gators +7.5 (105/100)
Really like what I saw when the gators put the kabosh on the geo dawgs, and the upswing mobility w/ Treon Harris taking the snaps. Gators are averaging almost 200 yards rushing per game, and have two solid running backs in Jones & Taylor, both first class. Being able to run the ball here will be key, and the triple threat (Harris, Jones, Taylor) will be a daunting task to stop.
State has been limping along, squeaking out wins against inferior competition. Boston College took them to the wire for christ's sakes and it has been a season of near misses going 3-9ats along the way. Some shift on the offense line could give gators tenacious defense a wedge to wreck havoc. Left tackle for noles, Roderick Johnson, a true freshman will have his hands full facing Dante Fowler, Jr., who is 2nd in tackles on gators defense. The line might hold under normal ACC patsies, but gators will be able to almost completely stuff noles rush attacks, and also have speed and talent in secondary to cover. This will make scoring a challenge, even for Winston, as he will be under pressure the entire game in this spot.
Gators s.o.s. is #13, and Noles s.o.s. is #49, so obviously some some misconception regarding records in this spot. State's s.o.s. is padded w/ signature wins over teams like the fraudulent irish and others. Power Rankings have state 86.24, vs. 84.11 for the gators; this suggests a 2 pt line difference by ranking. Gators have held 3 opponents this year to under 150 total yards.
Muschamp has called it quits and this will be his last game as gator's coach. Surely eases the mind and relieves some pressure. Gator players seem to like him and have really picked up play coming down the stretch. Jumbo Fissure has had difficulty controlling the tribe and very undisciplined. Reports from tallyland are littered with all kinds of misconduct, and time after time, things get swept under the rug.
Gators will be running down hill in this one and will simply be too physical for the noles. Winston will be under pressure the entire game, and gators secondary will be in position to pick. Rarely can a cfb team stop the opposition rush w/ a four man front - gators can do that here and smother throwing lanes. I've been spouting off about the weak ACC all season, and really don't feel like FSU has the team TY to warrent pole position. One loss will likely punt them out of the top 10 and tarnish talk about BCS champ.
Simply love a motivated dawg that can win the game outright and getting more than a touchdown.