Hanna Knightly said:
The thing is, having line value does not lead to wins. Without a win, there is no value. I would much rather place a bet where I believe the result will be a win, then searching for a bet that I like & also feel will receive a boost in positive line movement.
I completely agree with Hanna's philosophy, which she made clear right out of the chute and caught my attention (in addition to her captivating smile).
I jumped into this Site last year and looked to place bets in accord with the wisdom scattered about this site (including purchasing picks) and I got my ass handed to me. Two things stood out to me as the cause of that, which is that people were too captivated by value and tried to play too many games.
I might make 3-5 plays in a given week, but as of the first of the year, following my own handicapping, I am up 50 units. So much of that success is just taking what I view as "free money." The one advantage that the player has over the house ... is that the player gets to decide what plays to make.
Case example. Yesterday, I was surprised that Kershaw opened around -200 against Mets. All year, the prices on Kershaw have been mostly too high, especially where he was off his groove and I was staying clear of him. But when he gets on his game, you'd be out of your mind to bet against him. So ... here he is going up against one of the worst hitting teams, sans one of their young aces - he is smoking hot, and all the trends favor him.
But when it came time to bet it - I was not happy to see the line at -260 (there is a reason I did not bet it earlier - bankroll consideration where I wanted to see outcome of earlier game in terms of amount bet). Still, I made a 3 unit bet on him. Now ... Colon had his best game of Season, the Dodgers hit into multiple DPs and the bet still cashed at a comfortable margin in the end, where the main excitement was whether he was going to pitch a perfect game.
Understand, there are lots of high odds games all the time that I would not come within a country mile of betting. It's not a matter of blindly betting heavy favorites. But in that spot, I had Kershaw winning 4 out of 5 times comfortably - so -260 was fine.
Here's another example. Ohio State is -425 to win the Big Ten. Who in the Big Ten is going to even challenge them?
I mostly look for what I consider to be free money bets, and again, up 50 units. I laid 20-1 (I think) for Cavs to beat Celts in round one of NBA. Huge odds - who cares? It was free money.