Falcons @ Buccaneers (+1.5) -- 1 p.m.
Bucs: Any team off win as home dog: 4-20 ATS next game
The next game after a loss: Atlanta 22-7 ATS last 29
Off a loss of 6 or more points: 16-3 ATS last 19
Bucs: Last 42 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!
Bucs 5-19 ATS as a home underdog
Coach Smith as a favorite: 36-22 ATS (62%) in his coaching career
Atlanta: Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 4-18 ATS last 22
Falcons only 3rd 2-7 teams to be favored on the road since 1990.
Falcons outrushed by almost 600 yards its last 5 games
Steven Jackson last 3 games: 74 yards rushing in total
Falcons: least rushing yards per game in league
Teams off first win, that were 0-6 SU or worse: 11-1 ATS their next game
Jets @ Bills (-1) -- 1 p.m.
Jets: Any team off win as home dog: 4-20 ATS next game
Bills last 35 games: lost against the spread by a NET 158 points combined
Home team in Bills games: 11-1 ATS
Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 against the spread.
Last 6 Jets games, NY covered 3 (by over 10 points per game) and lost 3 (following short of spread by 26 ppg)
Bills first time favored this season
Bills: 4-1 ATS at home
EJ Manual: 2nd game back from injury
Jets offense regressing – last 3 games: only 3 teams with a worse offense (per play)
Jets: yielding least rushing yards per game in league
This New York team has been outscored by 62 points on the season
And Buffalo has played
an incredibly tough schedule at home:
the opponents they have hosted: 32 wins – and only 14 losses on the season
(meaning their home opponents have played .700 football)
Lions @ Steelers (+2.5) -- 1 p.m.
Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 23-37-2
Lions 4-15 ATS as a road favorite
Only 6th time Steelers home underdogs in regular season since 2001.
Steelers -11 turnover differential (worst in AFC)
Redskins @Eagles (-5) -- 1 p.m.
Eagles have not covered a home game since 2011!
(going even further back, has covered only 3 of last 23)
Visitor in Eagles games: 14-2 ATS run
Eagles/Redskins: Visitor 10-3 ATS in series.
Nick Foles: 16 TD passes; 0 Ints
Only 3 teams with a better Net Yards Per Play than Philly
yet, ranked 31st in Red Zone scoring (which means unlucky and should do better soon)
Vegas Power Ranking: Philly 3 points better
Big line move Thursday afternoon (from -3.5 to -5)
Chargers @ Dolphins (+1.5) – 4:05
Any home team off a loss as a road favorite: 14-2 ATS
Road team in Miami games 54-34 ATS
6th road game for San Diego; 5th played in Eastern Time Zone
Chargers: Worst defense in league (YPP)
Miami: only 30th most yards per game on offense in league
Ravens @ Bears (-3) -- 1 p.m.
Bears 1-12-1 ATS at home following a home game
Home team has covered 8 of 9 Ravens games this season
Last 6 Ravens games: decided by a total margin of 20 points
Defending Champs as underdogs, Week 5 or later with a losing record: 16-4-1 (via Marc Lawrence)
Chicago 7th best offense (per play); 29th best defense
Baltimore: #31 offense (per play)
Browns @ Bengals (-6) -- 1 p.m.
Browns: Teams off win as home dog: 4-20 ATS next game
The SU winner of the last 21 Cleveland games has covered 19 times (spread has mattered only twice)
Clev/Cincy: Favorite has covered only 1 of last 13 games when these teams play each other.
Road team in Bengals games has covered only 1 of last 12
Browns off bye; Bengals are playing 11th straight week, off 2 straight road OT games.
Browns 5-0 ATS with QB Weeden does NOT start.
Only 3 teams with a better "Net Yards Per Play" than Cincy.
Browns have the best defense in league (per play) – but the worst Red Zone defense (which means they have been unlucky and likely will improve soon)
Browns ranked 24th in Vegas Rankings. Bengals: 8th
Raiders @ Texans (-7) -- 1 p.m.
Raiders: Any road dog off a road loss: 64% since 2003
QB Pryor slowed by MCL injury
Houston: giving up least yards per game in league
Vegas Rankings: Raiders 3rd worse team in NFL
First line on this game in May: Houston -7.5 (implying that Oakland has been almost as disappointing as Houston)
Cardinals @ Jaguars (+8) -- 1 p.m.
Biggest Road Favorite for Arizona since 12/20/2009
Cards covered only 41% on road since 2002 (38-54-2)
Cards: last 3 games, and 4 of last 5, have been at home
Jags: 3-11 ATS run
Each of Jags 8 losses on season by double digits
Teams off first win, that were 0-6 SU or worse: 11-1 ATS their next game
Only 3 teams with a better defense (per play) than Arizona
SNF: Chiefs @ Broncos (-8) – 8:30 p.m.
First time in at least 25 years that a 9-0 or better NFL team has been an underdog of any size in any game.
Undefeated Chiefs have not played a single team this season currently with a winning record.
Denver has not beaten a team with a winning record currently.
Alex Smith last 35 games as a starter: 29-5-1 SU
Denver ATS at home (24-38) since 2006
Denver/KC: Underdog has covered 6 of 7 in series.
Undefeated teams (4-0 or better) off bye: 13-1 ATS
Coach Reid off bye: 14-1 SU (11-4 ATS)
Andy Reid on road: 63% ATS in career (76-47 ATS)
Denver scores 41.2 ppg (#1 in league)
12 points per game separates Denver from the #2 team (Saints at 29 ppg)
12 points per game separates the #2 team from the 30th highest scoring team
Denver: 2nd best defense in NFL for yards per rush attempt. KC worst in league in same category.
KC: +15 in turnover differential: best in NFL
Denver: #1 in Vegas Rankings; KC #7
First Vegas line on this game (in May): Denver -7.5 (Has Denver really exceeded expectations as much as KC has?)
Denver has gone OVER 8 of 9 games this season
Vikings @ Seahawks (-12.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Minny: Teams off win as home dog: 4-20 ATS next game
Seattle: 17-7 ATS overall last 24
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (49-23-1)
On road during same period: 40% (30-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 94-53-2 (64% winners)
Only Denver gains more yards per passing attempt than Seattle
49ers @ Saints (-3) -- 4:25 p.m.
Last 4 seasons under Coach Payton, only 3rd time not bigger than a FG favorite at home.
49ers: Off a SU loss when favored: 13-1-1 ATS the next game
Saints have covered 14 of 17 regular season games under Payton
Saints under Coach Payton have covered 14 straight at home.
SF: Coach Harbaugh 10-0 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
Coach Harbaugh has lost 9 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only once.
Vegas Rankings say exactly even teams; is New Orleans home worth more than 3 points? Many say yes.
Packers @ Giants (-5) – 4.25 p.m.
Home team in Packers games have covered 13 of 17 ATS
Giants at home: only 2 of 14 winning seasons ATS
Packers 20-9 ATS as underdogs
Packers defense has yielded 17 TD passes with only 3 interceptions
Only 3 teams with a better defense (per play) than Giants
Giants: -13 turnover differential (worst in NFL)
Last week spread moved 11 points after Rodgers was injured
MNF: Patriots @ Panthers (-2.5) -- 8:40 p.m.
First time Panthers ever favored against a team with a win percentage better than .750 (after week 4) when the opponent is not rest starters.
Panthers covered last 5 games (by a combined 81 points)
Cam Newton in one-score games: 3-14 SU in career (after win last week!)
Bill Belichick with Patriots: 36-18-1 ATS (67%) as underdog.
Patriots 11-1 SU on MNF (9-3 ATS)