For what it's worth, last week was another, not awful, but not good week. We cashed MIA +8, SF -7.5 and MIA ML, but lost with CIN +9, CIN ML, SEA and GB.
As we have stated many times here, we wager recreationally, and never more than a unit ($100) on any single bet. Our total bankroll was $3,000 to start the season. For this season we are down $294.31, almost 3 units.
On to this week's games.
MINN @ PHIL
MINN O v PHIL D
The Eagles have injury concerns on defense. DT and key run stopper Bennie Logan is expected to miss this game. The Eagles are normally very effective at stopping the run, but that may not be the case with Logan out of the lineup. That should help RB Jerick McKinnon to get some nice runs.
McKinnon's solid running will only help Sam Bradford, who should be able to take advantage of a PHIL secondary he's very familiar with. PHIL's defensive backfield is in shambles right now. Their CBs can't cover anyone. Stefon Diggs is expected to return from his Week 5 absence, and I doubt that the Eagles will be able to cover him. They couldn't cover DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon last week, and Diggs is better than either of them.
Additionally, Bradford should have more time in the pocket than usual. Left tackle has been a problem area for the Vikings, but that may not be the case any longer in the wake of the Jake Long signing. Long has dealt with several injuries over the past few seasons, but he's healthy for the first time in quite a while, so that should bode well for MINN as well.
PHIL O v MINN D
The Vikings have not allowed any opponent to score over 17 points in 9 straight games.
The Eagles took a big hit last week when OT Lane Johnson was finally suspended for 10 games. This was big trouble for PHIL because a rookie right tackle nicknamed "Big V" had to deal with WASH's Ryan Kerrigan, one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. Big V struggled, and PHIL's rookie QB Carson Wentz was under pressure all afternoon, hit, or sacked on a remarkable 22 of 27 dropbacks. That was against a Redskins front 7 that has struggled all season. Big V should have similar problems this week because he'll be going against Danielle Hunter, an emerging defensive end who has played very well. C Jason Kelce will also struggle to block DT Linval Joseph. As a result, Carson Wentz should be under constant pressure and may not have much time to find his receivers.
The Eagles offense typically relies on timing. The Vikings man coverage is designed to disrupt the timing of an offense and force QBs to hold onto the ball a little bit longer. That should create serious problems for Wentz, with their weakened OL facing MINN's ferocious pass rush.
The Vikings have already shut down some elite receivers such as Odell Bbeckham Jr, Jordy Nelson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kelvin Benjamin this season, and the Eagles don't have such elite receivers. Making matters even worse for Wentz, WR Jordan Matthews is dealing with an injury. He'll play, but he won't be 100%, so it's unlikely that he'll be able to get open against CB Xavier Rhodes.
PHIL RB Ryan Mathews may not find much running room versus Minnesota's stout front either.
MINN will cover because:
1. The Vikings are the better team. The Vikings have covered 9 straight games on the road, won 8 straight regular season games, while the Eagles are an average NFL team.
2. I've been somewhat surprised with Eagles rookie HC Doug Pederson. However, the Vikings are one of the best coached teams in the NFL. Mike Zimmer may well be the second-best coach in the NFL. Additionally, the Vikings are coming off a bye week, which is a good spot for an well coached team. Zimmer should have the Vikings ready for the Eagles after having two weeks to prepare.
3. Vikings TE coach Pat Shurmer was the Eagles OC from 2013-2015, and also the interim HC after Chip Kelly was fired, so he is very familiar with the Eagles personnel. That's another small edge for MINN.
4. There's also the Bradford factor. Bradford's new teammates should be motivated to win one for their QB, who will be facing the team that couldn't dump him fast enough.
5. Not only has The public jumped off the Eagles, but now the public is betting MINN like crazy. IMO the Vikings would be -9 over the Eagles in Minnesota, so -3 looks about right to me and that where the line has moved to. I bet it at -2.5, so I think that I got slight value with Minnesota.
6. There's been no real sharp money on the Eagles so far, to counter the public betting on Minnesota. To me that's telling.
I hate betting on heavily bet public teams, but with all of the Eagles problems, I can only look to MINN here. The public's not always wrong, and here I think they're on the right side.
