Hello fellow cappers.
I gotta finish strong here, too much bad reading on my part the last two weeks. Can't help other out if you can't help yourself out first, and I dug myself a big hole recently.
first game:
GB Packers @ ATLANTA FALCONS -5
My Pick: FALCONS -5.
I look for the Falcons to jump on that bad D for a big lead early. GB has the best out-of-the-pocket QB In Rodgers, the best I can ever remember and my memory of games goes back to Super Bowl 1, and Rodgers is the QB you want to get you back in any game, which he will do here.
But once FALCONS make their in-game-adjustments( the TOP variable most Handicappers overlook badly), they will regroup and put a few more TD's to put the game away AND cover the generous 5 points. Since I placed the wager, I see 6's all over the place, and if you can "buy" a point or even two points this might be significant to you, but you pay BIG Juice to buy points, etc.
The O/U: Playoff-Historic setting at 60. Wow. BIG number, BUT they played earlier in the year, both looked at their peak-performances, and posted 65, with FALCONS winning 33-32. I get to pat myself on the back as I took the Pack +3, and those more commonly seen one point Regular season games came in to play; just see my Picks on this Forum's picks page and you will see that pick.
I am taking the OVER 60. Yes.
two things:
1) If I am wrong about the FALCONS jumping all over that bad D of the Pack, QB Ryan also has the capability to get you back in any game, as their WR's can score on any big bomb play or the busted play. If th ePack is up 17-10 halftime, I still should get 33 points the second half.
2) The Pack D is just not capable of holding FALCONS to anything under 30 points, that's 4 TD's, a FG or one botched PAT, etc. I am looking at FALCONS scoring 45. I only need Rodgers to get me 2 TD and a FG to cover, or any combo close to that. Now look at how GB jumped all over DALLAS last week. I has DALLAS, thinking that their D could contain Rodgers enough, but that obviously was so wrong. Yet, as good as GB looked, DAL managed to get back in that game even with the dink-and-dunk rookie Das Prescott as QB. I should have known to rely on the proven stat of Rookie QB's losing their first ever Playoff game, but take out that scrub game Week 17 vs. Philly, the DALLAS team was only beaten by ONE team in the NFL all year long: the NYGiants, a Division Rival, who got 'em twice. DAL beat everyone else. So this error on my part leads me back many years ago when another NFL bitch-slapping team, also a number one seed, that only had trouble with ONE team, was the JAX Jags, also a Division Rival, who went 14-2 in 1999, only to lose TWICE to an improving, pesky team Tennessee Titans. The JAGS were the 2008 Patriots during the Regular Season, stomping opponents and I recall 30 point leads 20 minutes into some games. Yet, for some reason, they just could not handle Titans w/ McNair the QB. A good enough O, which the Pack has, was easily the one factor why they beat DALLAS last week. My bad.
Pittsburgh Steelers at NEW ENGLAND Patriots -6.
Pick: PATRIOTS -6.
I know. Laying a TD with Big Ben and the other B's that ARE the toughest trio to stop on O.
But Belichick is tasting the chance to put his Franchise to a record-setting Super Bowl appearance to NINE. So are the Steel ready this game to do the same number. Both Franchises should be the model for every NFL owner, but hey, I am here in S. Cal mucking around with my mundane activities while those Owners are making BILLIONS off of their products. Who am I to tell them anything( even if I am right 100%, they wouldn't give me the time of day. The WORST Franchise would have Security throw me out if I came in with the best business plans to help them for free).
The PATS have the better Head Coach, and even QB with Brady. Big Ben is also great in his own right, I have him # 5( Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford then Big Ben). But the D. I think Pitt D has been a combination of smoke-and-mirrors, easier schedule, and the reports of the flu ravaging their camp can't help. QB Mettenberger might not take the flight. PATS seem to have the Steel's number anyway; the Steel D does not match up well against Brady, as Brady can read D's real well, right? HC Tomlin shows lapses every now and then, and is lucky that the Steel Top Brass doesn't like to change HC like the 25 loser teams in the NFL. Tomlin couldn't last two years on ANY of those 25 I just mentioned.
The O/U is set at 49.( Now it is 49.5 and climbing).
I am taking the Over. This is the year of the Favorites, throw out that Pitt win over KC and the Pack upsetting DAL. Both were NOT that much an upset; the Home teams were small fav's anyway.
We are looking at the Super Bowl Falcons at New England Patriots.
Earlier in August, I picked GB and KC to meet. I guess this year I got them both wrong. But at least they made the Final Four.
FUN Bets - do as I say, not as I do. Do NOT do these type of bets. Please.
6 Point teaser: $500
ATL + 1
NE Even
no need to pay bigger juice with a 7 point Teaser, but the 8 point almost made sense( ATL + 3, NE+ 2. Made sense to get ATL with a FG to render this a no-bet if ATL loses by exactly a FG and NE whups up on the Steel. But I will take my chances with the 6 point Teaser).
$500
8 Point teaser:
ATL/GB OVER 52
NE/PITT OVER 41
$ 1200 ATL ML over GB to win 500( -240).
$1000 NE -6.
I will TRY to post halftimes, if I play them.
Jaxterspix