picks and W-L ATS results of same, that (plus today's results) would then give us 3 weeks of comparison (between your returning starter system and my refined version of same). I would also appreciate knowing how far into the season one should continue using this system, as I did not see anything about that in your above posts re the system, and most of the returning starter systems I have seen for college FB say the system gets weaker as the season progresses and the new starters get some real game experience (which totally makes sense). Thus most returning starter systems suggest that bettors play the system lighter after week 3 (this week) and stop using it altogether after week 5.
Sorry for the late update, but as you know, capping TW’s games comes first, and will a full slate of CFB games today, I’ve been very busy the last few hours as well as last nite. In any event, after weeding out LW’s plays from Rocky’s returning starter system that did not qualify, based on my adjustments on account of relevant recent wins for each team and a few other minor “tweaks” which I list below, I ended up with 7 plays which had an adjusted RS (returning starter) edge of +5>, and those 7 plays went 5-2 ATS), compared to Rocky’s 16 plays (which went 11-5). Included in those 7 plays were four top plays (those being games where the # of returning starters of one team, adjusted by the relevant recent wins for each team, was 10> than its opponent), which went 3-1. My 7 week two plays using the refined version of Rocky’s system, with the adjusted RS (returning starter) edge for the “play on team” and the W-L ATS results of same, with the four top plays high-lighted in yellow, were as follows:
Kansas State (-14) at UTSA, with adjusted RS edge of +10 = WIN
App St (+20) vs Clemson, with adjusted RS edge of +6 = LOSS
Michigan (-14) vs Oregon St, with adjusted RS edge of +8 = WIN
ND (-13) at UVA, with adjusted RS edge of +10 = LOSS
Bowl Green +7) at Md, with adjusted RS edge of +6 = WIN
Neb (-28) vs So Ala, with adjusted RS edge of +12 = WIN
UCLA -32) at UNLV, with adjusted RS edge of +16 = WIN
In addition to adjusting advantage for returning starts based on LY W-L records for each team, I added the below “tweaks” to my adjustments, in order to avoid backing presumably bad teams and going against presumably good teams:
1. In order for a win to be a “qualifying win,” it must have been against a FBS (Div 1) team, and wins as faves of -30> against minor conf teams (like Sun Belt, C-USA) are not included as qualifying wins, either.2.
2. Qualifying wins so far this season are also counted for each team (so if a team had 8 qualifying wins LY and already 2 TY, they have 10 total qualifying wins
3. Don’t play against any team which had 10> qualifying wins LY
4. Don’t play on any team which had 4 or fewer qualifying wins LY
5. Don’t play on any team which is favored by > 31 points, unless it’s a “top play” (RS edge of 10>), in which case it’s OK to lay up to -35.
Conclusion – again, the results of my “refined” version of Rocky returning starter system (5-2 overall, incl 3-1 on Top Plays) were comparable to Rocky’s results of 11-5 with all system plays, so whether or not and how much my refinements improve the system is inconclusive at this point.
However, with an updated post I’ll indicate which of Rocky’s 10 RS plays for today also qualify under my refined version of the system, and hopefully Rocky will let me know what his nine week one RS system plays were that went just 4-5, so I can determine how many of those 5 losers my refinements would have weeded out. Then, with 3 weeks of results, we should have a better idea of whether or not and how much my refinements improve Rocky’s returning starter system. Stay tuned
Great Owl