Shaka,
I just finished capping this game, and I'm inclined to agree with you here. Statistically, Cole is a little more likely to have a good outing than McHugh. McHugh has allowed at least 4 earned runs 9 times (36%), and has allowed 32 more hits (169) than innings pitched (137). However, since returning from his most recent stint on the DL, Cole is just 2-3, with a 1.50 WHIP, a 4.20 ERA and 3 quality starts in his 7 outings. That is, if you consider his last outing a quality start. He only allowed 3 runs in 6.2 IP, but 12 hits and 3 walks! In his prevous starts the Dodgers shelled him too.
I agree that it's quite likely that at least one of these guys will get hit and maybe both. At 7.5, I think I've talked myself into an OVER play too.
BOL my friend