I think it makes sense to bet the First Five Innings OVER 3.5, -115 here. Jon Niese admitted he dealt with arm trouble last year but claimed it is behind him. I don't buy it. And neither do executives around baseball who were hesitant to trade for him when the Mets signaled he may be available, viewing him as damaged goods. He's off to a solid start this season (1.59 era in 2 games) but dig deeper and you will see his xFIP is a less impressive 3.50 and his K/9 are down from last season. The Mets will be without catcher Travis d'Arnaud who is hurt but his replacement from the minors Kevin Plawecki is a highly rated prospect. The new catcher helps the over in two ways. He will hit better than the market expects yet he is unfamiliar with Jon Niese. This will be his first time behind the dish in a major league game so his comfort level won't be too high. Meanwhile the Braves send Trevor Cahill to the mound. Cahill had a horrible outing in his one start this year which lasted only 2.1 innings. His manager tried to blame it on too much rest. Hmmmm. Seems like it's possible something may be fundamentally wrong with Cahill and his sinkerball. Value on the first five over.