I wrote these articles almost 2 years ago now, but without redoing the analysis, I assume that the results are still relatively consistent. They take data from 7 seasons, 2000 thru 2006. I was prompted to repost when reading a thread discussing that teasing across zero was: "The #1 thing to never do"....
The next in my background articles about sports betting, I?m tackling
the topic of teasers. I have seen many this week discuss going the
route of teasers. Teasing is a way for a player to take the fav but
give fewer points (or eventually receive them) and/or to take the dog
and get more points. The catch is, instead having to win only 1 game in
a regular ATS bet, you have to win more:
2 games in a standard 6 point teaser
3 games in a 10 point teaser
4 games in a 13 point ?super? teaser
I?ve
analyzed teasers from 2000 onwards. That gives us 7 full seasons of
data. I looked at teasing from two vantage points: The first is teasing
the Underdog, the second is teasing the Favorite.
The point of
this article is to get actual information on historical trends to help
predict future results. The main point is to show you which key numbers
are the most key to cross in a teaser, and which teasers win most often
and which do not.
The other thing you should know is that I have
calculated my %s of winning a teaser based on picking 2 teams from that
same range in the line. For instance, when calculating odds of winning
a teaser for underdogs of +0.5 to +3 in a 6 point teaser, I found out
the odds of an underdog who was +0.5 to +3 getting 6 additional points,
and how they would have done ATS. In this case, the odds were that you
would hit 73% of the games in that situation. But those are not the
odds to win the teaser, as you have to hit 2 games to win the teaser.
So
for a 2 game teaser, you multiply the odds together. For purposes of my
comparative analysis, I multiplied 73% x 73%. Which gives you 54%. So
if you teased 2 teams together in a 6 point teaser, and both were
between +0.5 and +3, you would have a 54% chance of winning.
What
I didn?t calculate was the chance of winning a teaser if you teased 2
teams by 6 points, but the first was between +0.5 and +3, and the
second was between +6.5 and +10. I calculated the individual chances,
but not the combination of the two. I will post a table which will
allow you to do the math yourself, all that is required is to multiply
the %s together.
There are many articles out there about how to tease published by
different sites, and I?m not here to talk about generalities. There are
many gamblers out there who say ?Teasers are the Devil?, and some who
like teasing. I?m not here to convince you one way or another. What I
am trying to do is show you, based on historical fact, which teasing
situations are most likely to win and which are most likely to lose.
With that said, on to teasing underdogs.
Teasing the Underdog
As
you know from my prior posts, betting on underdogs, on average, have a
better chance of winning. In fact, since 2000, Underdogs have gone 51%
ATS.
Here are the results of my analysis on underdogs, first
just the numbers, and then graphically. The numbers are in red if the
likelihood of hitting the teaser is HIGHER than that of a single ATS
bet without teasing. The cell is shaded a light yellow if the % is
higher than 52.37%, and is therefore profitable at standard juice:
As you can see, teasing underdogs is typically not the way to go.
- There
was only one occurrence of the % being higher than 52.37% on a underdog
teaser, that being teasing dogs 6 points that are less than or equal to
+3.
- Most all the other games are well below the winning % of picking a single game ATS in that same point spread range.
- As the point spreads get higher, the chances of you winning on a underdog teaser get lower.
Teasing the Favorite
Here
are the results for teasing the favorite. As you can see, much better
than underdogs, and in most cases, better than picking the favorite in
a single game ATS.
- With favs of a FG or less, every tease presented better odds than picking the individual game ATS.
- The
highest odds (aside from very high point spreads above 14) came when
teasing the favorite by 13 points in a game where the spread is more
than a FG but less than a TD.
- There are certain times when
teasing a favorite is beneficial, and certain times when teasing a
favorite should be avoided. These are shown in the table and graph
above.
Situational Teasing
The
other thing this analysis did not take in to account is the element of
situational teasing. Such as when the total is high or low, or the
public perception of certain teams based on their record. For instance:
As
you can see, in the case where the line was very high and the total was
not extremely high(<45)favs were more likely to cover in all
situations, especially if teasing by 10 or 13 points.
In a
similar situation, with a high line, but a higher total (>45), the
underdog was more likely to cover in a 6 or 13 point teaser. Notice how
the 10 point teaser did not help at all in this case.
There
are likely many other situational spots where I could look up teaser
information, and find high odds of winning a particular teaser based on
line and tease type. However, I've already taken too much time as it
is, and that will have to be done another time.
Table to perform your own Odds Calculations:
Lastly,
I?ll include a table which you can use to calculate your own odds.
Essentially, if you want to do a calculate your odds of winning, you
take the percentage from the appropriate box for the starting line you
want to use, and multiply it times the percentage for the next team in
the teaser. If it?s a 2 team 6 point teaser, you multiply Team 1?s % x
Team 2?s %. In a 4 team 13 point teaser, you multiply all 4 teams?s %
to come up w/ your odds of winning.
From this table, you should see:
- If
you want to take a 6 point teaser on a favorite, best chances of
winning are if the spread is a FG or less, or if the spread is higher
than a TD. Whereas the odds of success on a 13 point teaser on a
favorite does not have as large a difference between original point
spreads.
- When teasing an underdog, your chances are highest
when you tease a small underdog. Taking large underdogs in teasers is
not as wise.
Overall summary points:
- While many say teasers are sucker bets, that is not always the case.
- The time to take teasers are if you want to tease favorites, particularly in a 10 or 13 point teaser.
- However,
in most all other cases (with a few exceptions), you have better odds
of just getting individual games correct than you do of hitting a
teaser.
- The exceptions are certain opening lines have
better odds of hitting than others. The tables above shows these
situations, and show when certain teasers (6, 10 or 13 point) are more
wise to play due to their odds of hitting.
- Remember, just
because a teaser has high odds historically has nothing to do with its
ability to win on a certain future date. Smart and accurate capping
should occur, and when certain games are determined to be high
percentage plays, and the likelihood of hitting that teaser is high
based on the historical data presented above, teasers are perfectly
acceptable.
- In general, more people lose teasers than those
who win them. And more people lose playing teasers than when they make
standard ATS plays. Essentially, teasers typically produce more money
for outlets than regular plays, so remember that when jumping at a
?easy teaser?
I hope this information, while
difficult to explain (and I?m sure follow along), was made easier to
comprehend through the use of the graphs and charts. Good luck capping
this week and the rest of this season!