BOSTON RED SOX
2014: 71-91
2015 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 85.5
MANAGER: John Farrell
PITCHING
Five middle of the rotation hurlers are currently set to fill the entire Red Sox rotation. There had been plenty of talk that the Sox were looking to make a trade for Cole Hamels, but latest gossip has Hamels potentially heading to their chief rivals, the New York Yankees (as of March 8). So, for now the Sox stated they expect Clay Buchholz to be the opening day starter. His numbers took a dramatic downtick last season when he suffered badly against southpaws, and saw his velocity drop a bit. His BABIP soared last season and as one fantasy site put it, Buchholz is a risky investment. Rick Porcello saw better numbers last season against lefties and enjoyed a successful campaign. Porcello would be better if he can fan a few more batters than he did in 2014, but we do project a moderately successful campaign in 2014. As of now, the rest of the rotation consists of Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, and Joe Kelly. Masterson spent time between Cleveland and St. Louis in 2014, getting smacked around for a 5.88 ERA & 1.63 WHIP in 128 2/3 IP. Masterson lost a full 3 mph off his fastball, and while he's happy with the way things are progressing this spring, he doesn't instill us with confidence. Miley's slider has potential, but last year's hefty amount of base runners allowed is a little worrisome. Joe Kelly has seen his numbers dip badly from one season to the next over the last three years. A hamstring injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April until mid-July in 2014. His numbers were not good with the Cardinals, but he fared a little better in 10 appearances with the Sox. Some changes could be made after a month or so of regular season action, but that's what the Sox are dealing with to start April. John Farrell knows how to get the best out of pitchers and all five will get their shot under his direction. The team also owns the young talent to make deals if needed.
BULLPEN
One of those hurlers helped immensely by Farrell is closer Koji Uehara. The right-hander was terrific the first half of 2014, but his numbers severely tailed-off over the second half of the season. Uehara will open the season as the closer, but I won't be surprised if Edward Mujica gets opportunities as closer during the first half of the season, to help keep Uehara fresh. The Japanese hurler received an 18-million dollar, 2-year deal, so he will still be considered the full-time closer. The Sox are hoping Alexi Ogando can provide 7th inning relief. Andrew Miller will be missed, but the pen should successful if the offense reaches expectations.
LINEUP
The big news over the weekend of March 7th-8th is the apparent signing of Yoan Moncada to a record deal. This team was already loaded on offense, but just got even better, although he won't jump right to the parent club. There had been some talk of trading for Cole Hamels, which often included Mookie Betts in the mix (Philly wanted him badly), but for now, it looks as though Betts will be the table-setter at the plate. Pablo Sandoval not only helps the Sox from the left side of the plate, but he's also an upgrade at third base. Hanley Ramirez will move to the outfield in hopes of keeping the former Dodger healthy. Xander Bogaerts will hold down the SS position. Add Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Rusney Castillo to the mix and we're talking about a scary one-though-six, not to mention Mike Napoli hitting 7th. Christian Vasquez will handle the catching duties, a serviceable bat and a strong receiver.
OUTLOOK
The best news about the rotation is that John Farrell knows what he's doing when it comes to getting the most out of pitchers. The bullpen is a little scary, relying on 40-year old Uehara to bounce back from a weak second half. But if the offense even comes close to reaching its potential, pitching shortcomings will be a forgotten issue, at least until the postseason. The Red Sox win total opened at 86 and came down to 85.5, and in some shops, as low as 84.5. I tend to believe the bats are going to be too good to hold in-check and the pitching will be fine - not great, but not bad, under Farrell and Juan Nieves. I can't see the Sox finishing under that opening number of 85.5 wins. In fact, if I play the Sox, the Over will be the ticket, especially at 84.5.
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