Often, when reading write-ups of selections I come across a statement that I can't place on either side of the ledger. For example,
"The Astros went over five of their last seven games."
Is this a reason to play the over or the under? I'm not sure.
But, it is easy to check. The SDQL text for going over the total in at least five of their last seven games is:
Sum(O@team and season, N=7)>=5
The superccomputers at SportsDataBase.com, will search through 26,000-plus MLB games and provide the result in a few seconds.
since the start of the 2004 season, MLB teams are:
4261-4373-415 (49.4%) OU
There have been 112 more UNDERs than OVERs in this spot. So, it looks to me like the UNDER is a slight lean when a team has gone over in five of their last seven.
A similar trend occurs when a team has won five of their last seven games. These teams have won 52.1% of the time in this spot over the past ten seasons, but they are an average of minus 120 on the moneyline, so again the linesmakers have overcorrected.
Dr M.