On Saturday during one of the nationally televised games, it was reported that Tony Romo had a serious back injury and would be out for a long period of time. This was breaking news that had not been reported. I have no doubt that maybe a few folks had gotten wind of it, and maybe someone had bet accordingly, but for the most part the Dallas lines had not been adjusted.
When pros hear about news like this, the last thing in their mind is to worry about exactly how much this will impact Dallas. Instead, it is time to ram and jam Anti Dallas, everywhere you can, recognizing you have seconds, not minutes to bet, and it's not time to shop, it's time to bet. The best bets are the season long ones, and they carry the greatest edge.
Dallas UNDER 9 wins +105. Boom. "Hit it Again" at another book. Boom. Dallas to miss playoffs +110. Boom. Checking other sites, and the season wins options are being pulled down. A book still has Giants +3+100 week 1 at Dallas, hit that. Check, for books with NFL Games Of the Year, bet against Dallas in any game still up in Sept or October.
After about 5 minutes of surfing, the lines are pretty much down everywhere. The feeding frenzy is over, and not it is time to evaluate.
Romo was a fragile 36 year old already, however Dallas went 12-4 two years ago with him, they are 1-14 without him. However, Dallas had no backup QB that could play, every indication is that Dak Prescott is a huge upgrade from the stiffs that Dallas put out there last year in 12 games without Romo. I will lower the Dallas power rating by 3-4 points, that's it, to maybe -2 (2 points worse than an average team).
Now it is time to consider betting ON teams that are in the Cowboy's division. The Gmen look awful. I don't like Philly. Washington should regress. Hmmmmm this might be one terrible division. Maybe it's time to look to bet ON (for season wins) teams that get to play the suddenly horrible NFC East. The AFC N and the NFC N both benefit. So if you liked any of those 8 teams "over", now you like them over even more.....
How many of you made bets based on the Romo news?
On the handicapping front, I am firing on more NFL week 1 bets 8am PST today! Season long packages are up, and it time to lock in good numbers!
In MLB, I have my best bet Monday Slugfest game UP!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY