Duquesne +4 at Fordham
Pick: Fordham -4
Wednesday night's contest will be the 33rd meeting between Fordham and Duquesne on the hardwood with the Dukes leading the all-time series, which started in the 1949-50 season, 19-13. Duquesne took last year's meeting, 87-81, in Pittsburgh on January 8 as Ovie Soki scored 29 points while Jon Severe led all scorers in the game for the Rams with 35.
The game will be Senior Night as six members of the Fordham basketball program make their final appearances in the Rose Hill Gym.
Most notable among them is Bryan Smith. Smith has appeared in over 110 games for the Rams and is serving as a team captain this season. He has accumulated over 850 career points and has more than 380 career rebounds and 150 career three-pointers and has been a big reason to the team's recent success.
"I'm hoping we can sell this place out for him because he deserves it….Bryan had an opportunity to go a lot of places, a lot of other really good schools. He chose to come here when it wasn't the popular thing to do; it was a hard thing to do….His dad's an alum. I just said to him, 'Your mom and dad have to be so happy and proud of you…..Next Wednesday, I want to have a great crowd here. It's going to be an emotional night for him,” said Fordham Head Coach Pecora.
If you have reading my picks over the last couple of weeks you will have noticed that we have backed Fordham twice, and will do so again today. So I will not go into great detail re: our reasoning for backing this Fordham. All is to say is that Fordham’s freshmen are incredibly talented, maturing and playing better offensively and defensively. Moreover, Fordham has been stellar at the FT line.
For example, Freshman forward Christian Sengfelder was named Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Week last week, the fifth A-10 Rookie of the Week award for Sengfelder. He shot 68.4 percent from the field (13-of-19), averaging 15.5 ppg and 10.0 rpg along with recording two blocks.
Also, Fordham freshmen Eric Paschall and Chris Sengfelder are the only set of freshman teammates to be averaging more than 10.0 ppg and 5.0 rpg. Paschall is fourth in the Atlantic 10 in scoring with a 16.5 ppg average while also pulling down 5.6 rpg, while Sengfelder is averaging 11.4 ppg and 7.4 rpg.
Through games of March 2, the Fordham Rams have the Atlantic 10's fourth leading scorer, and top freshman scorer, in freshman guard Eric Paschall (16.5 ppg) while Mandell Thomas leads the conference in steals (2.3/game). The Rams also have the fourth leading rebounder in junior forward Ryan Rhoomes (8.7 rpg) while Rhoomes is also seventh in the conference in blocked shots, averaging 1.3/game, and Paschall is fourth in free throw shooting (80,0%) and Thomas is sixth in assists with a 3.7 apg average.
Over the past nine games, the Fordham offense has heated up, scoring over 70 points in six of the contests and averaging 71.8 ppg over that stretch.
Now we get an improving Fordham offense going up against a Duquesne defense that ranks near the bottom in almost everything: 324th nationally in defensive efficiency (14th in the A-10); 270th (14th in the A-10) in defensive effective FG%; 321st (14th in the A-10) in defensive Turnover %, 265th (14th in the A-10) in defensive Rebounding %, 325th (14th in the A-10) defensive 3P%, 212th (12th in the A-10 defensive Block%) and, 319th (13th in the A-10) in defensive Steal%.
UMass destroyed Fordham on the glass to the tune of 42-28. Fordham couldn't seem to get a defensive board as UMass grabbed 19 offensive ones. That shouldn’t be a problem here today, Duquesne is a middle of the pack offensive rebounding team, 128th nationally, 7th in the A-10. Note that Fordham ranks 2nd in the A-10 in defensive rebounding. We should see improvement on the glass here tonight.
Meanwhile, when Duquesne hits the road….watch out!!! Although Duquesne is averaging 74.2 points per game at home, on the road that they are averaging 66.0, that’s over 8 points less per game ... while the Dukes are outscoring A-10 opponents by +5.1 point per game on their home court they are being outscored by 18.4 points per game on the road .. and while Duquesne has held eight A-10 opponents to .384 shooting at home, when the Dukes go on the road, A-10 foes are shooting .502.
Those statistics come together and paint a picture of a team that is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, failing to meet market expectations by 47.5 points, that’s nearly 8 points per game.
Duquesne: Last 6 Road Games | Season
|
Date
|
vs.
|
Score
|
Line
|
O/U
|
FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
02/28/15
|
@SBON
|
L 75-92
|
L 7.5
|
O 145.5
|
27/63
|
26/57
|
38-38
|
02/18/15
|
@LAS
|
L 72-87
|
L 10
|
O 134.5
|
27/66
|
30/62
|
37-35
|
02/14/15
|
@MASS
|
L 74-82
|
W 9.5
|
O 142.5
|
26/60
|
24/56
|
31-36
|
02/07/15
|
@DAV
|
L 69-95
|
L 12.5
|
O 152.5
|
28/62
|
38/63
|
28-28
|
01/28/15
|
@RICH
|
L 55-86
|
L 11.5
|
O 136.5
|
21/52
|
30/56
|
24-34
|
01/24/15
|
@GW
|
L 59-74
|
L 14
|
U 137
|
22/50
|
25/52
|
22-32
|
On the other side, Fordham has become an ATS machine at home and overall; in their last 5 homes games, 5-0 ATS beating market expectations a whopping 62.5 points, that’s an insane 12.5 points per game. Overall Fordham is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
Fordham: Last 10 Games | Season
|
Date
|
vs.
|
Score
|
Line
|
O/U
|
FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
02/28/15
|
@MASS
|
L 74-82
|
W 9.5
|
O 137
|
26/57
|
31/66
|
28-39
|
02/25/15
|
LAS
|
W 63-48
|
W 5
|
U 131
|
28/61
|
18/61
|
43-30
|
02/21/15
|
@DAV
|
L 57-76
|
L 15.5
|
U 149
|
20/53
|
30/60
|
29-29
|
02/18/15
|
@GMU
|
W 80-68
|
W 5.5
|
O 133
|
26/49
|
22/51
|
27-28
|
02/15/15
|
JOES
|
W 69-55
|
W 2
|
U 131
|
26/54
|
20/58
|
38-24
|
02/11/15
|
@RICH
|
L 71-73
|
W 13.5
|
O 133.5
|
24/53
|
25/64
|
41-31
|
02/07/15
|
SLU
|
W 83-65
|
W -1
|
O 129.5
|
23/46
|
22/49
|
32-18
|
02/04/15
|
MASS
|
L 72-78
|
W 7
|
O 137
|
24/64
|
24/57
|
38-34
|
02/01/15
|
@DAY
|
L 77-101
|
L 15
|
O 127.5
|
30/66
|
32/52
|
27-30
|
01/28/15
|
URI
|
L 63-64
|
W 9.5
|
O 125.5
|
21/51
|
23/55
|
36-31
|
Another determining factor I like to look at is how the opposition performs in close games, considering we have -4 on the board it is worth analyzing. That said, in games, decided by three or fewer points Duquesne is 1-4 (1-3 in conference play). When we delve into some of the Dukes statistics to uncover the shortcomings, one determining factor could be FT shooting. The Dukes are one of the nations and A-10’s worst FT shooting team. Duquesne is ranked 336th nationally, shooting 63% at the FT line.
Conversely, part of the Ram's recent success in scoring is due to the improvement in free throw shooting. Fordham is shooting 72.3 percent (362-501) from the charity stripe in 2014-2015, second best in the Atlantic 10. Over the past 12 games, the Rams are shooting almost 80.0 percent (167-209/79.9%) from the line.
I like the value we are still getting on Fordham. Give me Fordham -4.