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My 76 personal NFL handicaping notes (week 14)

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Thread Starter My 76 personal NFL handicaping notes (week 14)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15695
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*** NFL

Tennessee at Indianapolis -5

Luck’s QB Rating #29th in NFL.

Luck: 9 TD, 3 INT at home; 8 TD, 13 INT on road

Titans fired O-coordinator: scored 3-points in first 58 minutes of game last week.

Titans: 2nd worst pass D basked on QBR.

Colts only team in NFL to have outgained last 7 opponents.

Baltimore at Washington -2.5
opened pick’em

Skins are weak at home:
only winning 3 of their last 12 games in Washington

Shanahan: 4-21 ATS as a home favorite last 25 games

RG3: 17 TD, 4 INT on season

Wash: best offense in NFL (YPP basis)

Ravens on road: 2nd worst offense in NFL (YPP basis)

Ravens: outgained 7 of last 8 games

Redskins: lost 7 straight against the spread after playing Giants

St. Louis at Buffalo -3

Jeff Fisher is 83-53 ATS (61%) in career as an underdog.

Rams 1 of only 12 teams with a positive net yards per play average.

Rams have lost 10 straight games the week after playing 49ers.

NY Jets at Jacksonville +2.5
Opened 3

Based on betting odds, 41% chance Mark Sanchez will be BENCHED during this game.

Jacksonville: worst running team in NFL

Atlanta at Carolina +3.5

Coach Smith 32-16 ATS as favorite

Only 3 teams better net YPP than Panthers.
Atlanta: gain 5.5 yards per play on offense. Gives up 5.5 yards per play on defense.

No team has a better record than Atlanta
but Vegas considers 7 other teams to actually be better.

Carolina: lost only 2 games by more than 6-points this season.

Chicago at Minnesota +3

Minny does not do well against good teams:
covering only 4 of 20 vs. team with winning record

Bears have won and covered 6 straight vs. Minny

Vikings best running team in NFL (YPP)

Minny 5th net yards per play.
Chicago 22nd net yards per play.

Based on betting odds, only 55% chance Ponder will be starting QB for Vikings next season.

Dallas at Cincinnati -3

Jason Garrett, the week after playing Philly, has never covered the spread.

Last 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 73% of Dallas games (32-12 ATS)

Bengals over DOUBLE opponents rushing yards last 3 games.

Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 28% of games in December
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)

San Diego at Pittsburgh -7

Coach Tuner in December is 18-4 SU

San Diego’s last 10 games,
lost to every team they played other than the Kansas City Chief.

Steelers (in the last 4 season) have won 76% of games (29-9) with Troy Polamalu in line-up. 50% (11-11) of games without.

Big Ben career QB rating: 93 | Rating first game back after missing games: 74

9 of last 10 Steelers gamed decided by a TD or less.

Chargers lost 6 of 7 ATS in ET (10 am body clocks for SD in this game)

Kansas City at Cleveland -6.5
opened -5

Effect of tragedy greater for KC this week?

Crennel, Brady Quinn, and Peyton Hillis left Cleveland on bad terms.

Brandon Weeden: more INTs than touchdowns on season.

Browns: Only second time favored this season.
Browns: Only 4th time this big a favorite the last 10 seasons.

Last 2 seasons, Browns have won only 2 games by a touchdown or more.

KC has been outscored by 134 points this season

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay -7.5
opened 8.5

TB: Covered only 9 of last 32 games at home

TB worst in the league giving up 309 yards passing per game (no team in NFL history has every finished season giving up over 300)

Tampa: best rushing D in NFL . . . Worst Passing D

Andy Reid is great on the road, covering over 60% of road games throughout his coaching career.

The combined margin of all Eagles wins this season is 4 points
(i.e., 7 less points and Philly could be winless)

Since changing defensive coordinators, Eagles have given up 13 TD passes with zero INTs.

Turnovers: Buccs +11 margin on season, Eagles -18

Betting AGAINST Eagles with 6-pt tease is undefeated on the season.

Miami at San Francisco -10
opened 10.5

the only QBs currently with a better passer rating than Alex Smirth are:
Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and RG3 . . . higher than Brady, Brees, Matt Ryan

Off loss under Harbarrah, 49ers have yielded 3.4 points per game
and covered by average 12 points per game

Visitor in Miami games 50-25 ATS (67%)

SF: Best D in NFL (YPP); 2nd best O (also BEST Net)

Miami offense has scored 5 TDs in last 4 games

New Orleans at NY Giants -5

Giants are a historically POOR home team
Last 14 seasons
covered only 40% as a home favorite
(37-55)
2 winning seasons, 12 losing seasons

How bad is this Saints D?
Giving up over 30 more yards per game this season than ANY team in the last DECADE.
(though for 3 straight games have given up less yards than the week before)

Giants: only 4 teams with a worst defense in the NFL (YPP basis)

Arizona at Seattle -10

Seattle:
(since new stadium in 2002): 62% ATS at home (51-31-1)
On road during same period: 36% (30-52-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 103-61-1 (63% winners)

Seattle: 17-5 ATS at home under Pete Carroll

Cards: Allowing 42 sacks the last 9 games (that more than any other team’s entire season total!)

Russell Wilson at home: 11 TDs and zero INTS at home (8 TD and 8 INTs on road)

Based on current betting odds, Russell Wilson has a better than 50% chance to throw for more TDs than any rookie quarterback this season.

Arizona: Far and away the worst offense in the NFL
Arizona: 5 first downs last week.

Total = 35.5 (underdog points more valuable)

Seahawks: first time double digit favorite since 2009.

Detroit at Green Bay -6.5

In division, Packers have won 10 straight SU
and covered 21 of 29

Packers have won 13 of 14 vs. Lions SU
Lions have outgained Packers last 5 in series.

Lions: only 5 teams with a better net yards per play average.
BUT, lose in every other way.

Houston at New England -3.5
opened 4.5

Two highest scoring teams in the NFL

Pats have won 28 of 30 regular season games at home SU

Patriots lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this season.
Patriots won 8 games by a combined 174 points this season

Patriots have NOT lost turnover battle in any game this season.

Texans have covered 6 straight as underdog.

3rd straight road game for Texans: last 10 seasons, better than 50% ATS.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Tuesday: Vegas NFL Power Ratings from Steve Fezzik

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23208
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Top 10 Contributor

Great stuff RJ!

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

IveyWalters
Joined: 06/06/2012
Posts: 930
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I love everything your personal notes say about the Titans/Colts game.  I have many other reasons why they are the play but I'm confused that Colin AND the Wise Guys like the Titans.  Should I write a rebuttal?  

Ivey Walters Record: 83-47-3  63.84%  +72.21 units

Pregame Total Record: 222-131-6  62.88%  +239.37 units.

2013 LVH Super Contest:  51-31-3  62.19%

 

 

dennistyler
Joined: 12/12/2009
Posts: 15973
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IveyWalters

  Should I write a rebuttal?  

Yes, please. Wink

Thanks for the nuggets, RJ!

3 Year NHL Record

279-203-18 (+91.535)

@dennistyler

www.wecoverspreads.com

frank hendon
Joined: 09/13/2012
Posts: 2737
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Top 500 Contributor

GREAT  info. I really appreciate it.

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