I won't even talk about the last 2 days. Let's just say it was bad. I hope to get it back today. Records below reflect Thursday and Fridays games. BOL today Everyone.
Saturday's Plays
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Nebraska/ Michigan Over 59.5: This one has the feel of a shootout. Michigan State has increased their offensive production this year and they have scored 58 ppg at home so far. They will be taking a step up in competition and while Nebraska has allowed just 19 ppg this year, they have faced just one good offense and allowed 31 points to Miami in that game. They will struggled to keep this Michigan state offense from scoring, especially since the Spartans are looking to destroy all teams on the schedule to impress the committee. Do not be surprised if they look to run it up here should they have the chance. For Nebraska, they have been an offensive machine as well this year, as they have averaged 572 ypg and 45.4 ppg. Granted they are taking on a tough MSU defense, but they did struggle some vs the only good offense they have faced (Oregon) and I see the Cornhuskers to be able to score on them here. This one should be fun and could flirt with putting up 70+ points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MISSISSIPPI STATE -2 over Texas A&M: This is a huge opportunity for the Bulldogs and I feel they will be able to take advantage of it. The Bulldogs are a much better team than last year, they are at home and off a Bye week. They also lost by just 10 points last year on the road vs an A&M team that had Johnny football at the helm. I know that Kenny Hill has been awesome this year, but he hasn't faced a defense this tough just yet. Mississippi State can be passed on, as they have allowed 319 ypg through the air so far, but we will see what Kenny Hill will be able to do under pressure as I expect the Bulldogs to bring plenty of pressure vs him. Mississippi State is very balanced on offense, rushing for 270 ypg, while passing for 266 ypg and that makes them very tough to stop, especially since A&M really had problems slowing down the Arkansas run game last week. The Bulldogs are a very dangerous team, especially at home and will look to follow their road win over LSU with a huge home win over a top 10 team. I say they get it here.
Navy/ Air Force Under 56: This one should be a very good game, but also a low scoring one, just like in the last 5 meetings between these teams, in which an average of just 41 ppg where scored. Now going back to the last 10 meetings in this series and we see that just once in those meetings, in regulation, was there more than 56 points scored in a game. A big part of that is that both teams runs the triple option and both teams know how to defend it it. We also note that the triple will take plenty of time off the clock as well. We also have an air Force team that has played good defense this year as they have allowed just 21.3 ppg and they have allowed just 86.5 ypg on the ground. They can be passed on but navy only throws for 90 ypg. The Navy defense is not as strong, but they usually have good success vs the Air Force offense in the past. Both teams now each other very well and both teams are pretty conservative and that should once again keep the scoring in the 40s at best here.
TCU/ Oklahoma Under 57: The Sooners have an explosive offense, but they are taking on what is either the top of 2nd best defense in the league. I know the Horned Frogs haven't faced anyone just yet, but coming into the year I thought their defense would be a top 10 unit in the nation this year. TCU has one of the best DLs in the land and their LB and DBs are among the best in the big 12. The Frogs have allowed just 127 ypg passing and 7 ppg on the year so far. I don't think they will do that vs Oklahoma, but the Sooners will not get many big plays off this defense either. When they score it will be on long time consuming drives. TCU is not a high tempo team and will not have many big plays vs an Oklahoma defense that has allowed just 16.8 ppg this year, and they have faced some good scoring teams thus far. This Oklahoma defense is also for real. Both defenses should keep the other offenses from making big plays and that should really keep the scoring down here.
USC -12 over Arizona State: This is a huge revenge game for the Trojans as they lost to ASU 62-41 last year, in a game that ASU really looked to run up the score. This USC squad has not been as dominant as expected this year, but they do have something in this game that the Sun Devils done, and that is a defense. USC comes in allowing just 17.5 ppg on the year and last week they held a potent Oregon State offense to just 10 points. ASU has allowed 30.8 ppg this year and in their last game they allowed 62 points to UCLA. The Offenses are both god, but USC does have the big edge on defense, plus a huge motivation edge with revenge on their minds. I look for a 17+ point win by the Trojans in this one.
6 Point Teaser: Auburn -1.5 & Michigan State -1
BEST OF THE REST
North Carolina/ Virginia Tech Under 64.5: Very hard to see this game being played in the mid 60s, especially since Va Tech has played just two games with more than 61 points being scored in the last 2+ years. This Hokies defense is sold and North Carolina will look to correct their defensive woes after allowing 120 points the last two weeks. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and I expect that trend to continue here.
Notre Dame/ Stanford Under 47: This Stanford defense is tops in the nation and they play a real conservative type of game on offense. The did put up some solid numbers vs the weaker teams they have faced this year, but in their two Pac-12 games (which is closer to the talent of Notre Dame) they have averaged just 15 ppg and last week were able to score just 20 points on a Washington defense that allowed 52 points to Eastern Washington earlier in the year. I know that Stanford played USC, but still this may be the best defense they have faced this year so far, as they Irish come in allowing just 11.5 ppg on the year. The Irish have averaged 35 ppg on the year so far, but they have yet to face a defense as tough as this one and I see them having trouble moving the ball with ease here. The Cardinal really seem to play more conservative in big games, as the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings at Notre Dame. Mid 30’s at best here.
