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My 92 most-important NFL betting trends (Week 15)

Thread Starter My 92 most-important NFL betting trends (Week 15)
Joined: 06/21/2006
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Redskins @ Falcons (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.

Atlanta only 2nd team with 3-10 record in last 25 years to be favored by more than 6 points.

The next game after a loss: Atlanta 24-8 ATS last 32

Vegas consensus: no adjustment between Washington quarterbacks

Coach Smith as a favorite: 36-22 ATS (62%) in his coaching career

(Redskins) Any NFL underdog that lost by 30+ last game: 61.4% the next game (since 1990)

Redskins giving up most points per game in league

Falcons defense yields the best QB Rating to opponents
Redskins defense yields the second best QB Rating to opponents

Before last week’s games, Atlanta was only a 2.5 point favorite in this game

49ers @ Buccaneers (+5.5) -- 1 p.m.

Teams the week after playing Seattle: 18-37-4 (33%) the next week (last 4 seasons)
Teams FAVORED the week after playing Seattle: 5-18 ATS last 23

Bucs 5-19 ATS as a home underdog

Tampa and Jags only two teams gaining less than 300 yards per game.

49ers gaining least passing yards per game in NFL

Tampa’s +13 is best turnover differential in NFC
(typically teams so “lucky” with turnovers have a winning record)

Cardinals @ Titans (+3) – 4:25 p.m.

Home teams has covered only 3 of last 13 Titans games

Cards (8-4 SU last 12 games): losing only: at SF, at Saints, at Philly, vs. Seattle

Cards covered only 42% on road since 2002 (39-54-3)

Saints @ Rams (+6) -- 1 p.m.

Saints have covered 16 of 21 regular season games under Coach Payton

Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 89-60 ATS (60%) in his coaching career

Saints most road wins (SU) of any team in the NFL the last 5 seasons
Saints as a road favorite: 6-14 ATS last 20 under Coach Payton

Before last week’s game, the odds on this game: Saints -4.5

Seahawks @ Giants (+6.5) -- 1 p.m.

Giants have not been a bigger home underdog since 2007.

Seattle: 20-7 ATS overall last 27 games

Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (51-23-1)
On road during same period: 41% (31-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 96-54-2 (64% winners)

Giants at home: only 2 of 14 winning seasons ATS

Counter intuitive: 
Seattle: 9-1 ATS the week AFTER playing San Francisco

Seattle gains most yards per pass attempt on offense
and their defense gives up the least yards per pass attempt

Giants -13 worst turnover differential in NFL

 Bears @ Browns (+1.5) -- 1 p.m.

The SU winner of the last 25 Cleveland games has covered 22 times (spread has mattered only three times)

Vegas making no adjustment in power rankings between Chicago QBs

Chicago does it with offense:
3rd best offense in league on a per play basis
28th best defense in league on a per play basis

Bears defense has yielded over 200 yards rushing per game (last 7 games)

No team has a better defense than Browns (yards per play)

Bears off a dominate national TV performance (MNF)

Texans @ Colts (-5.5) -- 1 p.m.

Colts in December: 10-3 ATS

Last 6 games without Reggie Wayne: trailed by double digits at halftime in 5 of them.
First 7 games of season that happened zero times! (h/t ESPN Stats & Info)

Colts off a loss: 12-0 ATS next game

Colts/Texans: Home team has covered 6 of 7 in series.

Texans: only 2 teams yield less yards per game

Last season, Colts first 11-5 team EVER to be outscored on the season
Once again they have been outscored by opponents this season

Colts have been outgained by over 400 yards on the season
(only 5 teams in the league worse)

Houston has a bad record with good stats
out-yarding opponents by more than all but 3 teams.
(Broncos, Saints, Seahawks)

Bills @ Jaguars (+2) -- 1 p.m.

