Point Blank – October 6 & 7
PB and Palm Tree: The Wild Card Edition
As noted last week, the MLB Playoffs bring a special bonus this autumn, with Eric Strasser from Palm Tree baseball now a full part of our lineup. It will be a pleasure and a privilege to be able to share his handicapping acumen and knowledge of the sport, and along the way we should collectively uncover some prime opportunities to build out the portfolio.
On most days Eric and I will be running through our keys as part of the daily Point Blank column, including some special weekend editions, but to literally get the ball rolling the entire focus here will be on the Wild Card round ahead. For ease of understanding, all of Eric’s comments will be in italics throughout the run. So let’s begin with an overview from him that will matter regardless of the matchups, with some appropriate background to set the mood -
Thanks for the opportunity to do some writing and posting here Dave. I’m looking forward to adding my voice to the chorus of very good handicappers that populate PB every day.
I handicap the post season in a totally different way, as I’m sure most do. For me it’s all about bullpens and defense, although the betting lines are set primarily off of starting pitching. Those edges are much more likely to show up in a long series than a couple of one game shoot-outs, but that’s what makes it so much fun.
With a few exceptions, every team has at least three quality starters capable of getting to the 7th inning allowing two runs. The team that wins a post season series IMO is the team that wins that 2-2 game most often by not giving outs away on defense, has the ability to play “small ball” and create a run against a great bullpen and can close out a game with a lead. I’m also a believer in the “step theory”. It’s very unusual for him a team to make a big run in the postseason after not having been there for a while. The games are played differently and experience counts.
That sets the stage awfully well, and let me add one of my own fascinations this time around, the fact that there is not a whole lot of post-season experience out there. It leads to more particular judgments about which teams can seemingly handle being first-timers, and it will be from the ability to beat the market on those judgments that there can be money made.
Now let’s get to the games, Eric to the lead - This is a very sharp forum, and I’m sure everyone already knows that Keuchel will be going on three days rest for the first time. He’s also coming off a 99-pitch outing. For some ungodly reason he was sent out to pitch the sixth inning Friday night with an eight-run lead. Now we’ve got a young starter on the road where he does not excel on short rest in his first preseason start. Not ideal by any means.
Yet I can see the case for the Astros. Keuchel has pitched twice against the Yankees this year and didn’t allow an earned run in 16 innings. They saw Tanaka once in late June and beat him up pretty good in five innings. I discount that a little as it was Tanaka’s worst stretch of the season (he gave up 5 ER on 10 hits in 5 innings against the Tigers the start before). But what is meaningful is that the Astros forced Tanaka to throw 98 pitches in 5 innings. The game plan was great and they weren’t chasing the splitter below the zone. If they can execute that way again I think they’ll have a chance to win.
This is such a bad matchup for the Yankees. They are awful against LHP since Teixeira went down, and Keuchel gives up nothing to left-handed batters (.461 OPS). That most likely neutralizes Ellsbury, McCann and Gardner and takes Bird out of the equation. So where does the offense come from? ARod and Chris Young?
To understand Keuchel, of course, is not just working on a short rest, at the end of a 232-inning journey, but also the fact that Home/Away must be brought into play –
Home Away
Team W/L 16-2 7-8
ERA 1.46 3.77
K/9 9.7 6.7
BB/9 1.9 2.0
HR/9 .27 1.14
The reason for breaking down the categories this way is that it is absolutely not about baseball’s geometry - those gaps in strikeout rate and home run rate are rather significant. So consider now that he is a road favorite despite those splits, and with the Astros only winning 13 of 43 road games since the 4th of July.
As for Tanaka, he is a wild card from the other extreme – this will only be his second outing in 18 days, having only worked five innings vs. the Red Sox last Wednesday. That makes this a tough call, the Astros bringing the inherent issues of inexperience, perhaps magnified by their recent road failures, but not quite enough price value to take the Yankees vs. a lefty, given Tanaka’s inconsistency.
I’ll give Eric the final verdict - After all of that, the game will be played close to the vest with both teams trying to build a run where possible. Neither team is good at it. And Tanaka is superb at slowing down the running game. He allowed only one stolen base all season (Keuchel allowed 5). I just can’t see this game getting to eight runs to beat me. My play is Under 7 -101. If I see Keuchel’s pitch count up near 80 in the fifth inning of a tight game, I’ll also be looking to add a play on the Yankees at a good price in live betting.
On to Wednesday at PNC Park. Take it away Palm Tree: Let’s start with the obvious. A 97 win team and a 98 win team playing a single game to reach the division series is the most unfair thing to happen since the 1942 Brooklyn Dodgers went 104-50 and missed the playoffs entirely. But this is the system and one of the teams is unfortunately going home Wednesday. In my personal opinion these are the two best teams in baseball right now and the winner is going to the World Series.
The case for the Cubs is simple. Jake Arrieta has been the best pitcher in the game over the last three months. They need him to be great. If he’s not they don’t win. The teams are very close, but the Pirates are better. They were 20 runs better run (differential), scored 8 more runs and allowed 12 less. The bullpen is significantly better (1/2 run better ERA, 29 points better OPS against). Both offenses had a .719 OPS, although the Cubs struck out 196 more times. The Pirates also get to play at home where they were 53-28.
If you believe Cole can match Arrietta for seven innings you are getting a great price at home with the marginally better team. That’s a tremendous position to be in. If you believe Arrietta’s run continues you’re SOL because you’ve already lost all the value. So far the money is all Chicago. The Cubs opened -110ish and are already -135. I have to imagine the pros come in on the Pirates if it goes any higher.
And one of those will be me. For as brilliant as Arrieta has been, this will be the sixth time the Pirates have seen him, including the third in a little over two weeks, and for a guy that had never worked more than 156 2/3 innings in a season previously, that 229 IP workload may have his pendulum stretched about as far as it can go. But that is not my main focus – the ability to get Gerrit Cole and a fresh Pirate bullpen (their 2.67 ERA led the Major League’s) at a +1.5 -155 Run Line is difficult to pass up (there is even some -150 floating around).
In 14 of Cole’s starts this season the Pirates allowed two runs or less, which means that Arrieta could be brilliant and we could still be on the winning end of a 2-1 or 3-2 loss. In a game in which runs are precious, Cole’s ability to throw strikes (1.9 BB/9) and not allow HRs (only 11 in 208 IP) makes a big inning difficult, and Joe Madden will be playing small-ball from the get-go anyway, making it even harder for the Cubs to ever establish much distance. In some seasons this could be a World Series Game #7, with these two aces backed by teams that went 98-64 and 97-65, and the run being offered to the Pirates in what should be a tense affair is worth more than the markets are charging for it.
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