CarloGambino said:
Looking forward to seeing whatever you put out today, Dave!
Here you go, Capo. Some of it is from earlier updates to clients, but since you asked without the gun to my head, this is all of it.
I doubt I could touch the Rockies/Padres game. Certainly not betting/messing with that RL, not even the under. Yes, both SP's can and usually do suck. I would HAVE to take Colorado if you made me.
Fish or nothing, just like last night. Collmenter is not better than Eovaldi, the Miami lineup (assuming Stanton is playing) is better than Arizona's, and they've got a better bullpen.
I think Ervin Santana is falling apart, and although Gee is coming off a layoff, I can't take the Braves. the Mets RL price is actually pretty reasonable.
I leaned and didn't play Toronto last night, and I lean there again. Stroman CAN pitch and if Toronto wakes up against Wilson, I like the RL here. I also lean over in a day game where the ball travels better, in part because watching Stroman's last outing I do think both teams score, again, assuming lineups are not f'd up.
I don't think I want anything to do with that Tigers game. I can make a reasonable argument either way. I do lean over, simply because if ONE pitcher falters I can see the floodgates opening again. Neither team has much of a pen. Detroit didn't before last night, and Dodgers used some arms.
5:15PM-Already mad for not taking the Jays and over, but we're seein' 'em well.
There is no chance of laying -200 with Lohse/Brewers. Fausto can pitch a game every now and then. Not really enough value to the Phillies RL at -120 OR the Brewers at +110, although that probably is the better bet. I would think so for sure if that total hadn't come down.
I think the Cardinals just have the Pirates number right now, and would have to take St. Louis. The Cardinals are typically a team that when they win they win by more than 1 (although not the case last night) so I would bet them -1 if I had that option, or split my bet between ML and RL (which is the same net effect. The real scale-tipper here is the Pirates bullpen, or lack thereof, because if the Pirates have to take out Cumpton anytime before a QS, they are probably screwed.
Boston is without a doubt the sharp side of that game, but fading Sale isn't always something I salivate to do. With Boston semi-anemic lineup, I could see taking the White Sox here, simply because Sale IS better than De La Rosa and the White Sox have better bats. Now, if it comes to bullpens, Boston probably win. Maybe bite the chalk and take Boston RL there, or use it in a parlay with the aforementioned METS RL.
All morning the love was for the Royals but recently some decent cash has come in on the Royals. I did lean Rays a bit, simply because when the Royals falter, it's typically for a week at a time. Same when they win, and I do still think Ventura is over valued.
I think much the same about Elias, although he's made us money, I'm not sure it's not time to get off that train. Gibson can go either way, but just as the Mariners are better against RHP, the Twins are better against LHP. Perfect weather in Seattle and the roof should be open, so if this total goes to 7 I would/will play the over, or perhaps buy it to 7 if not.
I'd probably have to shy away from the Orioles game. I do like Norris, but not after a layoff, BUT, he has been MUCH better at home. Almost as if they're begging for people to take the Nationals/Fister, so if you made me, Baltimore and under.
I cannot get in front of Oakland or behind Matt Cain, so inasmuch as road favorites are not typically my thing, I'd take Oakland. I lean under just because there's a DH involved now, but the Giants pen hasn't been as sharp lately.