Sharing some work/thoughts and a few things we didn't have time to cover in the Webinar. Still in the process of looking at many variables, not the least of which is the projected weather, which I have not yet factored in. Certainly not endorsing any plays yet - but wanted to share for those that are doing the work, while I had some time. Now, I am out of time for the day - got to balance this with an actual life.
Added the BetOnline Openers in red. CRIS's are closer to reality - but whatever.
Toronto at New York:
I can't ignore Tanaka's 1.06 WHIP last season, nor his .209 BAA at home - but how much of that is the first time through the league. In this case the Blue Jays faced him three times last season. Only downside is he can give up a HR once in a while - 15 in 136 innings, not horrid, but not great. Yankees lose Robertson but have Betances (I do wonder about the psychological effect of being a "closer" - we'll see. Miller - surprisingly to me very good against RHH's as well. I don't look for Toronto to get many here. A-Rod effect - McCann best CS (caught stealing) ratio in MLB - NYY worst BA with with two outs in MLB last season. Defense ought to be better w/Gregoruis at shortstop. Hutchison having a great Spring - has been a flyball pitcher that's not done well in Yankee Stadium - Brett Cecil now the closer - too many walks last season for my liking - has kept the ball in the park. New faces for Toronto everywhere - Josh Donaldson, former NYY Russell Martin, Saunders in left - experience but I can't get behind Toronto until I see how they play "together". Projected line NYY -180/8. (-159)/7.5o (-120)
Twins at Tigers: Hughes was almost always a play-on at home where his flyballs weren't an issue in the big park - and unless and until that changes I can't back him on the road. I am actually not a fan of Price since he allowed the fourth most flyballs in baseball last year and perhaps got away with it over the years in the Trop. Not that Detroit is super-hitter friendly - but there is a precedent. April has always been his worst month - and the Tigers had the 4th worst ERA in MLB from the 7th inning on and I don't see where they've addressed that. It's still Soria and Nathan. Tigers added Cespedes but I question whether the AL has the book on him now. Maybe a case for the Twins RL - early season road teams on the RL have always been good to me. Projected line - Tigers -185/8 -200/7u (-120)
Rockies at Brewers: Kendrick hasn't ha a great Spring with his new team, and the Rockies have been the worst road team in baseball for several years - by a wide margin. Perhaps that gives them more value. He's been hit pretty hard by Milwaukee in a "reasonable" sample size. Rockies pen hasn't changed much and their closer is 42 years old Latroy Hawkins. That would lead me to think Milwaukee scores some runs - maybe over - roof probably closed. Lohse usually at least consistent - not usually dominant - doesn't walk many - WHIP 1.17 or less four straight years - usually very good in April. Certainly don't trust the Brewers bullpen with 12 blows saves at home last year. Think the Rockies get some runs here, too. Projected line: Brewers -155/8.0-8.5 -165/8.5 (-120)
Boston at Philadelphia: Interleague to start the season so no DH for the Red Sox which usually makes me lean the NL at home. Phillies third best "over" team last season - surprising - not the offense but horrible pitching. What has changed - not much. Perhaps slight advantage to Hanley/Pablo having seen Hamels in the NL. Boston clearly the better bullpen. Buccholz huge regression last season. Phillies haven't seen him - which surprised me because they do play in IL. Buccholz hit around a bit this Spring - strikeouts up - I'll be careful here because he usually does have good Spring Training. Projected line: Phillies -135/7.5 -119/7o(-130)
Orioles at Rays: When I think "Baltimore" I think "bullpen". In the 2012 playoff season they were outscored during the season - won 75% (huge number) of one-run games. Tillman 8-1 on the road last season but a 4.34 ERA - run support, probably. Beat the Rays twice LY allowing 12 hits in 21 innings. Much of that was a 3 hitter he threw at home. Not a K pitcher and can get the ball up at times. Longoria owns him. New faces - Rays bring in Astrubal Cabrerra - Trop usually an under park - no Joe Maddon could be a big deal - Cash first MLB big boy stint. Rays below .500 at home last year. LHH's have hit Archer well. But - no Markakis - Davis one game remaining on suspension - Weiters not likely to be ready - lots of "what if's" here for me. Projected line: Rays -130/7 -130/7o(-125)
