lazylover said:
UDFLYR and STEVE both lean UNC. I know you know you EC games, hope your right on this one.
I respect their opinions but I still feel pretty good about this pick. I am an East Carolina alum so I'll admit to being biased but I called their upsets last year in Chapel Hill and this year in Blacksburg, too bad I didn't post them on Pregame or I'd look like a genius. I did take the money line at VT this year, though :)
North Carolina has played about 2 1/2 quarters of good football so far this year. They were losing at home to Liberty and San Diego State with 5 and 6 minutes, respectively, remaining in the third quarter of each game. Ten of the points in the San Diego State game came off of turnovers (a pick six and a FG after another SDSU turnover). UNC had to preserve their win with an interception in their own end zone at the end of the game. SDSU had 100+ more total yards and held a 15 minute advantage in time of possession. I've spoken with a few UNC fans that were at the game and all said that they should have absolutely lost that game.
North Carolina did overlook East Carolina last year and that won't happen this year. Virginia Tech's fans may have overlooked the Pirates this year but Beamer never does. Tech scratched out a 15-10 victory at East Carolina last year so they knew that this would be a hotly contested game even after beating Ohio State in Columbus.
VA Tech's DBs did slow down Carden and Justin Hardy after the first quarter but Cam Worthy stepped up with 224 receiving yards. All of VA Tech's DBs are returning starters including Kendell Fuller, who's three older brothers all played/are playing CB in the NFL. UNC's DBs are improved from last year but nothing like Tech's.
East Carolina's defense has vastly improved under second year DC Rick Smith. Here are South Carolina's total yardage numbers from the Gamecocks first three games: 433, 441 and 447. East Carolina only allowed 441 yards to SC versus A&M's 433 and Georgia's 447. Not bad company to keep.
I realize that the sharp money is on North Carolina and that does make me nervous but East Carolina is by far the better, battle-tested team right now. This game is the most important game on the schedule to ECU's fans, players and head coach, who played DB at East Carolina and knows the importance of this game. East Carolina might have a letdown but that's happening in two weeks versus SMU, not Saturday versus the Tar Heels.