Professional bettors keep getting burned by betting the no on the 'Will there be a safety?' Super Bowl prop. Next year you will likely hear them saying they plan to bet it again despite the fact they keep losing. If it's a sharp bet then why let a little short term variance change your mind, right?
Not so fast my friend.
As the NFL increases in popularity the Super Bowl becomes a bigger and bigger event each year. There is so much scrutiny on the game, it feels like the entire world is watching. It's always been a big game obviously but it seems to keep growing in popularity. Super Bowl Sunday has turned into a national holiday.
Well the players who play the game are human beings and are not immune from feeling pressure and succumbing to nerves. This leads to mistakes being made that result in safeties. We saw it with Tom Brady in the end zone a few years ago and most recently with the Bronco's center/qb exchange this year. I believe the magnitude of the game was partially responsible for these errors that resulted in safeties. I don't think we would necessarily see the same mistakes made in a non Super Bowl setting or even in previous Super Bowls when the NFL was less popular.
I don't think betting the no on the 'Will there be a safety?' prop is as sharp a bet as the pros think it is.