Gibby congrats on being a successful bettor for more than 40 years. That's quite an achievement.
I would agree that if a game looks too easy ... you probably should avoid it. Oddsmakers certainly aren't stupid. I've never documented those cases, though. Is the 62 percent you wrote just a guess, or did you actually document those types of instances?
I must strongly disagree with you saying the Mariners were NOT a good play on Sunday. What constitutes a good play? Getting the better of the line? Having a great handicap that wins most of the time? The betting line tends to equalize great and bad plays if there are such things.
I agreed with Hanna on this play. I would lay $1.10 with King Felix and take my chances.
Going into this game, Hernandez had beaten the Angels five straight times posting a 1.04 ERA during that span. Santiago had a 4.57 lifetime ERA in 10 appearances against the Mariners. He had not been in good form this month winless for June entering the matchup.
Sure enough Hernandez came in with a big game. He allowed one hit in the six innings he pitched. Santiago stepped up, too, and so it came down to the bullpens in a game that clearly fell in the mix. Certainly not a bad play by any means on either side.
I respect Hanna for putting herself out there. Get involved in enough baseball games and you'll make some bad plays. But this wasn't one of them.