PICK - MINN -2.5 (1 unit)
BUF @ MIA
BUF O V MIA D
LeSean McCoy has been a major reason for the Bills' 4 game winning streak, and if it weren't for Ezekiel Elliott, we would all be referring to McCoy as the best running back in the NFL right now. McCoy is coming off a huge performance, scoring 3 TDs and rushing for 140 yards on only 19 carries last week. McCoy (hamstring) is not playing in this game, and could miss even more time.
Without McCoy, the Bills should have more trouble running the ball. The Dolphins have stopped the run well for the most part this year, and they should also be able to apply heavy pressure on the QB, forcing Tyrod Taylor to scramble to get out of trouble. The Bills may also be without stud LT Cordy Glenn. Glenn (ankle) did "not doing much of anything" at practice Thursday, and will likely be listed as limited.
The Dolphins are weakest in the secondary. CB Byron Maxwell has struggled for most of the year, although he did a solid job against Antonio Brown last week. That, however, might have been because of Ben Roethlisberger's injury. Maxwell does have an easier matchup versus a Buffalo receiving corps missing stud WR Sammy Watkins and possibly WR Robert Woods. Woods suffered a foot injury last week at SF. His status has yet to be announced. ESPN reported that Woods is doubtful for Sunday's game.
MIA O v BUF D
Many people didn't understand why the Dolphins were suddenly able to run the ball so effectively against the Steelers. That wasn't really much of a surprise because MIA had their starting offensive line intact for the 1st time all year. OT Branden Albert, C Mike Pouncey and G Laremy Tunsil all missed time, but they were all on the field together in week 6. As a result, Jay Ajayi went nuts. MIA ran the ball for 200+ yards. Ajayi should run well again in this game. With Marcell Dareus out, opponents can run against the Bills, and the Dolphins should have the edge against BUF's defensive front.
The strength of the Bills' stop unit is their pass defense, which is helped by their talented pass-rushers. DE Jerry Hughes and LB Lorenzo Alexander have both been great, but they'll be going up against Albert and OT Ja'Wuan James instead of the anemic, and since cut, G Billy Turner. Ryan Tannehill will have protection, giving him time to find WRs Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker.
MIA will cover because:
1. This looks like a trap game for BUF. The Bills, coming off 4 straight wins, are now laying a field goal to a divisional opponent on the road? This is a classic case where an overrated team, on the road, is favored against an underrated opponent, at home. Miami should probably be favored by a point, so +3 is great value. 4 points, while getting a key number, is way too much value to pass up.
2. Everyone is focused on the Dolphins' earlier losses, and dismissing their win over PITT because of Ben Rothlisberger's injury. The Dolphins had injury woes that they've now recovered from. Their TENN loss was a mess. They couldn't prepare because of Hurricane Matthew. With the offensive line now healthy, the Dolphins are fully capable of playing well and winning this game outright.
3. The Bills recent winning streak hasn't really been all that impressive. Beating the Cardinals was nice, but since that win, they've taken on the Patriots (injured Jacoby Brissett starting), the Rams, who were missing 3 defensive linemen, yet the game was tied in the 4th quarter until a pick 6, and the 49ers (the worst team in the NFL), without their best defensive run stopper, Navarro Bowman. What have the Bills really done to deserve being favored by a field goal on the road? Yes, the Dolphins don't have a good home-field advantage, but still.
4. The Bills are coming off four victories, and following this game against the 2-4 Dolphins, they take on the Patriots and Seahawks. This looks like a potential let down spot.
5. MIA HC Adam Gase sent a message to his team, and just might have lit a fire under the Dolphins by calling out players for effort and cutting former starters, billy Turner and Dallas Thomas.
6. The public is betting the Bills.
PICK - MIA +2.5 (1 unit +100) and ML (0.5 units +130)
SD @ ATL
SD O v ATL D
Having a mini-bye might have been exactly what the Chargers needed. Some of their offensive linemen were getting banged up, but right now, none of their blockers is listed on the injury report. The Chargers finally have a fully healthy offensive line that should be able to handle the ATL pass rush.
