I just read this write-up on Dave Cokin's blog. I'd like to think great minds think alike, but I know my mind is nothing to write home about and Dave makes a good living on Las Vegas ESPN radio and selling picks. His blog address is:
http://smokincokin.com
12/05 08:00 PM CB (519) SAN DIEGO STATE (520) SAN DIEGO
Take: (519) SAN DIEGO STATE -7.5
It’s the battle of San Diego tonight at Jenny Craig Pavilion. Both San Diego State and San Diego are off to solid starts, and you can bet your bottom dollar the Toreros would love to knock off the nationally ranked Aztecs.
SDSU is now 5-1 and moved into the AP Top 25 following the Wooden Legacy Tournament win last weekend. Xavier Thames has really stepped forward for the Aztecs, as the senior guard is off back to back career highs against Creighton and Marquette. Winston Shepard is clearly improved this season. JJ O’Brien is a study in efficiency in the paint. Transfer Josh Davis has been in a bit of a shooting slump, but is going to be an asset. Freshman Matt Shrigley is already a serious long range weapon off the bench.
In other words, watch out for this team. San Diego State was supposed to take a step or two backward this season after losing Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. I pegged them for third place in the MWC, but the more I see of the Aztecs, the more I think I might have sold them a little short.
San Diego is off to a 7-2 start to the season, and the Toreros have a nice starting five. Johnny Dee is very explosive. Duda Sanadze has already shown he’s going to be very solid addition to this team. Big man Dennis Kramer is not a star, but he and Jito Kok are proving valuable on the inside. Diminutive point guard is rolling up the assists while averaging double figures.
The Toreros don’t have much depth, however,m and that liability will apparently be further compromised tonight as sixth man Thomas Jacobs is likely out with an ankle injury. That very thin USD bench could be a huge factor in this game.
There isn’t any question this is a big game for San Diego. The Toreros have not beaten the Aztecs in several years, and it would obviously be a really huge deal if they could do so tonight. But the track record in intracity rivalry indicates that the Aztecs don’t just treat it as an automatic win. That’s very meaningful in a matchup of this type.
I can definitely see USD hanging tough in this game for at least the first half, maybe longer than that. But the deeper and more talented Aztecs seem likely to eventually start pulling away, and if the refs are calling things tightly with the new rules, that’s probably bad news for the Toreros. For San Diego to have any realistic shot at the upset, they have to max out the minutes from their starting five.
I like finding ways to back the underdog in games such as this. But the more I break it down, the more I see advantages for the favorite. Thus, with the number where it is, I’m compelled to side with San Diego State to eventually take command while emerging with the win and cover.