Only fourth time in 5 years Bills have been a road favorite

True home team in Bills games: 13-1 ATS (ignoring game in Canada)

Bills last 38 games: lost against the spread by a NET 159 points combined

(Jags) Any NFL team following a win as a home underdog: 6-25-1 ATS

Bills, after losing on the road: 20-6 ATS the next game

Patriots @ Dolphins (pick) -- 1 p.m.

Road team in Miami games 56-36 ATS

Home team has covered 8 of 9 Patriots games

First time Patriots not favored over Dolphins since 2003

4 games before last week (receivers healthy),
Brady completed 70% of passes (115 of 164)
4 games before that: completed only 52% of passes

Miami defense forces third worst QB Ratings for opponents

Last 3 games, Patriots trailed at halftime by a combined 40 points (winning all three)

Vegas consensus: Gronk with only a half-point per game

Pats in December under Bellichick, when NOT favored by more than a TD: 24-8 ATS

Miami has been outgained by over 300 yards on the season

Early line on this game before last week’s games: Patriots -4

Eagles @ Vikings (+5) -- 1 p.m.

Eagles have not played a road game in over a month.

Visitor in Eagles games: 15-4 ATS run

Eagles as favorites, after being favored last game: 3-17 ATS

Philly also doing it with defense: holding 9 straight opponents to 21 points or less.

Philly have gained most rushing yards in NFL
and second most passing yards gained PER PLAY

Net yards per play: Eagles only trail Seattle, New Orleans, and Denver

Quarterback Foles is red-hot: 20 TDs and 1 INT

Jets @ Panthers (-11) -- 4:05 p.m.

Second most points Carolina has ever been favored by

First time since 2007 Jets a double digit underdog to any team except the Patriots

Geno Smith: 9 touchdown passes; 26 turnovers on season
(the winner of the turnover battle covers 77% of NFL games)

Cam Newton in one-score games: 5-14 SU in career (won last 3)

The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 49-82 ATS (37% since 2005)

Only Jacksonville scoring less points per game than Jets

Jets defense yields least yards per rushing attempt

Carolina does it with defense:
Carolina defense yielding least points per game – plus least rushing yards per game
On offense, only 5 teams gain less yards per play than Panthers

Chiefs @ Raiders (+4.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Andy Reid on road: 62% ATS in career (77-48 ATS)

Alex Smith last 39 games as a starter: 30-8-1 SU

KC as division favorites: 1-12 ATS

Chiefs +15 turnover differential best in NFL
(no other AFC team better than +6)

Chiefs have been outgained by 259 yards on the season.

Packers @ Cowboys (xxx) -- 4:25 p.m.

Packers overall in December: 20-10 ATS

Packers 20-11 ATS as underdogs

Packers have lost 6 straight ATS since Rodgers was hurt (losing to the spread by a combined 73 points) 

Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 29% of games in December (10-24-1)
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)

Cowboys as a home favorite: covered only 6 of last 24 games

Dallas has been outgained by the most yards of any team this season

Cowboys defense yielding most yards per game in league

SNF: Bengals @ Steelers (+2.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

First time since 1989 Steelers are a home underdog against Bengals.

Only 7th time Steelers home underdogs in regular seasons since 2000.

If Cincy had won two recent OT games, they would be 11-1 SU last 12

Road team in Bengals games has covered only 2 of last 15

MNF: Ravens @ Lions (-6) -- Mon., 8:40 p.m.

Ravens: 8 of last 10 games decided by 3-points or less

Ravens gaining least yards per rushing attempt (3.0)

Lions -10 in turnover differential (impressive when an "unlucky" team has a winning record)

Ravens offense gains the least yards per play in the league.  

League-Wide Stat: 10 home underdogs (if you count Miami). Last 25 years, there have never been more in a week (two other weeks tied with 10)


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gameday bump


RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
I am a Director of the Boards!

Joined: 08/25/2011
Posts: 5789
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Top 100 Contributor

good information thx...

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  • Posted4 months ago