TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

NFL Vegas Rankings – Week 12 

 

 

 Hm

True
  Power 

Bettor
  Bias 

Spread
  Power

t1

Broncos

3

100

1.5

101.5

t1

Texans

3

100

0.5

100.5

t3

Packers

3.5

99.5

1

100.5

t3

Patriots

3

99.5

1.5

101

t5

49ers

3

99

1

100

t5

Steelers

3.5

99

1

100

7

Giants

1

98.5

0

98.5

8

Falcons

3

98

1

99

9

Ravens

3.5

97.5

0

97.5

10

Bears

3

97

0

97

11

Cowboys

1.5

96

0.5

96.5

12

Saints

3.5

95.5

0

95.5

13

Seahawks

4.5

95

0

95

14

Buccs

2

94.5

0.5

95

t15

Bengals

2

93.5

0

93.5

t15

Lions

3

93.5

0

93.5

t15

Redskins

2

93.5

0

93.5

18

Chargers

3

93

0

93

19

Vikings

2.5

92.5

0

92.5

t20

Dolphins

1.5

91.5

0

91.5

t20

Eagles

2.5

91.5

-0.5

91

t22

Bills

3

91

0

91

t22

Jets

2.5

91

0

91

t22

Panthers

2

91

0

91

t25

Browns

3

90

0

90

t25

Colts

3

90

0.5

90.5

t25

Rams

3

90

0

90

t28

Cardinals

3

89.5

0

89.5

t28

Titans

2

89.5

0

89.5

30

Raiders

2.5

88

0

88

t31

Chiefs

3

87

-1.5

85.5

t31

Jags

0

87

-1.5

85.5

Vegas Rankings voters include Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com (@RJinVegas)