Alabama/ Mississippi Under 52.5: Both of these offenses have been very good this year, but these two defenses will probably end up in the top 10 in the nation by the end of the year. This Ole Miss defense is for real and they come in allowing just 8.5 ppg and 248 ypg on the year so far. The Alabama defense is not as good as in year’s past, but they are still very good and come in allowing just 14 ppg. This is a huge game for both games and I look for both coaches to be a bit conservative in this one. This should really be an old school SEC defensive battle with a score possibly in the 30s at best.
Texas/ Baylor Under 58: The Baylor offense is explosive, but this Texas defense is for real and it should keep the Bears under wraps in this one. Now Baylor is not all offense as they come in allowing just 250.5 ypg and 13.8 ppg and they will be facing a very bad and very slow paced Texas offense that has put up just 17 ppg this year. I just don't see Texas getting enough offense for this game to go over the total, while at the same time I just don't see their defense giving up enough points for this one to go over either. The Under is 21-8 in the Longhorns last 29 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record. Let's look for a game in the 40s here.
Georgia/ Vanderbilt Over 52.5: This one has blowout written all over it, but the way I will go here is with the Over. The Vanderbilt defense has been awful this year and that should mean that plenty of points are put up by the Dawgs, who are averaging 45.2 ppg on the year so far. Vandy has averaged just 17 ppg on the year so far and I feel they may be able to get at least that here as the Dawgs defense has not been as stout as in years past, coming in allowing 22.8 ppg on the year. This game should reach the 60s.
10 Point Teaser: Florida +12.5 & Oklahoma +6.5 & Notre Dame +12.5
10 Point Teaser: Kansas State -4 & USC -2 & Clemson -4
Ohio State/ Maryland Over 59
10 Point Teaser: Cal/ Washington State Over 62 & Utah +23 & UAB +19
Thursday & Friday
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Oregon Over 70: Well I made a play on this game very early and now the line is up 9 points. I still expect it to come down may a point or two, but in any case i see a ton of points coming in this game. The Arizona offense is explosive, just like the Washington state one is and the Cougs put up 499 yards and 31 points in that game. Arizona should be able to 30+ in this one as well. For the Ducks, they once again have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 48.5 ppg and they have had a week off for this one so they should really be ready to go offensively. I look for them to put up 50+ here, especially since they are looking for payback from a 26 point loss at Arizona last year, in a game that they were held to just 16 points. I know Oregon put up just 38 points at Washington State, but they also put up 46 on a tough Michigan State defense and 48 on an underrated Wyoming defense. No reason they can't put up 50+ on this bad Arizona defense. I may not have had it as a top play at 79, but I still do like the play. 54-30 sounds about right for this one.
Utah State/ BYU Under 51.5: First off the Aggies have no Chuckie Keeton in this one and will be hard pressed to put up many points on an angry BYU defense that allowed 33 points to Virginia in their last game. BYU also had the week off to fix their defense from that game so they should be ready here vs an offense that will not be as explosive as if they had Keeton in there. Even with Keeton in there the Aggies have not been all that good as they have averaged just 24.8 ppg on the year so far. The BYU offense is very good, but also more of a running offense and that will chew up plenty of clock. We also note that the Utah State defense comes in having allowed just 78 ypg on the ground this year, which is 4th in the nation. Theses Friday night games have been very low scoring for BYU, as 15 of their last 16 games on Friday night have gone Under the total and that includes this year’s opener vs Uconn, which put up just 45 points. I expect that to continue here as well.
BEST OF THE REST
Florida Atlantic/ Florida International Under 47: Both teams have played in higher than normal scoring games for them of late, but I don't see that happening here. FAU has struggled on defense, but they have also had road games vs Alabama and Nebraska to start the year which has skewed these numbers a bit. Tonight they will be taking on an FIU squad that is 125th in the nation in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 105th in scoring (21.6 ppg). The FAU Defense should have a better showing tonight, much like they did when they went on the road and allowed just 334 yards and 20 points to a bad Wyoming offense. The FAU offense has put up big point totals in 2 of their last 3 games, but still they come in averaging just 313.6 ypg (114th) and 23.4 ppg (98th). They will take on an FIU defense that has been pretty solid this year, allowing just 317.8 ypg (23rd) and 22.6 ppg (50th). Neither team plays at a fast pace, which should really help keep the scoring down here as well. This will be a higher scoring game than last years which put up just 27 points, but still I don't see it topping 40 points.
Houston/ UCF Over 50.5
10 Point Teaser--- Oregon -13.5 & Central Florida +13 & San Diego State +13
10 Point Teaser: San Diego State +13 & BYU -10.5 & Louisville/ Syracuse Under 57
CFB 2014
Top Plays Overall 17-15-1 (+1.1 Units)... 4 Unit 1-1-0 (-0.4 Units)
Top Play Totals 9-11-0 (-10.3 Units)... Power Angle Plays 3-0-0 (+10.00 Units)... Top Play Teasers 1-2-0 (-3.6 Units)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 32-34-2 (-12.4 Units)
Best Of The Rest Totals 15-15-1 (-4.2 Units)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 7-12-0 (-14.6 Units)