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Fezzik's Focus: Wednesday 1/11/17: NFL Playoff Power Ratings

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Thread Starter Fezzik's Focus: Wednesday 1/11/17: NFL Playoff Power Ratings
Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 5888
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Top 150 Contributor

Attached are my updated power ratings on the remaining playoff teams (along with the other teams) showing their rating to start the year, along with their rating last week, and their current rating.   Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank HFA indicates an average HFA).  To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA.  Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it  typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.

Note, most handicappers use 3 for an average HFA. Recent data (the last 3 years) suggests 2.5 MAY be a more accurate number.

6-Sep 4-Jan 11-Jan   HFA
     
Arizona 5 1.5   3.5
Atlanta -1.5 6 6  
Baltimore 1 1    
Buffalo 0 -3.5    
Carolina 6 -2    
Chicago -2.5 -6   2
Cincy 3.5 -0.5    
Cleveland -7.5 -11    
Dallas -1.5 6 6 2
Denver 0.5 0    
Detroit -2 -1.5    
Green Bay 5.5 3 3 4
Houston 1 -2 -1.5  
Indy -0.5 -1.5    
Jax -2 -4   1.5
KC 3 3.5 4  
LA -2.5 -8.5    
Mia -1.5 0   1.5
Minny 0 -1   4
NEW Eng 1.5 11 11 4
New Orl -3 1    
NYG -1 2   2
NYJ 0 -7   1.5
Oakland 0.5 -3.5    
Philly -5 -1.5    
Pit 5 5.5 4.5 2
SD -1.5 -3.5   1.5
SF -7 -9   2
Sea 5.5 3.5 4 4
Tampa  0 0.5   2
Ten  -3 -2    
Wash -0.5 1    
   
   
Buffalo Manuel
Ten  Cassel
Jets Fitz
Oak  Cook
Mia Moore
Houston Osweiller

On the capping side, I have FIRED on two huge 3* Selections this week in the NFL!  Check it out!

http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY

Steve Fezzik - Only 2-Time SuperContest Champion | @FezzikSports

agharibi
Joined: 01/04/2016
Posts: 55
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

Hi Fez,

Just curious, why are you downgrading Pittsburgh by a full point?

Also, it seems like all of the bye teams have the same ratings as last week, except for KC. What's your reasoning for upgrading them?

Thanks.

dcowboy77
Joined: 01/06/2017
Posts: 3
Waterboy
Not Ranked

Guess downgrade due to Big Ben.

Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 5888
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

No idea of Big Ben's Health......knocked em down due to the uncertainty......

Steve Fezzik - Only 2-Time SuperContest Champion | @FezzikSports

iceman61
Joined: 12/13/2011
Posts: 3763
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Come on everyone knows he's playing or spread would have shot through the roof by now, wake up people.

lets go vikings superbowl or bust.

dcowboy77
Joined: 01/06/2017
Posts: 3
Waterboy
Not Ranked

Yes we all now hes playing - but will it affect his play during the game.

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