I have been looking at this line quite a bit, here are my thoughts.
Opened 21.5 and really has not moved even though perception bets have to be all on Baylor. Baylor beats Iowa St by 64 points last year. I do not think there can be much value on Baylor as a big favorite since they have already covered two big numbers in this short season. You could also argue that Baylor will be even better this week getting some players back. Also the Baylor defense has looked particularly good as well. How and why is this line not moving more toward the favorite?
Baylor is a favorite among the betting public and even last year it seemed public and sharps were on them quite a bit and for good reason (pretty sure they had a very good ATS record last year). Now Iowa St is a team that looks much better than originally anticipated and yes they lost to an FCS team in week 1, but a very good FCS team. The same FCS team that beat competitive K St 8-5 team last year. You could also argue Iowa St should have been able to hold on and beat K st this year. Even after Iowa St lost these two games they managed to get a big rivalry game victory against an Iowa team. Iowa St was horrible last year; but were they really? Maybe it sounds silly but they were probably the best 3 win team in the country. They were competitive in several games. Iowa st returns most of their offense and their QB play has looked better. I am not really a big fan of the Iowa St coach, but he does seem to get really good effort from his teams.
Looking at Baylor's wins in this short season they are against two teams that most thought were not really going to be very good. SMU rebuilding and in some turmoil; very young as well. Buffalo was probably not going to improve on their 8 win season last year. Lost much talent on defense. A defense that this year has not been able to stop anyone. They were not going to stop Baylor.
Trap game for Baylor? Not sure but there could be something to them looking ahead to Texas. That game will still be a big game for both teams. Last year Baylor benefitted from a huge TO margin throughout the year. Does that matter now? I do think it is factored into the public perception of getting this team at a discount. "Only -22", as I heard from some of my "friends" Baylor put up insane numbers last year, but some of that was due to getting turnovers. Turnovers can not be counted on as a trend to continue.
Probably not a play for me. Truth be told I would much rather ride with my money on the offensive power of Baylor than hoping somehow Iowa st can keep this close. For me it does not feel like the week to bet this Baylor team as a 3 TD favorite. All the value seems to be on the home team that looks like they could be much better than anticipated.