College Bowl Early Line Value Plays
By Tony George
There are 39 bowl games this year and the first snap is on December 20th in the New Orleans Bowl, but rest assured with the Las Vegas Lines out now the bettors are lining up at the ticket window and taking advantage of some early lines before the public swarms in masses and changes those lines, thus affecting the value in those lines.
I thought I would take a look at 3 Bowl Games that have some value NOW and it is time to jump on those games before the line value is all but erased. Bear in mind your are always wagering into numbers and not games folks. With that said here are a two line value plays now, and one you may want to wait out for better value.
Western Kentucky -3 – The Hilltoppers have an offense folks, and they were the lone team to beat mighty Marshall this year and knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten Division I schools at seasons end. Central Michigan is a good team from the MAC Conference but lack the offensive firepower to trade punches on the scoreboard all day long with the Hilltoppers. The line opened at 4.5 and dropped to 3 points with Western Kentucky the favorite, but I see this line climbing in the upcoming week or so, and I feel 3 is a good number here to lay. Western Kentucky puts up 570 yards of offense per game versus CMU’s 380 yards, and while the Hilltoppers defense is suspect, CMU does not have the weapons to trade numbers with them all day.
Nebraska +6 – With Bo Pelini gone many think the players will throw in the towel here, however rumblings in Lincoln are saying the players are dedicating this game to him, and interim head coach Barney Cotton (ex-Husker Player), a longtime fixture at Nebraska, as well as his son being a past player, is well liked by the players. USC could not beat anyone good this year and USC cannot stop anyone running the ball, and trust me Nebraska will run it right at them all night with a healthy Ameer Abdullah, who is one of the top 4 RB’s in the country. Perception versus reality here, this line gets to 6.5 or higher, currently sitting at 6, the Huskers are a “Live Dog” in this one, and I think the public will buy into USC far more than Nebraska. You could possibly get them at the key number of 7, but 6 is good and anymore added to that number is a bonus.
TCU -3 – I think TCU really got the shaft in the Final 4 selection, won by 18 points over the Las Vegas line exceeding expectations against Iowa State in their season finale, and then drop 3 spots and get nixed out. Yes Ol Miss will provide some issues with their defense, but they have not seen a team like TCU and trust me TCU will devise a game plan to confuse QB Wallace and show him a various packages of blitzes. TCU has been consistent all year, Ol Miss is not, and TCU has covered 10 of their 12 games against the line. TCU has something to prove and while Ol Miss is a good football team from the SEC, TCU is a far better team. The fall number of 3 will rise, if you like the Horned Frogs on a mission here, take them now.