Where sports bettors talk!

Fezzik's Focus, NFL Wild Card 1st look: Tuesday 1/3/17

Thread Starter Fezzik's Focus, NFL Wild Card 1st look: Tuesday 1/3/17
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 6002
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Oak +3.5 @ Hou  37

This side opened 2.5 to 3, but the betting markets are expecting Cook to get the Start for Oak.  An unproven 3rd string QB who has never started a game, coupled with a well below average defense, does not inspire confidence.   Hou will be going with Osweiller, a small downgrade to Savage.  This could be the worst QB match up in the history of the playoffs.

Det +8 @ Sea, 42.5

The wise guys want to bet against BOTH these teams right now in the playoffs.  Sea is injured, and Detroit is Detroit.  

Mia +10 @ Pit., 47.

Pit typically enters the playoffs banged up.  However, this year they are healthy and rested, and a force.  This line opened 7.5 and likely closes 10.5.

Nyg +4.5 @GB, 44.5.

This line opened 7.5 briefly, and blink and it moved to 4.5.  GB has enormous cluster injuries at CB.   Interestingly, the total dropped from 47.5 to 44.5 despite this, due to possible weather and certainly cold.

In the Wild Card Round, an enormously profitable trend has been to take the team with the better Strength Of Schedule (SOS), this has covered 73% going 40-15-1 ATS since 2002.

The two games with large differences in SOS are  Oak (4) vs. Hou (18) and  Pit (11) vs. Mia (27), so this trend would call for bets on Oakland and Pittsburgh.   (Lions and the Giants have small SOS edges in their games).

In the Westgate Supercontest a Starbucks employee beat the Pros and took down the big $895,000 1st prize, going 54-28-3, 66%.  What is amazing mathematically is how low that win rate was, given 1800 entries.  If 1800 entries had just randomly flipped coins to pick games, you would have expected the win rate of one entry to be well upwards of 70%, showing just how difficult it can be to pick winners in the NFL.   

I finished the 2016 year +36.8 Units at pregame , with a rock solid 8-2 Record in the College Bowls.   I have won every year at pregame, and look to start 2017 strong!   I am in action, one more time, with a huge 3* play on the Ala/Clemson game!  I will be releasing NFL Wildcard best bets later in the week after doing more research. 

Further, I start actively handicapping Basketball tonight!  Stay tuned for upcoming basketball releases!

Steve Fezzik - Only 2-Time SuperContest Champion | @FezzikSports

Joined: 01/11/2011
Posts: 2951
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Wiseguys have been betting Cleveland and the Giants on the road all season - all loserss.

Joined: 03/02/2009
Posts: 143
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Can someone post a link for the SOS rankings?

Rate This
  • 2 replies
  • 1 subscriber
  • Posted3 months ago