6-1 bounce back week to get into the green.. It's a marathon not a sprint.. Hopefully can add to the units won this week!
4* San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 GOW *WINNER*
Have faded this Ravens team three straight weeks, with three straight winners.. As the oddsmakers continue to give this team to much respect. This week the line is closer to being about right (I have it power ranked Chargers +2) but the matchup and situation favor the Chargers IMO. First of all, This chargers team has a bunch of fighters. They got down at green bay and fought like hell to win that game.. Came up just short. Last week against the Raiders this team got oblitered in the first half.. And fought back to lose by 8. Phillip Rivers is a leader and this chargers team tends to historically get hot in November/December when there back is against the wall under rivers. His OLine is very weak, but the Ravens pass rush has been subpar all season, and the secondary has been a wreck. Rivers has A ton of weapons to expose this leaky pass defense. The Ravens big problem has been the lack of weapons for Flacco. Steve smith is this teams only viable passing game option, and he's got to wear down at some point. The guy is a warrior.. But you know he's hurting if he only played 48 out of 64 snaps on MNF vs arizona. Now he has a leg injury to add onto his current back injury. the second WR Kamar Aiken would be a number four on most teams, and MarLon Brown is having a horrendous year. Flacco also lacks support from his tight ends and obviously his defense. This Ravens team should not be laying over a field goal to a chargers team that for all there shortcomings, is a better team. Won't be surprised one bit if the chargers take this game outright.
2* New England Patriots -7 -125 *WINNER*
I was going to rate this as a 3* play but the -125 juice forced me to settle for 2. I'm not huge on trends but this one stuck out to me.. New england there last 34 games at home laying under double digits, they are 27-7 ATS. Also working in the patriots favor is that I see line value on this game based off of how hot miami is.. the line is around the exact same as last weeks game against the jets. Not only do the jets matchup better against the patriots then miami does, but the jets are power rating wise just flat out better. The pats homefield is considered to be worth 4 points.. And this line indicates that the patriots are only 3 better on a neutral field? PleaSe. Miami's secondary has struggled all season and now goes against the hottest offense and QB in the NFL at home. Don't forget that even though Campbell has motivated his players, BB outclasses him schematics wise and adjustments wise. Campbell is off to a good start but has A LOT to learn. Basically, I see a matchup advantage, power rating advantage and huge coaching/QB edge... Backed up with our strong trend on this patriots team laying under 10 at home.. Making this a strong TNF play.
1* Minnesota Vikings +1.5 -110 *WINNER*
The line has moved to PK most places and that is fine to play, and so is the Vikinfs -1. I am a documented 11-3 on Vikings plays on PG, feel Very comfortable wagering on this team and picking my spots. Yes, this vikings team has lost 7 straight in Chicago. not a huge factor to me.. this is a completely different vikings team under Mike Zimmer. If anything, that streak will avoid a let down spot against a clearly inferior bears team. the Vikings hate has been amusing.. the OLine is subpar, and the passing game hasn't had a blow up game.. But nobody talks about this defense. This defense is second in the NFL in PPG, and has been dominate against the pass all season. There are no huge holes on this defense, they are well coached, and matchup well against the Bears. Physical OLines sometime give this viking team problems.. not something to worry about against Chicago. The Bears have to commit 8 to stop the run.. Even that might not stop peterson.. And leave one of the leagues worst secondary's vulnerable over the top to Mike Wallace and rookie sensation Stephon Diggs. The Bears have one of the leagues worst home field advantages.. And three weeks ago had people saying they'd be picking first in the draft.. No way this team should be laying points to a likely 9-10 win Minnesota team. The anti vikings money is similar to the pro Chiefs money that came in Multiple weeks earlier in the year.. And look how both have turned out.
1* Colts/Panthers under 46.5 -110 *LOSER*
Heavy rains in the forecast for MNF.. Reports are saying colts are going to look to run gore as much as possible against Carolina, as they are trying to cut down on the luck turnovers. Makes sense in these types of weather conditions and against this defense.. I also expect a run based gameplan from carolina.. The strength of the colts is there man coverage with there corners and the panthers weakness is there wideouts.. I expect a ton of running out of carolina which is how to attack Indy.. Lots of running and defenses that match up well against the pass equals a lot of long possesion.. I think this total is off by about two points.
1* Seattle Seahawks -3 -140 *LOSER*
Never have layed this much juice in a NFL game.. That's why it's only a 1 unit play.. But there is value on this number so I'll lay the juice. Let's be honest.. Is seattle losing a must win game to a team that has lost every game ATS since romo has left?
1* Packers/Broncos under 46.5 -110 *WINNER*