Recap and looking at Week 13 - been indisposed a bit the last week.
Eagles-Patriots: I supposed they are in contention in the NFC East but I really wonder after the Lions game if they've got much left. All the Chip Kelly rumors and the losing shouldn't make for a focused unit going forward. Extra rest before traveling to New England. With Mark Sanchez (who Belichek knows from the Jets) and with Sprowles as the best player on the field, the Eagles are in trouble. If anyone knows how to play and/or defend tempo, it's New England. However, this game's total will be inflated due to the perception that Philadelphia scores and that the Patriots do, at least at home. We'll see how injured Amendola is - and if he can't go (again) then this game stays under.
Lions-Packers: I sincerely doubt that the Lions are "back" because in my opinion they never left. They are who they are and Stafford is not going to throw five more touchdown passes. Detroit is simply not going to make the playoffs, and I'll chalk that win over the Eagles up to "Thanksgiving". Green Bay is clearly a desperate team, at least desperate for stability if no wins and losses, now that they've fallen behind the Vikings. The good news is there is a very good chance one of the Wild Card teams comes from the NFC North. The downside is that although the Packers may be desperate, they're on the road in a division game. Tough to back road favorite in a division game - both teams on equal rest - the hard bets are the ones that win so at +3.5 I do like Detroit here.
Carolina-New Orleans: I guess there are still those that don't think the Panthers are for real. I'm beginning to at least give the credit for consistency, which is much easier to bet on. But remember this, they as badly as they beat Dallas, Dallas beat Dallas and the Panthers didn't have an offensive touchdown until midway through the third quarter. With that in mind I might look hard at this under. The Saints are bound to stop someone, and it's likely to be a division rival that they know well. I would not assume that the Saints are going to flip a switch anytime soon, regardless of whether they're at home or not. I did and do think the Texans' defense is well above average, and the interesting take away from the Saints game is that Brees' longest completion was 26 yards, and he averaged less than 10 yards per completion. Hence, under. And just when you think the Saints won't, they do, so I'll be looking at the Saints if Drew Carey says "The Price is Right".
Atlanta-Tampa Bay: The Falcons are now looking at a Wild Card after the great start, but after losing four straight (badly, more or less) I do have to question how much enthusiasm a guy like Dan Quinn can generate at this point in time. Clearly the Buc had been a trendy team, and nearly everyone expected them to beat the Colts. Perhaps THEY expected to beat the Colts, and we know what happens when you just think you'll win, especially in the NFL. Perhaps lesson learned there for this young team. Bridgewater didn't have to do much since the sieve of a defense Quinn was hired to fix allowed almost 200 yards rushing. I realize it was Adrian Peterson, but it was also at home and something the Falcons knew was coming and couldn't stop it, always a bad thing. Atlanta lost to the Bucs earlier at home so one might assume revenge, but it's more desperation for Atlanta, IMO. And the Bucs have no reason not to win this game. Honestly, they're the better team with the better players and the better coach. This is one that looks easy and may well be, I can not make a case for the Falcons here in any way. My only concern here is that the Bucs had only a little over 200 yards passing in a losing effort.
Bears-San Francisco: Clearly the Bears will be the public side but I am already leaning towards the 49ers here. Watching what they're doing to the Cardinals on Sunday tells me that they are playing hard, and of course we've got a Bears team that we just never know, and on that has been a far better bet on the road. Coming off the Packers win, even with the extra rest, I cannot expect them to simply make a seamless transition to the next game. Chicago is 1-4 at home and 1-3 in the division, and would essentially have to win out to make the playoffs. That would include winning at Minnesota, which is more likely than them beating the 49ers and the Redskins the next two weeks.
Colts-Steelers: A huge step-up in class and also a prime time game (SNF) for the Colts. Instinctively one would chalk up the Colts' win over the Bucs as nothing but a thing and that the Steelers will steam roll them. That may well be the case, but teams playing the week after playing the Seahawks haven't fared all that well. My knee-jerk reaction is that this is one of those rare prime time games that may well go over. We know the Steelers defense isn't stout, and that's being proven true in their game against Seattle. The total skyrocketed up and Seattle is putting points on the board, something they struggle to do. The Steelers probably won't catch the Bengals but they're in prime wild card position, and now a dangerous team having struggled through the Roethlisberger injury and come out smelling like roses. However, winning and covering the number are two different things. I do expect the Colts to score some, and the Indianapolis defense won't stop the Steelers from getting 30, IMO. My concern with the Colts is that after this game they've got two road division games, including one at Houston.
Rams-Cardinals: The Rams appear to be in even more trouble, Foles throws three picks and Mannion finishes the game. I suppose on the surface that'd be enough to simply assume the Cardinals will play better than they did at San Francisco, but we know how assumptions go. Some of that ineptness under center by St. Louis could well be attributed to the Bengals defense. The caveat here is that if indeed the Cardinals need more motivation, they lost in week one to the Rams at home. I can almost concede the Division to Arizona, but now they're going to have to fight the Vikings for the #2 seed, all things being equal. The Rams are not giving up a ton of points, so I look for this one to stay under.
Seattle-Minnesota: I suppose, once again, that the obvious choice is to jump on the red-hot Vikings and fade Seattle on the road, and that may well be the case. But, Minnesota is probably not going to be able to rely on Peterson all night as they've been able to do against lesser defenses. The Seahawks defense might not be what it WAS, but they are not a sieve by any means. Like many Vikings games it's their defense that's carried them and I expect this to be no exception. You know I'd try to make a case for taking points, and the intangible here is experience. The Vikings "pressure to win" is getting amped up week after week, and they find themselves in a position that's rare air to them. This is another game that regardless of the total, and it should be a low one, should struggle to see points. The Vikings have that head-to-head game at Arizona that may well decide the #2 seed in the NFC next week, so I am not overly hasty to take them, yet.
Houston-Buffalo: We know the Texans are playing well, and we know the Bills played well enough to win at Kansas City, but because they DID NOT win I don't think I can take them here, yet. The one thing Houston is likely to have trouble with on defense is a mobile QB, and clearly Taylor is. Houston just beat three teams with QB's that aren't know for running, so this game to me IS all about the matchups. I was a little surprised the Bills let Ware run wild AND let Maclin have a career day, and since Hoyer is probably every bit as good as Smith, Houston may score some points here. Taylor threw for almost 300 yards with no picks, so Buffalo may put some points up as well. Over is the best bet here, at least my early thought says so. I said before the season I liked the Texans and took some heat for that, but because of that I cannot take the Bills. I did that (flipped) when UGA played Alabama after having UGA as the most over rated team in CFB.
Oakland-Kansas City: This one is classic - what a difference a few weeks make. If this game were played two weeks ago I just cannot see the Chiefs being favored, but because it's not, and the Chiefs just played really well beating Buffalo, they''re -3 here. I am still puzzled by all the yards the Chiefs allowed to the Bills, and cannot see any different result on the road against a better team. At the very least I'd think this game goes over - but it's early. Oakland didn't blow out the Titans, but is was a road win in the NFL, so I'm not sure how they've been disrespected here. The Raiders had a 10:00 advantage in time of possession against Tennesse, but committed 11 penalties, in typical Raider fashion. They did put up over 400 yards of offense. We'll see what happens, but if you like the Raiders then +3 now or never because I cannot see it going to +3.5 under too many circumstances, like none, actually. Big coaching edge to the Chiefs, talent to the Raiders (sorry), defense the Chiefs if not solely on points allowed. The Raiders have lost lately, but to the Steelers, at the Vikings, and to the "sort of up and coming" Lions on the road.