Every year I promise myself I'll only focus on two conferences, but that lasts about 8 hours. As is the norm for me I spend more of my energy on the Big West and the Mountain West conferences, but since Dave Cokin specializes in those two, it might be a good time to mine some nuggets in the Big Sky and the West Coast conferences too.
I will eventually post what I know about the Big West and the MWC, but I'm already seeing potential opportunities in the Big Sky this year. I think they have the best name: BIG SKY. I mean really, what a cool name. If you've never been to this part of the country, do yourself a big favor and RV the western states. No place on earth is as diverse and as beautiful as Big Sky country and by George, it covers just about all of the Great American West. And as has been happening over the last few years, they've added another school, Idaho, to the mix and will soon be known as the Bigger Sky Conference.
But getting to the nuts and bolts.
Many of the college basketball preview rags pick either Weber State, E. Washington, or Sacramento State to win the Big Sky this year with perennial favorite Weber State the safe bet, but I'm leaning hard to Sac State to break some hearts. This is new territory for the Hornets. They've yet to finish above .500 in 24 years and in this year, they probably deserve the positive expectations heaped upon them.
In a nutshell, Sac State returns 9 of their top players, which includes all 5 starters so continuity should not be a problem.
- They have depth in all positions.
- They finished 7th in conference with a 10-10 record.
- Mike McKinney, guard, should be conference player of the year finishing the 2013-14 campaign with 16 ppg, 4+ apg, 3.8 rpg, and 1.2 steals. At 6'1" and only 170 lb., McKinney was chosen as a Big Sky First Team player last year and all signs point to bigger and better achievements.
- They were 8-2 at home and 2-8 on the road.
The big question is: Can Sac State build the chemistry and confidence to take the next step?
I'm not going to lay a bunch of stats on you as my approach to handicapping is as much about chemistry and situations as it is numbers. But I do like the fact that all of the starters are coming back and Mason Stuteville has joined his older brother Eric on the roster.
Look, it's so early right now and teams all over the country are just beginning to scrimmage with other local programs, so it's futile to put much stock in what's going on today, but it doesn't hurt to know who's doing what, who has what, and who's most likely to succeed.
Sac State has to rise to and embody the big expectations being projected on them. They have to perform well and grow up quickly as the media will anoint them if they show any propensity to accept the challenge. With so many players returning, they have to take full advantage of the familiarity they bring to the new season and take advantage of the confusion of rebuilding by their competition.
The Blue Ribbon Guide projects this as the final standings. I've added to the list how many starters are returning to each team.
Team |
Starters Returning |
Sac State |
5 |
Weber State |
2 |
E. Washington |
4 |
N. Arizona |
4 |
N. Colorado |
3 |
Portland State |
2 |
Montana** |
1 |
Idaho |
3 |
N. Dakota |
2 |
Idaho State |
2 |
Montana State** |
2 |
S, Utah |
5 |
** Montana and Montana State have new head coaches this year.
Do I think they can win the conference? I don't know. We see this situation in every sport - a team on the edge of success. Some beat their demons and their self-imposed limitations to advance while others succumb to mediocrity and the accolades of "good enough," and then they languish in the diffused spotlight of also-rans.
I believe that in no other sport is the coach as important as he/she is in college hoops. Just as players are primed to advance, the coach must be aware and skillful enough to recognize the opportunity and show them the path. There's a reason Calipari, Pitino, Izzo, Krzyzewski, and Boeheim, to name a few, have great teams year after year. Obviously, they do get the best talent, but the talent is often raw and self-centered, and A-level team work is still sub-par until it's true luster is carved out and revealed by the artists we know as basketball's coaching elite. Creating the space and providing timely encouragement to be great is likely the greatest gift a coach brings to the game.
And although Sac State will have to compete on a level much lower than the top teams in the country, it's still all relative in each conference and this year the Hornets will have the opportunity to excel beyond their dreams and oddly enough, that's what teamwork is all about; finding levels of communication and generosity you never knew existed. BINGO!
Let's see how they perform in November and December. There will be plenty of opportunities to back the Hornets. Let's pick the right spots and the right times.
Early games in order are: @Gonzaga, @ UC Riverside, Simpson, Bristol U, Utah Valley, @Abilene Christian, @ UC Irvine, CS Fullerton, Portland, @ Seattle, @Utah Valley.
In Part Two, I'll post who are the other favorites and who are the sleepers most likely to make us money.
As always, these are just my opinions so do your own work before betting on any sporting event.
A
Stats are from StatSheet.com
- Sac State 2013-2014 Player Stats