Mets at Nationals: Nationals are simply going to be expensive for the foreseeable future - especially Max - hitters haven't seen him and he has no DH to mess with in the NL. Colon one of those pitchers that just when you think he "can't" he "does". Don't see Max giving up many here. Colon probably at least "rested" for an old man this time of year - but 1-4 with six bombs allowed to the Nationals last year. I always try to make a case for the underdog or even the +1.5 but especially this early I can't. Cuddyer may add some pop - at least he'll give Wright/Granderson more chances and less times being pitched around. Mets pen better than average last year. Projected line: Nationals -220/7.5 -200/7u (-120)
White Sox at Royals: Not sure I get the disrespect for KC as reigning champs. Shields' 14 wins replaceable by Volquez and Butler hit .271 with 9 homers. He was the "pulse" of the team - but on paper, they lost little. White Sox add Robertson to what was a terrible bullpen last year - but they still have to get to the 9th inning. Expect Samardzija to have a great year - he had great numbers at Wrigley and sick number with the big park in Oakland. KC a pitchers' park. No DH for Samarddzija to deal with in the AL. Ventura feast of famine - just not real predictable. White Sox have seen him a couple of time but not sure they have the bats and Ventura won't be left in if he's not on - and we know about the Royals bullpen. Projected line: Royals -110/7.5 -130/7o(-120)
Pirates at Reds: Whenever I see Cueto against the Pirates I think of that playoff game in Pittsburgh when he was hammered and mimicked. He got his revenge going 5-0 against the Pirates last season. Small park and the tendency may be to think "over" but I tend to doubt that. Chapman a sick closer - but setup men can be had if Cueto can't go 8. Biggest little change - no Russell Martin behind the plate - Cervelli little to no power and a new staff to handle, so that precludes me taking Pittsburgh at least on the ML. Projected line: Reds - 160/7 -134/6.5
Padres at Dodgers: San Diego was abysmal against lefties last season. They add Kemp (playing game one against his old team and he knows Kershaw), Myers, Upton, and Norris. Should be much improved against lefties but three of those four don't hit RHP very well. No chance of LAD RL - Kershaw had 9 one-run games, 7 of them at home last season - Dodgers no Kemp, I liked Dee Gordon better than Kendrick, and two new middle infielders with Rollins at short. Shields gets to face the NL and no DH - huge park - not many runs - perhaps SD RL here. Projected line: Dodgers -180/6.0 -175/6
Indians at Astros: With the addition of Gattis and Jed Lowrie the Astros are going to score some runs. We know about their lack of a bullpen which makes full game bets very dicey. That park is feast or famine. From the power alleys to the poles - tiny - to dead center, forget about it. Roof probably open early in the season, ball carries. Keuchel almost always good for 100 pitches and a ground ball pitcher extraordinaire. Kluber not even hittable at times and will strikeout a lot of batters. Indians not a great road team last year. First five under looks like a reasonable play. Projected line: Houston -110/8 +104/7o(-130)
Rangers at A's: I have no intention of backing the Rangers at least in the early going. They MAY score some runs but they may give some up. Perhaps advantage Gallardo early with no AL hitters having seen much of him and in that huge park in Oakland he could get away with the fact that he can get the ball up at times. Oakland losing Norris is/was a big deal from not only the pitching staff but he was a clubhouse leader. Crisp not likely to be ready - Reddick fell off the table - Butler won't hit a ton of long balls in Oakland (nor did he in KC last season). Team have now seen Gray. I never see a ton of runs in Oakland and perhaps F5 under here. IMO this one all depends on Gallardo and how long he can go. Projected line: Oakland -145/8 -150/7u(-120)
Giants at D-Backs: One thing about Spring Training I have noticed - teams that do poorly (W/L records) that had reasonable expectations going in have tended to do poorly all season. That would be the Giants this season so with that in mind - even with Bumgarner it may be tough to back them - especially against a revamped D-Backs team. McGehee at third is, offensively, simply a huge downgrade. The guy was in Japan a couple of years ago if memory serves me. Arizona healthy (more or less) - tons of games lost (Goldshmidt/Pollock/Trumbo) last season to injury. No more Kirk Gibson makes Arizona more attractive. Not sure about Hale but he's not been shy with the words - especially towards the Dodgers. Reminds me of Rex Ryan early on with the Jets. D-Backs should at least have energy. Projected line: Arizona -110/7.5 Roof open probably - small park - temptation is to take the over most every time. Giants -155/7.5u (-120) (Arizona RL coming)