Play Title: 9 Star NFC Championship Survivor Play Selected: Point Spread: 6.0/-103
Analysis: I'm not sure if QB Aaron Rodgers will face as feeble-minded of a HC like Jason "Spike" Garrett who passes on 3rd & 2 with Elliott in his arsenal, but I do know he's proven he can adapt to rougher things than he'll be facing this week when he proved himself time and time again during the past 8 games. Even the healthier Atlanta squad have not matched Green Bay's offensive output of scoring 30+ points in their past 6 consecutive outings. For this matchup, the MUSHES are plowing the Falcons' fields after finding WR Jordy Nelson might be a no-go. But if they've done their homework correctly, they would have found 7 missing players from meeting 1 that the Packers NOW have available for this game, spear-headed by LOLB Clay Matthews (better outside this year than in the middle last season). There's no doubt that DC Dom Capers will have added some wrinkles to his base "30" front with occasional blitzes uncommon to their 1st meeting @ this venue. It will be pivotal for Matthews & LILBRyan to be sound in techniques when occupying themselves in space and hope that ROLB Julius Peppers & MLB (out of U.S.C.) Nick Perry can apply pressure on Matt Ryan (14/0 TD/INT ratio his last 5-36 PPG his last 4 @ home). It will also be key to contain Atlanta's one-two punch of Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman to short gains when running on the edges & between tackles. The Falcons will still get some successful drives if GB plays the run since they have a bevy of receivers like Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel & TE Austin Hooper. The games' SU winner hinges on how effective the Packers' secondary will be in playing nickle coverage with 5 DB's as SS Micah Hyde, CB LaDarius Gunter & S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix must be effective in downfield routes. On the flip side, HC Dan Quinn (Morristown, NJ native just 1 win away from the Super Bowl in only his 2nd season) will have to effectively put a Spy Back on the elusive in the pocket Aaron Rodgers to limit runs for 1st downs. Rodgers needs to establish the run using converted WR Ty Montgomery as his featured back but using Aaron Ripkowski for goal line & short yardage situations. the reason why I like this pick is Rodgers' unparalleled ability to extend plays & his brilliant execution with a 21/1 TD/INT ratio (6/1 post-season) his past 8 games including going 318 consecutive pass attempts before that INT in Dallas. My bottom line says to look for Rodgers to occasionally use (but effectively) a hurry-up in given situations that prevents the Dirty Bird "D" from getting in necessary substitutions. I just hope the officials DON'T slow up this process giving Atlanta an advantage. yes, it will be tough to stop the 8th-highest scoring offense in NFL history, but I feel they won't be running @ 100% after Seattle. Extensive homework into the database reveals that NFL home favorites are a window no-show going 20-36-6 ATS after taking on Pete carroll & his Seahawks--including 1-7 ATS from Game 14 or deeper! Past numbers clearly show that only 18 of 34 teams that scored 36 (Atlanta won 36-20 last week) or more points in a divisional round win have actually survived SU the following week going back to 1981! The dagger for us has to be those SAME TEAMS have gone a ticket-ripping 10-23-1 ATS in the championship round while ALSO going an Antarctic-like 5-17-1 ATS since 1992. In addition, the visiting QB in 6 Matt Ryan-Aaron Rodgers hookups have gone a very consistent 5-1 ATS. Even though the Falcons are flying high, I give a coaching edge to the experienced Mike McCarthy (2-1 ATS in title games) versus Dan Quinn whose making his 1st appearance. I'm not buying into the Green Bay secondary being THAT banged-up. They have ENOUGH skill position players left to keep this game competitive. The rest relies upon who wins the chess match. We'll grab Rodgers with a 36/4 TD/INT over the long haul (last 13 games) whose been brilliant in games from December on forward covering @ a 36-16-2 clip.ADDED NOTE: I can't believe the insanity a Las Vegas bettor is taking riding a 11/28/16 $300 bet that's won in let-it-ride mode up to here for a current parlayed win total of $28,213. This dufus is insanely risking it ALL to win $76,000 today. If he wins through the Super Bowl, it will pay $175,000. Buddy, it's time to get smart & hedge your bet since $28,213 is now on the line. Ok, here it is! The key number to remember is 7. Why? Because these same Cheeseheads are a brilliant 6-1-2 ATS as playoff underdogs of 7 or fewer (7-1 ATS as playoff visitors). We're going to the Georgia Dome for its finale to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -163) as my 9 Star NFC Championship Survivor!
Mike's 15 Star NFL Playoff Game Of The Year will be released on tonight's AFC Championship.
|