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Fezzik's Focus: Wed 12/28/16 NFL Week 16 Power Ratings:

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Thread Starter Fezzik's Focus: Wed 12/28/16 NFL Week 16 Power Ratings:
Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 6007
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, showing their rating to start the year, along with their rating last week, and their current rating.   Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank HFA indicates an average HFA).  To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA.  Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it  typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.

Note, most handicappers use 3 for an average HFA. Recent data (the last 3 years) suggests 2.5 MAY be a more accurate number.

QB Adjustments this week:

Buffalo Manuel   2 point downgrade

Ten Cassel 4.5 point downgrade

Jets Fitzpatrick 1 point upgrade

Oak McGloin 5 point downgrade

Pit with Landry Jones and lots of backups.  I made them an X.  Next week make them +5.

6-Sep 21-Dec 28-Dec   HFA
     
Arizona 5 -0.5 0.5 3.5
Atlanta -1.5 5 5.5  
Baltimore 1 1 1.5  
Buffalo 0 0 -3  
Carolina 6 0 -2  
Chicago -2.5 -5 -5 2
Cincy 3.5 0 -1  
Cleveland -7.5 -12 -11  
Dallas -1.5 6 6 2
Denver 0.5 1.5 -1  
Detroit -2 0 -0.5  
Green Bay 5.5 2 3.5 4
Houston 1 -0.5 -1.5  
Indy -0.5 0.5 -1  
Jax -2 -5.5 -4.5 1.5
KC 3 2 3  
LA -2.5 -6 -7  
Mia -1.5 0.5 1.5 1.5
Minny 0 -1 -2 4
NEW Eng 1.5 8 9 4
New Orl -3 0 1  
NYG -1 1.5 1.5 2
NYJ 0 -8 -8 1.5
Oakland 0.5 2 -3  
Philly -5 -3 -2  
Pit 5 5.5 X 2
SD -1.5 -1.5 -2.5 1.5
SF -7 -10.5 -9.5 2
Sea 5.5 5.5 4 4
Tampa  0 1.5 1 2
Ten  -3 2 -3  
Wash -0.5 1 1.5  

Pit is a +5 at full strength.  Since they are resting so many players this week, I made them an X.

On the capping front, I have FIRED on the SIDE and TOTAL on the Nwu/Pit CFB game.   I have been on a monster 2* run, let's keep it rolling!

http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY

Steve Fezzik - Only 2-Time SuperContest Champion | @FezzikSports

moneygreen13
Joined: 12/15/2015
Posts: 151
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Is Pit still ranked a 5 with Landry Jones starting?

Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 6007
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Pit is +5 at full strength.

I did not rate them this week, with so many likely backups and uncertainty.

Steve Fezzik - Only 2-Time SuperContest Champion | @FezzikSports

doomaise
Joined: 09/25/2012
Posts: 58
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

How much (if any) have you taken into account motivated vs. unmotivated teams in these rankings?  Or is that generally not something that has a significant impact at this point?  

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