people premium picks said:
so shay counts on the linemaker to do his capping...maybe that and weeping with jesus gets him winners....the rest of us prefer to do our own WORK and view the match ups first and determine if there is a winning play...after that you take your pick and THEN do some number shopping and compare opening to closing and line movement etc...to blindly assume the book has factored in all information ...and done it correctly is a mistake...after all..aren't we looking for oddsmakers errors? Bookies capp the numbers...bettors capp the games...gl jett.....p3
Shay and I agree on a lot of things, but one thing we seem to differ on is when it's OK to make a bet. He seems to be of the opinion if at the time of the bet, the number you bet is worse than the number at Matchbook, you've made a poor decision. While it isn't ideal, I think you should really only adhere to this principle at post time since the closing number is what really matters.
You should still be getting the best number available to US players. If -105 is at 5dimes and you're betting -110 because that's the number available from your one local, it's going to hurt you in the long run. But if it's 10am and -105 is the best you can do while Matchbook is -102/+101, I don't think that's cause for great concern. There's still plenty of time for the number to move your way and for you to have equity in your bet at post. Would it be better to have -102? Sure, although after you factor is commission it might not be better. But you can't blast people in Norway for paying $9/gallon for gas when people in Venezuela are paying 5 cents. Unfortunately US bettors have to make the best of a bad situation.
As for PP3 saying you should do work before looking at lines, I absolutely agree. You should go through every game before even looking at the lines and make your own number. Then when CRIS and Heritage come out with their overnight numbers around 2pm, look for discrepancies.
But if you're handicapping without actually making a number and saying "This is a good bet", it's going to be real hard to win because you don't know if the price you bet it at is the correct one.