The Falcons don't have a very good pass rush to start with. LB Vic Beasley was able to take advantage of an injured starter that the Broncos had on the field last Thursday, but SD's tackles are solid when healthy. As a result, Philip Rivers should have enough time to pick apart Atlanta's back 7. The Falcons do have some stellar players in the secondary, namely CB Desmond Trufant and S Keanu Neal. However, Rivers thrives on seam passes, shallow crosses, etc, and that's the weakness of this Falcons defense, which has some of the worst LBs and safeties in the league. They could have major issues covering the emerging TE Hunter Henry. The last two talented tight ends the Falcons have battled, Greg Olsen (6-76, TD) and Jimmy Graham (6-89), both had solid games.
The Falcons will have to worry about Rivers, and that should open up opportunities for RB Melvin Gordon. Since Week 1, Atlanta hasn't faced many strong rushing attacks, with the exception of C.J. Anderson in Week 5, but Anderson couldn't get going because the Broncos got behind early.
ATL O v SD D
Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in the NFL right now. The Chargers won't have CB Jason Verrett and possibly CB Brandon Flowers for this game. Not that they'd be able to contain Jones anyway. CB Casey Heyward should be matched up against Jones. Heyward is a very talented corner who is having a great year, but even the Seahawks, with Richard Sherman, couldn't deal with Jones.
The Chargers will need to apply heavy pressure on QB Matt Ryan to help their secondary, and that's doable. The Falcons have solid tackles, but DE Joey Bosa and LB Melvin Ingram form an extremely potent one-two punch on the edge. Bosa has helped improve San Diego's defense tremendously. He has been everything the Chargers thought he would be when they selected him with the third-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Don't expect the Falcons to run the ball particularly well either. SD limited C.J. Anderson to 37 yards on 10 carries Thursday night, and NT Brandon Mebane and company should be able to restrict Devonta Freeman similarly. Freeman will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield, but San Diego's linebackers have covered better ever since Manti Te'o was knocked out for the year.
SD covers because
1. This spread is off by about 3.5 points. The Chargers are a very good team that has endured terrible luck in the final 2 minutes. They could easily be 5-1 or even 6-0 right now. If that were the case, this spread would actually be Falcons -3, and even that might be a little high because ATL doesn't have enough of a home-field advantage to warrant the full 3 points. The Buccaneers won in Atlanta to open the season. The Falcons did beat the Panthers at home, but given how Carolina has fallen apart, that's not particularly impressive. Over the past 3 years, Atlanta is 11-14 straight up (and ATS) at home, winning by an average margin of 0.5 points and laying an average line of 1.6 points.
2. The Chargers are undervalued. They are better than most people realize. They're great offensively, but they've also improved on defense, thanks to Bosa. No one has caught on to how much Bosa has changed this defense. He's playing out of his mind, and as a result, SD limited the high-powered Raiders to 5.7 yards per play, while Denver had a 4.5 figure on Thursday night.
3. SD is a live dog in a game that should come down to the very end. The Falcons have beaten just 2 of their last 18 opponents by more than 7 points. The Chargers have been beaten by more than 7 points just once in their last 12 games.
3. Even if the Falcons were substantially better than the Chargers, this spread is still much too high. The back door should be wide open for Rivers. A great QB, getting more than a field goal, is almost always a good wager. Rivers is 12-4 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more.
4. Atlanta's fatigue should also be factored in. The Falcons spent two weeks on or near the West Coast, battling two very physical teams. They now had to fly home across the country and battle a team with a losing record before taking on the Packers. They could be too exhausted to be completely focused.
5. The numbers say SD is very good ATS. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games versus opponents with a winning record. The Chargers are also 7-0 ATS following a division game and 6-0 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons, while also posting a 24-11 ATS record in dome games since 1992. SD is a perfect 16-0 ATS on the road versus teams with more wins on the season.
6. The numbers also say ATL is not particularly good ATS. ATL is 2-15 ATS at home after covering the point spread in 3 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons are also 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in games after playing the Seahawks, while all NFL teams are just 11-24-1 ATS as home favorites after facing SEA. Since 2010, NFL teams with less than eight days of rest following a clash with the Seahawks are just 30-55-4 ATS. The Falcons have not covered the Vegas number as a favorite since October 11, 2015, a nine-game span (0-9 ATS)!
7. There's a good amount of public action is on ATL, yet all the sharp money is on the Chargers.
I bet this on Friday when I finally figured out we weren't going to get +7. Today I'm seeing +6
PICK - SD +6.5 (1 unit) and ML (0.5 units)